631
FXUS64 KOUN 102326
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
626 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Mild and dry conditions with relatively light winds have led to a
very pleasant afternoon out there with temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s. Wind will decrease further overnight as surface high
pressure moves overhead.

Return flow will commence on Saturday as the high moves eastward and
winds become southerly. To our west, a closed low will move slowly
eastward from the 4 corners region, with precipitation expected to
increase during the day across west Texas into the panhandles. Rain
could enter our area as early as late morning across western north
Texas, with better chances arriving during the afternoon and
evening, spreading northeastward as a lead wave moves out ahead
of the main trough. Severe weather is not anticipated on Saturday
as instability will remain very weak.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Warm advection will increase over the area on Sunday, with more
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity expected during the day
into Sunday night. At least some instability is likely to
develop, highest across our southern/southwest counties, which
will lead to a marginal risk for severe hail in these areas.
Isolated flooding will also be a possibility for locations that
see training thunderstorms, though widespread heavy rainfall is
not anticipated.

Rain chances will be on the decrease and shift eastward during
the day on Monday as the upper low exits the region. Another
trough is expected to quickly approach in its wake, with
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into
Thursday. At least some severe potential exists with this system,
though the magnitude and location of severe weather will likely
depend on moisture return and wave timing, which is uncertain at
this time.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected with only some mid or high level
clouds moving over the area. Winds have become or will soon become
light. In most areas, the wind will gradually shift from a
generally north light wind to a generally south light wind through
the forecast period, but there is enough variability expected that
we will keep the wind direction as variable at least overnight. On
Saturday afternoon, the wind at some of the western sites will
increase from the south or southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  80  58  72 /   0  10  20  60
Hobart OK         56  79  56  70 /   0  10  40  80
Wichita Falls TX  58  77  58  71 /  10  20  30  80
Gage OK           51  80  54  72 /   0  20  60  80
Ponca City OK     53  82  58  76 /   0   0  10  50
Durant OK         57  81  60  74 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26