Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 251127
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Not much change from the previous section. Some patchy dense fog
is occurring in the area, but is largely expected to stay west of
the terminals. Key exception is at CLL, which may see stronger
impact. Also have prevailing or TEMPO MVFR at routine foggy spots
CXO and LBX, though the worst should not impact these sites.

Continue the thinking of isolated/scattered thunderstorms today
from IAH coastward. Coverage should be less than past days, and
likely more than during the weekend. Those storms will diminish as
the sun goes down, and we should see a return of light and
variable winds overnight. Some potential for fog to return, but
should not form up quickly enough to be necessary in this TAF
cycle. Will let later shifts try to get a better feel for any
degradation in flight conditions towards dawn tomorrow.

Luchs

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 403 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018/...



.SHORT TERM [Today Through Sunday]...

The KHGX radar shows a few showers across the near shore waters
of the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay. GOES precipitable water
imagery shows higher moisture in this area with PW around 1.7
inches. Upper level analysis shows upper level ridge over central
Mexico with NW flow aloft over Texas with a weak trough over the
central Gulf of Mexico. Overall there should not be any large
scale subsidence to limit shower and thunderstorm activity for
today but there will still need to be enough heating for
convective initiation. With precipitable water values down a bit
from the the last couple of days, the expectation is for there to
be less coverage of showers and storms that the previous days. Hi-
res mesoscale models generally agree with this idea having
scattered activity limited to the higher moisture which looks to
be mainly along the coast. Areas north and west of Houston will
generally be dry today with sea breeze forcing convection down
along the coast. Main timing for convection today will be from
around 16Z to about 22Z mainly along the coast. As has been the
case the last couple of days, storms will produce brief heavy
rainfall and gusty winds. A storm or two could pulse up to
strong/severe levels briefly with small hail possible.

After today, rain chances really diminish mainly for a couple of
reasons. First higher moisture is expected to move east of the
region with PW values dropping closer to 1.5 inches on Saturday
and then likely below that Sunday into Monday. Second upper level
ridging increases over Texas with an upper low forming upstream
from the ridge over the Great Basin and a trough forming over the
Gulf of Mexico downstream. This pattern then favors low rain
chances due to the subsidence and higher temperatures with mid 90s
possible for high temperatures by Sunday.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Memorial Day through the end of the week to end the school year
really looks hot due to the upper level ridge establishing itself
over Texas. High temperatures look to reach the mid/upper 90s
each day with low temperatures in the 70s. Ridge will be
suppressing any convection so no rain chances expected. The main
message this weekend and next week will be heat safety and beach
safety.

Overpeck


.MARINE...

For the next day or two, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible, with the best chances coming in the
late night and early morning hours. Otherwise, look for light and
variable - but mostly southerly - winds during the days and light
to moderate winds out of the south or southwest overnight. Seas
are generally expected to stay to stay low in the nearby waters
through at least the weekend.

Those with interests in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico
should be continuing to monitor forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center and local NWS offices regarding potential storm
formation there. Locally, no direct impacts are anticipated
regardless of whether a storm forms or not. If it does occur, it
is possible some higher seas could move into the area next week.

Luchs


.TROPICAL...

As of midnight, NHC is giving a high chance of tropical cyclone
development over the next 2 days in the eastern and central Gulf
of Mexico with the disturbance off the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Synoptic models show some type of broad trough over the
Gulf for the weekend which could support the development of a
hybrid tropical system. There will be some shear to hinder
development at times, but it very well could become a warm core
system with time as it moves north. The main idea is that there
could be some slow tropical development over the next few days in
the eastern Gulf. The system should not directly impact SE Texas.
If anything, there may be some higher swells that eventually make
it to the coast early next week. If you have Memorial Day holiday
plans that include visiting the MS/AL/FL Gulf coast beaches, you
may want to consider alternate plans.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  92  72  93  72  95 /  10  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)          91  73  93  73  94 /  30  10  20   0  20
Galveston (GLS)        87  78  89  78  91 /  40  10  20   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
     zones: Austin...Colorado...Inland
     Jackson...Washington...Wharton.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Overpeck
SHORT TERM...Overpeck
LONG TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
TROPICAL...Overpeck


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