Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 020205
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1005 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE MORNING, BUT FOR THE MOST PART,
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE FORSEEN TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST. SKIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND
WITH THE WINDS DECOUPLING WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM
AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 30S. LOOKING AT THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
(DEWPOINTS AT THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY), IT SEEMS THAT LOWS
PROBABLY WON`T GO MUCH BELOW THAT POINT, IF AT ALL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE PUSHING THE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SKIES BY MONDAY MORNING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SKIES CLEARING A
LITTLE QUICKER AND TEMPERATURES FALLING A LITTLE FURTHER THAN
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGING IS SLOWLY SETTLING TOWARD
FAR NW SUPERIOR. PRECIP IS DWINDLING WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON...
NOT MUCH MORE THAN DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES LEFT OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER. ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA IS SEEN OVER IOWA...
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THAT LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT
MOVES JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER
LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE FADES AWAY TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH. MIGHT NEED A SPRINKLE MENTION IN THE LAST FEW DAYLIGHT
HOURS...DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP AFTER DUSK. UPSTREAM SHRA WILL
ROLL INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS OF
NOW THIS LOOKS LIKELY TO MISS US TO THE SOUTH...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR SE.

SYNOPTIC CLOUD COVER HAS EXITED WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES...WITH
LAKE BREEZE CU FIRING. THAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
INCOMING UPPER LOW/SHRA DOWNSTATE WILL HELP SUPPORT CLOUD COVER MUCH
LONGER IN NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE VERY LATE TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: VERY "BLOCKY" PATTERN
CONTINUES...WITH DECAYING NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION BEING
REPLACED BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE DEVELOPMENT AS THE DRIVER OF
SUCH. DESPITE THIS BLOCKING...OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BE A RATHER ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE ONE THROUGH MIDWEEK...DRIVEN
IN LARGE PART BY PASSAGE OF ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DRUMMING UP SOME MORE SHOWER CONCERNS BY LATER TUESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDRESSING THOSE SHOWER CHANCES
(POSSIBLE THUNDER?) LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: NOT A BAD LOOKING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
DRY...ACTUAL CLOUD FORECAST REMAINS A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE
WITH HINTS OF 5KFT CENTERED SHALLOW CLOUD DECK FORMING DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS/NAM BUFFER PROGS SHOW
THIS...WITH SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE TUCKED UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ALL-THE-WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC. PER TRENDS...GOTTA BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME SHALLOW BASED CU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS WHERE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WILL CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IF
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE SCENARIO IS REALIZED...SKIES MAY TREND
MORE ON THE CLOUDY SIDE OF THINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMPLE AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND AT LEAST SOME SUN WILL SURE HELP THE TEMPERATURE
CAUSE...WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY BREAKING THE 60 DEGREE MARK
(ALBEIT...ONLY BARELY).

CONTINUED DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF TUESDAY GIVES
WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES BY LATER IN THE DAY...AND
ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THOSE EARLIER TALKED ABOUT BUILDING
WESTERN HEIGHTS FORCE A WELL-DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH AN ATTENDANT
WELL DEVELOPED COLD FRONT COLLOCATED NICELY WITH SURGE OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT. COOLING MID LEVELS SUPPORT SOME DECENT H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THAT LOWER AND MID LEVEL
FORCING...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE ABOUT THE
ONLY COMPONENT LACKING...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING WILL SPIKE PWAT VALUES TO WELL OVER HALF AN INCH.
ABOVE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO...BUT DEFINITELY NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON THAT IDEA TO INCLUDE A
SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. UNFORTUNATELY...SOME
LINGERING TIMING UNCERTAINTY WARRANTS WHAT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL BE
A MUCH TOO LONG MENTION OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. PER TRENDS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR SHOWER CHANCES TO BE RELEGATED TO A FEW HOUR
WINDOW...DIRECTLY TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. STILL
TIME TO WORK THOSE DETAILS OUT.

LINGERING SHOWER THREAT WEDNESDAY TIED TO INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH
MAINTENANCE OF GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS CENTER OF TROUGH AXIS
DROPS OVERHEAD. GIVEN LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXIT OF COLD
FRONT...WOULD EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SOME
IMPRESSIVE COOLING TIED TO THIS TROUGHING...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES NOW
LOOKING TO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...A GOOD TO 10 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN HIGHS
ON TUESDAY AND AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL.

EXTENDED...

AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP IN THE 500MB PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK....WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROUGHING OFF
THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. GUIDANCE SHOWS CUTOFF
LOWS DEVELOPING IN THE TROUGHS AS THE WHOLE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON THURSDAY. CLOSER TO EARTH...WE MAY SEE SOME
STRAGGLING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...AFTER A WAVE
SLIDES DOWN AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND HEADS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT BIG RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUTS THE KIBOSH ON MOISTURE AND WE
TREND DRIER THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE BEGINS COLLAPSING ON
SATURDAY...AND MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM
CANADA FOR MAYBE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY AGAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF SUNDAY. BUT HONESTLY...I
HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL COME FROM. WILL
LEAVE THE CHANCE POPS THAT BLENDED SOLUTIONS GIVE...SINCE IT`S SO
FAR OFF...BUT WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF WE SKIRT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO CLIMO IN THE EXTENDED..AND ACTUALLY
POP WARMER (HIGHS IN THE 70`S) FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA, AND IS CLEARING
OUT THE SKIES OVER THE REGION. WITH THAT THE NE TO N DRY FLOW OUT
OF THE SFC HIGH IS ERODING THE CLOUDS AND ALL CIGS ARE NOW VFR, AS
WELL AS THE VSBYS. THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, WILL BE EXPECTING THAT THE
COASTAL SITES (I.E. TVC, MBL, APN) WILL HAVE SOME SORT OF LAKE
BREEZE BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE LOOKING CLOSER AT THIS BEFORE THE
06Z ISSUANCE OR MAYBE SOONER.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD SUPERIOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. NE-ERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
CANCELLED EARLY...AND NO FURTHER HEADLINES SHOULD BE NEEDED THRU
THE START OF THE DAY TUESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MSB/KB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JZ



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