000
ACUS11 KWNS 141957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141956
ALZ000-MSZ000-142130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Areas affected...extreme southeast Mississippi and southwest through
north central Alabama into the far western FL panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 48...

Valid 141956Z - 142130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 48 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes
persists across the remaining part of tornado watch 48. The greatest
short-term damaging wind threat appears to be with portion of the
line moving through central AL. Storms will approach the
eastern-most counties in the WW soon and another row of counties can
be added if needed.

DISCUSSION...Greatest short-term severe threat for damaging wind
appears to be with portion of line moving through central AL. This
segment of the line continues east at 25-30 kt and will approach the
border of the WW soon where some severe threat might persist for
another row of counties farther east. However, surface data show a
substantial reduction in dewpoints over east central through
northeast AL, suggesting a more marginal thermodynamic environment
that could promote a weakening trend.

Farther southwest across southwestern AL and southeast MS, the line
is advancing much slower. Some models suggest development of a weak
meso-low over the northwest gulf that will track northeast into
southwest AL along this portion of the boundary this evening. If
this scenario plays out, the far southeast portion of the WW would
remain free of storms until this evening when the line once again
begins to accelerate as the meso-low and associated upper impulse
shift northeast.

..Dial.. 04/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   31628782 32368715 33018690 33658665 33818620 33498583
            32348634 31238747 30558813 30238865 30548883 31628782