542
ACUS11 KWNS 131819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131818
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-132045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1660
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Areas affected...southern Illinois and adjacent portions of
Missouri...Kentucky...and Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 131818Z - 132045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
this afternoon across the region.  An isolated severe weather threat
may materialize, but a watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Surface-based instability is increasing ahead of a
convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave trough.  Insolation in a
very moist environment (2-m Td in the low-to-mid 70s F) has
eliminated MLCIN, resulting in convective initiation and increasing
storm coverage and intensity.  Enhanced midlevel flow, especially
with northward extent (around 30 knots per ILX VWP), coupled with
1500 J/kg of MLCAPE may lead to some storm organization into
multicell clusters, posing a primary threat of damaging winds.  A
tornado cannot be ruled out given localized pockets of enhanced
vertical vorticity with multiple MCVs in the area, but the threat
will likely remain isolated and brief.  Given the isolated nature of
the expected severe weather threat, a watch is unlikely.

..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/13/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   36599043 37259016 38198991 38698976 39209009 39578978
            39668873 39518791 38748714 38048707 37208726 36608813
            36188901 36109004 36599043

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH