Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 121807

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
107 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Short term weather continues to look rather benign with a few
mid/high clouds across the area with surface ridge axis just to
the east of the forecast area from central NE to the Red River
near SW OK. Pressure gradient resulting in fairly light winds at
all terminals. More of the same this evening and overnight with
nice VFR flying weather prevailing. James


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018/

Precipitation will likely continue to elude the region but there
may be a small glimmer of hope this weekend.

Upper level ridging will move overhead for the next several days.
A weak short wave trough will slide southeast out of the Rockies
on Tuesday. However, this short wave will mostly affect the
eastern Panhandles. It will bring some mid level moisture and
resultant cloudiness but very little in precipitation potential.
At the same time, today and Tuesday will remain relatively cool
with surface ridging in control of the near surface conditions.
The upper level ridge axis will move overhead on Wednesday with
surface ridging moving out of southeast Texas. This will result in
a return to dry southwesterly winds with strengthening surface
pressure troughing.

Upper level flow will begin to back late in the week with long
wave troughing developing over the western CONUS. The surface
pattern will be more representative of a spring type dryline
pattern. However, a deep westerly component to the upper level
flow will keep the significant moisture well east of the caprock.
Models do bring in some precipitation on Thursday on the caprock
but near surface conditions will be very dry so virga bombs may be
a more likely scenario. There are still big differences in how
models evolve the deep troughing in the western CONUS by late in
the weekend. We may see an increase in dryline convection by early
next week or just strong and dry winds.




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