Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS64 KHGX 170305

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1005 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Only minor tweaks to the grids for the overnight hours with this
update...mainly to match the ongoing trends. Mid/high clouds are
continuing to move in from the west this evening as moisture con-
tinues to deepen from the south/Gulf. As per the current obs the
the gusty SW winds have begun to decouple and we are starting to
see visibilities/ceilings fall over parts of the area. These low
dewpoint spreads/lighter winds bode well for further fog develop-
ment overnight through early Saturday morning (as covered by the
current grids). 41


.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 336 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018/

The disturbance bringing showers to the region this afternoon
will exit the area and this will allow precip to end late this
afternoon. Onshore winds will continue to draw gulf moisture into
the region tonight. Winds will slacken tonight and the set up
looks favorable for areas of fog to develop over much of SE TX.
Radiation fog possible well inland and think some sea fog possible
near the coast. Dew points in the mid/upper 60s tonight will keep
temperatures on the warm side and min temps will only cool into
the mid/upper 60s. The warm start to Saturday coupled with warm
850 mb temps should yield high temperatures in the lower and
middle 80s. Any residual fog will dissipate by mid morning leaving
skies mostly cloudy. Fcst soundings show a weak capping inversion
in place but the cap could erode between 21-00z once temps warm
into the lower 80s. Fcst soundings show PW values reaching 1.65
inches by late afternoon but also shows some dry air in the 85-70
mb layer. Will carry low end PoPs for now and see how things
evolve tomorrow afternoon. A strong capping inversion develops
Saturday night with very little moisture beneath the cap and a
very dry conditions in the 900-600 mb layer. Will carry a slight
chance of showers but most areas should remain dry. Potential
again exists for patchy fog inland and a greater threat for sea
fog near the coast.

Sunday will be similar to Saturday as warm 850 temps and the
warms start to the day will yield high temperatures in the lower
80s. A dry layer was noted between 850-700 mb with a strong cap
weakening toward 00z. Most of the area will remain dry but can`t
rule out some pesky showers. On Sunday night, models diverge a bit
but it looks like a weak surface trough of low pressure or dry
line will move into the region. The area is capped to the south
but over the north, low level saturation deepens to 700 mb but
forcing looks weak and upper level support also looks poor. Will
carry chance PoPs over the north with lower PoPs south and along
the coast on Sunday night. Monday looks dry and warm and RH values
will fall to near 25 percent. Could have some elevated fire
weather concerns mainly west of I-45. A secondary surge of colder
air will come into SE TX Monday night and temperatures will trend
cooler Tuesday and Wednesday. Surface high pressure will move east
of the area by Thursday and a warm up will begin and persist
through next Saturday. Moisture levels look benign so not
expecting precip with the return of warmer temps. Another cold
front will be possible by next Sunday, 43


College Station (CLL)      65  84  66  81  59 /  10  20  20  40  30
Houston (IAH)              68  85  68  81  67 /  10  20  20  40  30
Galveston (GLS)            69  76  66  75  67 /  10  20  10  30  20


TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for the following
     zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...Matagorda.


$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.