Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211035
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
535 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

The upper ridge that has been dominating the weather picture over
the central Rockies and Plains has been flattened out by a strong
disturbance upper disturbance moving east out of the northern
Rockies. A general weakening of the upper ridge was also occurring
across the southern Plains as Tropical Storm Beta moves onshore.

The general lowering in heights/thickness values should yield high
temperatures at or a few degrees below Sunday`s maxes.

Tonight should be mild again with southerly winds around 10 mph
helping keep temperatures in the mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

On Tuesday, the remains of TS Beta move out of the southern Plains
and into the mid Mississippi Valley. The northwest edge of this
system will move over central Oklahoma but it appears that is
about as close it gets to the forecast area before the system
scoots off to the east.

The rest of the extended period will see a strong upper level jet
moving onshore into the Pacific Northwest. An upper level shortwave
trough will move into the northern Rockies Wednesday night and then
out over the northern and central Plains by Saturday. Ahead of this
system, increasing southwesterly flow aloft over the central High
Plains will result in a day or two of warmer temperatures into the
upper 80s and low 90s. Consensus among the models is that the associated
cold front will push through western Kansas around next Saturday morning
but there is still some uncertainty regarding the timing of this system
as well as precipitation chances. Temperatures behind the front look
to be staying mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Skies will be clear except for some high level smoke that will
persist over the area. Some MVFR visibility reductions from
haze/smoke can also be expected from time to time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  54  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  85  54  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  87  54  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  86  53  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  84  54  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
P28  80  55  75  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard


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