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000
FXUS63 KDDC 202049
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
349 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Large scale subsidence was prevalent across western Kansas in the
wake of the latest storm system, which was pushing east across the
mid-Mississippi Valley today. Temperatures struggled to reach the
upper 70s mid afternoon despite full insolation -- the sign of a
fairly impressively cool airmass behind the departing wave. The
surface front pushed well down into West Texas, but was stalling out
as it was pushing into an environment with much higher heights
aloft. New cyclogenesis will occur at the surface across
northeastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado early Tuesday,
resulting in increased southeasterly winds from the TX Panhandle
into far southwestern Kansas. The low level atmosphere will be quite
baroclinic in nature, which will set the stage for increased warm
frontogenesis by late in the day and especially tomorrow night
across much of southwest Kansas. Tomorrow`s temperature forecast
will be a bit of a challenge, especially near Elkhart (potentially
very warm) and Hays (quite a bit cooler thanks to more clouds). The
downslope warmed airmass from New Mexico will likely push up into
Elkhart but not much farther north and/or east than that, which
would lead to afternoon temperatures in the 89 to 92F range. Hays
will likely stay stuck in the mid to upper 70s, especially of some
mid cloud centered around 700mb hangs tough, as indicated by the
NAM12 model.

As far as tomorrow night is concerned severe weather wise, the
latest SPC Day Two outlook has a 15% contour encompassing Morton and
part of Stanton County with a 5% mainly along/west of U83. The best
severe potential will likely remain just west into far southeast
Colorado and adjacent Oklahoma Panhandle where surface convergence
and moist advection will be best through 00Z tomorrow evening. The
vertical wind shear profile looks pretty good for a severe rotating
storm or two, especially given how good the low level wind field
looks (1km AGL winds 20-25 knots). The latest 18Z NAM that is hot
off the press shows vigorous surface-based thunderstorm signal near
the NM-CO-OK tri border area around Black Mesa by 00Z. Increasing
wind speeds during the 03-06Z time frame from 900-800mb suggests
moderate to strong warm frontogenesis leading to likelihood of
blossoming convection across much of southwest Kansas into adjacent
panhandles. The precipitation event will continue into Wednesday
(see Long Term discussion below)

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Yet another significant precipitation event will be underway
Wednesday morning. Latest models, both global spectral and limited
area (i.e. NAM12) show an impressive signal of nearly stationary
frontal zone in the 850-700mb layer across west central and
southwest Kansas, in an environment with 850mb dewpoints +14 to
+16C in spots. The potential for a heavy rainfall event exists with
possible training storms. While a flood or flash flood watch will
not be issued this forecast cycle, it is something that will need to
certainly be considered given how much rain much of this region has
seen over the past week.

The warm/moist advection pattern really does not shake loose until
sometime very early Thursday when the 850-700mb frontal zone finally
dissolves and the flow field in this layer looses its
convergence and deformation. We should start drying out Thursday,
which will actually mark the beginning of a more prolonged dry
period as it appears the primary polar frontal zone will shift well
up into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest region as southwestern
Kansas will most likely be under the influence of mid-upper level
anticyclonic flow around the subtropical high centered over the
Southern Plains and eventually lower Mississippi Valley. This will
also spur a warm-up going into the weekend with highs back into the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

North-northwest winds in the 15 to 18 knot sustained range will
diminish to less than 12 knots by early this evening. Winds will
continue to weaken to 6 knots or less later in the evening as
surface high pressure ridge moves across western Kansas. Flight
category is expected to remain VFR, despite some high level
haze/smoke around. Eventually, winds will become southeasterly in
response to the next approaching storm system, but will not pick
up in speed to 12 knots or greater until just beyond this TAF
period. Aviation weather is expected to deteriorate by late
Tuesday Night into Wednesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  81  62  76 /   0  10  70  60
GCK  50  81  60  76 /   0  10  70  50
EHA  59  91  62  83 /   0  20  70  40
LBL  56  88  63  82 /   0  10  70  40
HYS  54  74  61  71 /   0  10  60  70
P28  58  84  65  77 /   0   0  60  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid