Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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125 FXUS63 KAPX 121853 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 253 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing chances of showers and storms tonight - Marginal threat of severe storms over parts of the area on Thursday - Increasing heat and humidity Sunday into early next week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 247 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Shortwave near the Arrowhead of Minnesota will sharpen as it slides southeast toward the western lakes tonight. A surface cold front will trail this lead upper waves, reaching central Wisconsin by Thursday morning. An expanding area of pre-frontal moisture will spread into northern Michigan tonight, resulting in increasing chances of showers/storms. Cold front sweeps through northern Michigan later Thursday, with moisture, instability and low level convergence maximizing precipitation chances over eastern parts of our area. Some of the storms on Thursday could be severe with hail and wind the main threat. Forecast Details: The tail end of a shortwave sliding north of our area this evening will bring a few showers (thunder?) to eastern upper Michigan. More widespread activity expected later tonight with deeper moisture associated with the arrival of a stronger wave and associated cold front. Increasing isentropic ascent tonight with deep layer moisture advection ahead of the upstream wave. A developing 45+ kt low level jet will aid in pushing more shower/storm activity into our area. I would expect showers/storms to develop over western upper Michigan and Wisconsin later this evening, pushing east-southeast across northern Michigan after midnight. Still some question marks about how much this activity will hold together as it leaves the more favorable instability area to our west but sufficient low level convergence, deep layer moisture advection and elevated instability of a few hundred joules should be sufficient to produce showers/storms across much of the area. I don`t think there is much of a severe threat with this activity tonight although some isolated gusty winds possible if we can get a strong enough updraft into that elevated instability layer. Mild temperatures tonight, generally in the 60s (some 50s north of the bridge). Thursday`s weather brings a fair number of question marks. Pre- frontal activity from overnight will be exiting during the morning hours with lingering showers/storms ending. Likely a "quieter" period through midday with subsidence behind this first feature. Some drying behind this pre-frontal wave with deepest moisture plume laying down from northeast lower into central Michigan. Increasing mid level lapse rates with MUCAPES approaching 1500 j/kg south and east of a line from Alpena to West Branch during the afternoon hours. Sufficient mid level shear to help organize any activity. that develops. With all the aforementioned pre-frontal activity, it will be difficult to pinpoint best convective chances with left over boundaries possibly serving as initiation points. The primary cold front will slide through eastern upper into northern lower during the late afternoon hours. Isolated/scattered shower/storm activity is likely with this boundary as it pushes south. So a bit of a convoluted pattern with shower/storm activity exiting during the morning, some additional showers/storms pre-frontal over northern lower during the afternoon, with at least some isolated/scattered activity aligned more closely with the front late in the day. Widespread highs in the 80s on Thursday, 70s eastern upper. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 247 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: A shot of cooler air moves in for Friday followed by increasing ridging induced heat and humidity for much of the remainder of the long term forecast. Details: Noticeably cooler and less humid conditions Thursday night through Friday night with surface high pressure moving into the region. Looking like a very chilly night Friday night due to nearly calm winds and mainly clear skies with lows dipping into the upper 30s and 40s. Can`t totally rule out a touch of frost in low lying colder spots but not something that will be included in the forecast just yet. Seasonably warm on Saturday with highs generally in the mid and upper 70s. This will be followed by a building East Coast ridge Sunday into early next week. This pattern is expected to lead to increasing heat and humidity. The one thing that has the potential to disrupt the heat would be possible mesoscale convective complexes (mcs) riding over the top of the ridge. A cold front likely reaches the region on or about Wednesday which could increase the coverage of showers and thunderstorms as well eventually cool off temperatures. Highs Sunday ranging from the mid 70s across eastern upper to the mid 80s across northern lower. We will then likely see highs of well into the 80s, with some low and mid 90s possible Monday and especially Tuesday (in advance of the front). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Upper wave and associated cold front will approach the Great Lakes tonight, with mid level clouds increasing along with the threat for showers/storms. Areas of MVFR cigs possible after midnight into early Thursday before drier air moves in with clearing skies. LLWS developing at KMBL, KTVC and KPLN later tonight as winds ramp up aloft from the southwest. Surface winds becoming gustier late tonight into the day on Thursday. Additional showers/storms possible on Thursday, especially during the afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...JK