Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 232103

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
403 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

A nice and quiet day with cumulus forming along the backside of a
slowly churning upper low just west of Appalachia. Northwest
winds and mainly clear skies will prevail through Tuesday as
lower level high pressure moves across the central U.S..
Increasing cloudiness with winds becoming more variable on
Wednesday as the region falls just downstream of an approaching
shortwave trough moving southeast out of the central Rockies. Low
end to (low end) moderate POPs associated with the surface
boundary passage during the late Wednesday evening through early
Thursday morning hours. The main question marks will be with
moisture return and upper level forcing (or lack thereof). With
Wednesday`s brief onshore flow and mid-level westerly steering
winds pulling in a more humid south central Texas air mass...there
will not be enough time to fully saturate the column by the early
Thursday morning frontal passage. Jet dynamics are not there as
models indicate no low level jet and a fairly zonal westerly flow
pattern at 250-300 mb. Any precipitation that forms appears to be
along or just ahead of the front itself. Ample lapse rates exist
for any forced parcel within the frontal zone to continue on an
unimpeded upward trek. Hence the relatively lower chances for
mainly evening showers with isolated storms and early Thursday
scattered showers with embedded thunder that will be focused over
the northern 2/3rds of the CWA.

Transitory ridging moving across the Southern Plains in the wake
of Thursday`s Mid Atlantic upper troughing will equate to fair
weather leading into the weekend. Clearing skies and dry conditions
to end the week. Possibly some minor cooling Thursday as Tmaxs
struggle to reach the upper 70s but, by Friday, subsequent days
will again warm into the lower 80s/nights cooling into the middle
50s. Onshore winds and moisture return on Sunday with minor POPS
painted out west to account for a possible weak disturbance passage
or two going into early next week. 31


Light offshore flow will continue for the next couple of days before
becoming light onshore Tuesday night. A cold front should push off
the coast sometime late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning,
with onshore winds returning in its wake. Caution flags might be
required for a short period of slightly breezy winds behind the
front. Winds very gradually become onshore again by this weekend.


College Station (CLL)      56  83  59  80  54 /   0   0   0  20  40
Houston (IAH)              56  84  61  82  58 /   0   0   0  10  40
Galveston (GLS)            64  77  67  75  64 /   0   0   0  10  30




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