Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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473 FXUS63 KAPX 051952 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 352 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms into Thursday. - Cool and unsettled to end the work week and start the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Pattern/synopsis: Pre-frontal trof shifting off the ne lower MI coast, with the most widespread convection. Actual, discontinuous cold front advancing toward I-75. This will exit eastward thru this evening. Upper low shifts toward Lk Superior on Thursday, with another lobe of moisture and cooler temps aloft moving into northern MI. Forecast: Pops diminish from w to e thru the daylight hours, exiting eastern areas by dusk. There will be a few-hour period of partial clearing in northern lower MI, and perhaps the eastern UP. But convective cloud cover and precip is developing in parts of nw WI and eastern MN, aided by colder air aloft. Clouds will spill back into the region, toward and after sunset. This will be accompanied by a chance for showers, and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Min temps 50s. Thursday, a chance of morning showers will expand into numerous showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the afternoon, as diurnal heating interacts with cooler temps aloft and increasing moisture. MlCape values rise to 400-500j/kg in the afternoon. More clouds north than south, partly to mostly cloudy. Max temps mid 60s to mid 70s, with somewhat breezy west winds. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Midlevel shortwave troughing currently over the Upper Midwest with sharp upstream ridging over Hudson Bay will continue to stall atmospheric flow and continue period of precipitation across the Great Lakes region. A midlevel jet maxima over the Northern Plains will progress south of the CWA keeping surface temperatures during first half of the forecast period climatologically below average. Midlevel closed low pressure will start over northern Lake Huron at the start of the forecast period. Surface and low level atmospheric profiles remain saturated along with height disturbances to continue showers and storms through Saturday. Ridging currently over the Pacific Northwest will eventually makes its way to the Great Lakes region building surface high pressure for the remainder of the long term. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Showers are expected to linger across the region this Friday and Saturday. Weak forcing will keep rainfall rates and amounts low. Aformentioned closed low pressure will continue to pivot around the region Friday and Saturday locking us into a cool, cloudy, and wet weather pattern. Cloud cover over the CWA will only allow high temperatures to reach the upper 50s to 60s for most locations along with the continuation of intermittent showers. Weak forcing will keep precipitation amounts low as the trough lifts Northeast. A general tenth or so of liquid can be expected for localized areas. Saturday begins to dry out as cloud cover recedes to the northeast allowing for some peaks of sun. Additional precip can`t be ruled out as some lingering moisture could generate a few showers (especially for areas near the Huron shoreline along with Eastern Upper), but little to no measurable rain is expected. Surface high pressure begins to build next week, returning Northern Michigan to quiet weather with temperatures near average: Midlevel riding will begin to build over the Great Lakes region late Saturday into Sunday. Quiet weather is expected for the first half of next week with temperatures returning to climatological average for mid June. Guidance is hinting at the return of precip next Thursday as some height disturbances move into the midwest from the Canadian Rockies, but too early at this time to determine the potential impacts to our CWA. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Precip chances highest into this evening CIU/APN/PLN, though still chances early on TVC/MBL. Mostly SHRA, though APN will likely see TSRA at times this afternoon. Cold front exits east, and a brief break in precip tonight, before moisture returns Thursday. Lots of MVFR conditions this afternoon, mostly VFR tonight. Sw to w winds, a touch breezy this afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...JZ