065
FXUS63 KDDC 120735
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
235 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorm chances today into Monday.

- A few stronger storms today could turn severe with the main
  threat of hail larger than quarters and wind gusts approaching
  60 mph.

- Another system mid week will bring rain and storm chances on
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

06z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows a larger upper
low centered in south central Colorado with a shortwave ejecting
into western and northwestern Kansas. This wave has spread cloud
cover and a line of rain showers mainly along and west of
highway 83. At the surface a 1010 mb low is developing in
eastern Colorado and surface dewpoints are in the low 50s
suggesting decent moisture ahead of the main forcing.

Today as the upper level shortwave moves through western Kansas
we will see the first round of rain and embedded thunderstorms
move from west to east ending by late morning. Areas west of
highway 283 could see some breaks in the clouds and rain enough
that we could have some added instability ahead of the main
upper low. After noon as the low enters into western Kansas
with the good forcing and CAPE values around 1000-1500 j/KG we
should see another round of scattered thunderstorms develop. CAM
models seem to want the best chance of storm somewhere from
Liberal to La Crosse but we really could see storm develop
anywhere in western Kansas. With the CAPE and 0-6 km shear
around 30-40 kts hail and wind are possible in the stronger
storms. Hodographs are trending at good lower level shear for
updrafts but then west to southwesterly winds aloft will produce
backing that should keep the updrafts from being strong past 15
kft. Hence main threat will be hail quarter size or slightly
larger and wind gusts. Tornado risk should be low with these
hodograph soundings but whenever you have a closed low in the
vicinity of storms there`s still a possibility of some brief
spinups/landspouts.

Tonight should be the best opportunity for some widespread rain
and higher rainfall amounts as the slow moving low will be
centered in north central Kansas and upward motion in the 700 mb
layers should be the strongest in southwest Kansas. Any residual
CAPE that isn`t used from the afternoon convection should
respond to this forcing tonight to produce rain and embedded
thunderstorms. Even low end amount forecast still show 0.25-0.50
inch for areas along and east of highway 83 with high end
amounts of over 1 inch. Probabilities of 0.5 inch rain is in the
50-80% tonight west of highway 83 would suggest most of us
should get a good soaking.

Monday with the slow propagation eastward of the low and lift on
the backside another round of rain and clouds should be expected
mainly along and east of highway 283. Rainfall amounts will be
lesser on Monday as 0.05-0.10 inch have 40-50% probability and
the higher amounts have the probabilities fall quickly. With the
clouds, rain, and colder air hanging on in our eastern zones
temperatures will probably be in the upper 60s for highs and in
the west we could start to see some breaks in the clouds and
with the warmer 850 mb temps near the Colorado border we could
see highs in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Tuesday should be a quiet day as the upper low departs and a
brief upper level ridge moves into the central plains. Winds
should be light and with sunny skies highs should reach into the
80s.

Wednesday into Thursday ensemble models in the upper levels have
a large trough extending from central Canada back southwest to
Arizona. The first mid level shortwave and forcing will bring a
frontal zone from northwest Kansas to eastern Nebraska and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop Wednesday morning mainly
along and north of I-70 (POPS in the 40-50% range) with lesser
chances as you go south (20-30% around highway 50).

A larger and stronger trough is forecast to move into western
Kansas Wednesday night into Thursday. The track of the trough is
setting up to move from eastern New Mexico through the panhandle
of Texas and if we can get this track that would prove favorable
for rain chances in southwest Kansas. Latest NBMv4.1 POPs
Wednesday night into Thursday have ~60% and ensemble forecast
for QPF amounts are high for at least 0.10 inch (~90%) and
increasing for 0.5 inch (50-80% for areas south and east of
Dodge City). Severe weather is not anticipated as the boundary
layer winds will be more northerly and stronger cold air
advection at the surface should limit the instability potential
we have in May.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Periods of showers and storms for all terminals will be expected
during the time period. Best opportunity for storms will be
between 08-14Z this morning and then again between 20-03Z later
today. Cloud ceilings with the storms should be mainly MVFR
(around 60%) with some smaller probability of IFR at times
(~10%). Breaks in the clouds between 14-20Z could also provide
some brief VFR flight category. Winds in general will be between
8-15 kts however any thunderstorms in the vicinity of the
airport could provide some brief wind gusts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro