


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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398 FXUS63 KDDC 132248 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 548 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures are predicted for the next several days. - Thunderstorms are expected Wednesday evening and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Upper level ridging over the plains will gradually flatten out by Tuesday. This will result in lowering surface pressures across the high plains, south winds and warmer weather. Expect highs in the lower 90s Monday and mid 90s Tuesday. A fast moving shortwave trough will traverse the northern plains Wednesday and shove a cold front into western Kansas. There are chances for t-storms Wednesday evening along the front and the storms will gradually shift southward Thursday as the front slowly edges southward and stalls out. High level winds are expected to be weak so that the chances for high-end severe storms is low. However, it doesn`t take much to get a 60 mph wind gust on the high plains so that a few severe wind reports can`t be ruled out. As far as rain amounts go, they will of course be highly variable. This time of year the ensemble mean precipitation has to be taken with the knowledge that amounts will be highly variable. Given the frontal convergence, there are 70-90% chances for measurable rain per ensemble means. With the fast- moving and low amplitude nature of the upper disturbance, there won`t be much support for a strong frontal push. As a result, very warm and humid conditions are expected Friday and Saturday. An upper level ridge will persist across the southern plains and southeastern United States through the weekend. Southwest Kansas will be on the northern edge of the ridge so that thunderstorms can`t be completely ruled out given the weak mid to high level westerlies across the Rockies and resultant surface trough. But in the absence of frontal convergence or vertical wind shear, any t-storm activity should be isolated and non-severe to marginally severe. Temperatures may climb to above average levels next weekend in the absence of any additional frontal incursions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 547 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with mostly clear skies. Winds will be light and from the southeast this evening, shifting more to the south after midnight. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Hovorka_42