Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190025
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
625 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

...update aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 157 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

An upper level trough embedded in the northwest flow will cross
the Northern and Central Plains late tonight and early Monday. As
this upper level system crosses the Plains a surface boundary
will move across western Kansas late tonight. This will shift the
winds more westerly overnight which will aid in keeping the
temperatures up some so do not expect lows Monday morning to be as
cool as they were earlier this morning. Lows tonight will be
mainly in the low to mid 20s.

A weak cold front will cross western Kansas early Monday. Despite
this frontal passage during the day the afternoon temperatures
across western Kansas will still end up ranging from the mid 40s
to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

A warming trend can be expected this week based on the warming
850mb temperatures each day and as a westerly downslope flow
improve across western Kansas. Highs will rebound back into the
mid 50s across all of western Kansas Tuesday. On Thursday
(Thanksgiving) the potential exists for highs to range from 60 to
65 degrees.

The fire risk level will be on the increase across southwest
Kansas the last half of the week. Gusty south winds will develop
each afternoon in response to falling pressures along the lee of
the Rockies as an upper level trough approaches from the west.
Some moisture return can also be expected from this south to
southeasterly flow but this moisture return will primarily occur
across central Kansas. This moisture return ahead of the upper
level trough that is forecast to cross the Central Plains Thursday
night/Friday may give rise to some rain showers late week in
central Kansas however at this time it appears that the best
opportunity for this precipitation late week will be east of
highway 283.

For southwest Kansas the better chance for precipitation will be
over the weekend with the next, stronger, upper level trough as it
moves out of the Rockies and into the Western High Plains. Not
only will the chance of precipitation be on the increase this
weekend but some colder air will take aim at western Kansas late
this weekend which may result in another round of snow for parts
of western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

No significant impacts are expected for the next 18 hours for sw
Kansas terminals. A weak cold front turns winds northerly again
Monday morning. Gusts will be possible into the early afternoon,
however will probably be relatively infrequent - the GFS localMOS
indicates not gusts at all.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  23  48  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  49  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  27  52  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  24  51  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  24  46  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
P28  25  52  25  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Russell


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