Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 272300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE SEASONAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER A NORTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
WILL GENERATE MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY...GENERATING PLENTY OF SUN AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

...CHILLY TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOW END CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA REGION WILL
DROP EAST SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDS QUICKLY FADE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PROMOTE EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...AS THE AIR MASS IS RATHER DRY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S
NEAR THE LAKE SHORES. FROST POTENTIAL AT GROUND LEVEL IS RATHER LOW
DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE SHORTNESS OF THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

...DRY THURSDAY BUT A DEFINITE CHANGE TO WETTER WEATHER IN STORE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL REMAINS A
CONCERN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WITH A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC ACROSS
CANADA...WHICH CONTAINS A NUMBER OF RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH.  ONE
SUCH WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA.  AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS BEEN CUT
OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES AND IS DRIFTING EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...WHILE IN THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE "CRISTOBAL" WAS TRACKING
NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS BUILDING EAST INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...
COLD FRONT THAT MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NOW PUSHING
INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND STRETCHES BACK TO THE WEST WHERE IT HAS
BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEST INTO KANSAS/NEBRASKA
(AND WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S-70S HAVE POOLED ALONG THE
FRONT).

GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW REMNANT WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS FORECAST TO GET NUDGED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND AS TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA GETS
REINFORCED.  THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE
NATION`S MIDSECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...
AFTER WHICH STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES...WITH A SURGE OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER 1.50+ INCHES GETTING PULLED ACROSS THE BOUNDARY BY MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): A QUIET START TO THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEFORE THINGS TURN MORE ACTIVE...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THOUGH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES SHY OF LATE
AUGUST AVERAGES (HIGHS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S).  CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
IMPRESSIVE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
JET DYNAMICS...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
1.50-2.00 INCHES AND FORECAST K-INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY GET IN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT...HOW SIGNIFICANTLY WILL LARGELY DEPEND
ON POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION THOUGH TRENDS SUGGEST
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN.  HEAVY RAIN NOT LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS INITIALLY DRY LAYERS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME...BUT A
BIGGER THREAT STARTS FRIDAY (MORE ON THAT BELOW).  HAVE ADJUSTED
PRECIPITATION TIMING A BIT...A LITTLE SLOWER THURSDAY EVENING BUT
WITH THE SAME BASIC COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR MASS SURGES INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING
AS LOW LEVEL JET ALSO PUSHES NORTHEAST ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED JET
ENTRANCE FORCING.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF A WIDESPREAD PUSH OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.  MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE WARM
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO WISCONSIN...KEEPING PERIODIC
SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...OR COULD SEE SOMETHING OF A BREAK
WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
(WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE THE FIRST CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING THIS
EVENT).  A COLD FRONT WILL PRESS IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF IT.  THIS COULD BE POTENTIALLY
INTERESTING FROM A CELL TRAINING STANDPOINT WITH MEAN STEERING FLOW
BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY.

FROM A RAINFALL TOTAL STANDPOINT...THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH FROM
WHAT WAS IN THIS SPACE YESTERDAY.  STILL LOOKS LIKE AN EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCER WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...
OVERALL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF RAINFALL
PATTERN...AND SINCE THIS WILL INVOLVE CONVECTION THERE IS A GOOD BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFICS.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF WE END UP
DEALING WITH SOME ECHO TRAINING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF TIME TO EVALUATE THAT.  RAINFALL TOTALS 1-2+ INCHES NOT
UNREASONABLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CENTERED ON EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER. FLOOD POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON
BOTH SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION. TOPSOIL
MOISTURE IS RUNNING HIGH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHEAST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL THERE SO SOMETHING WORTH
MONITORING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY): SLOW MOVING FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL ADD TO THE
RAINFALL TOTALS.  WILL LEAVE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY THOUGH A
DECENT POSSIBILITY THAT DAY COULD BE THE DRY ONE OF THE WEEKEND.
POSSIBILITY OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): LOOKING AT AN INITIAL DRYING TREND WITH
MOSTLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU
THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...
LENDING TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND RESULTANT WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SETTLE IN
ACROSS MICHIGAN FOR THURSDAY...SLIDING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
FRIDAY ALLOWING A SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC WIND COMPONENT TO DEVELOP.
LAKE BREEZES SHOULD PREDOMINATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB






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