Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 180843
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

High pressure will continue to build down from the Central Plains
today but clouds probably won`t be clearing much until this after-
noon. Otherwise, not a lot of issues for SE TX for the day or so.
With skies clearing and north winds prevailing, high temperatures
today will be in the 60s. Much drier and cooler conditions are on
tap for tonight with lows mostly in the 40s across the FA (except
for the Piney Woods where readings could drop into the upper 30s).

Tues will be another dry/quiet day with highs in the 60s. However,
as the surface high begins moving east of the region, look for the
return of E/SE winds (and some low-level moisture) by Tues evening
and night. Lows tomorrow night will be slightly warmer; in the low
to mid 50s for most locations...into upper 40s over the far north-
ern counties. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

With the eastward exit of surface high pressure late on Tuesday,
we return to an onshore moisture regime by Wednesday that should
provide a steady increase to temperature/dew point values ahead of
the approach of our next storm system on Thursday. A wholesale
increase in surface dew points of about 10 degF is on the cards by
Wednesday evening, while increases in maximum temperature will be
a bit more meager with highs just under 70 for most locations.
Meanwhile, models continue to depict the approach of an amplified
midlevel trough that will push westward from Southern AZ/NM
towards the Western Gulf by late Wednesday. This feature will
induce the development of a coastal low/trough just offshore which
will serve as the focus for the potential for widespread (and
potentially heavy) rainfall that will develop on Thursday.

Global models have come into a bit better agreement over the past
24 hrs, though GFS continues to show a slightly more amplified
midlevel trough and resultant stronger coastal low. However, both
the GFS and EC continue to place the main axis of heavy rainfall
over the Gulf, though given the uncertainty of the past few model
cycles the potential for some locally heavy rain closer to the
coast (i.e. along and south of the I-10 corridor) still can`t be
ruled out for the time being. Too early to talk specific amounts
for the time being, but most of the area looks poised to receive
at least some measurable rainfall on Thursday with totals
increasing roughly from north to south.

The coastal low will push further towards the Central Gulf by
early Friday, ending the rainfall threat as we head into the
weekend. A fairly benign pattern looks to dominate the upcoming
weekend with highs remaining in the upper 70s and lows in the
upper 50s under weak onshore flow.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Only MVFR decks at 04Z are in/around LBX and GLS. Current thinking
has these decks breaking up while another building/thickening deck
around 3500-4000 feet (in/around the ACT area) tries to build in from
the NW. So generally going with VFR/BKN040 and increasing N to NNE
winds overnight. Any ceilings that do develop are expected to begin
breaking up around 10-14Z as drier air works into the area from the
N, then just anticipating gusty N winds and some high clouds for the
rest of the day. Much weaker N winds will prevail 00Z-12Z on the 19th
(Monday night-Tuesday morning) as high pressure builds into the area.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Strong north winds will continue throughout this morning and
afternoon in the wake of yesterday`s cold frontal passage. Wind
speeds will reach 20 to 30 knots through the early evening, with
higher gusts at times, along with seas reaching as high as 10 feet
offshore. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.
Winds and seas will diminish on Tuesday as winds become light and
shift to the east. Onshore flow will return on Wednesday, with a
storm system developing offshore on Thursday that will bring our
next chance of widespread (and possibly heavy) rainfall to the
area.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  65  41  64  50 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  68  44  67  53 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  67  53  61  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
     335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...42
MARINE...Cady


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