Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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705 FXUS63 KAPX 110345 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cool, with at least some frost expected tonight. - There is potential for thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Skies remain clear across our entire CWA as strong high pressure settles into the Western Great Lakes. Little will change overnight. Clear skies...light/calm winds and an unseasonably cold airmass overnight will allow overnight lows to fall into the 30s across most of our CWA. Still expect temps will drop into the low to mid 30s across mainly interior sections of our area. Thus will maintain all Frost Advisories in effect for the overnight and early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified pattern across the CONUS this afternoon with troughing over New England down into the southeastern U.S. Ridge axis currently upstream across the central Plains into Manitoba/northern Ontario. Canada originated high pressure that`s currently situated over MN/WI will drift east this evening... becoming centered squarely overhead tonight. By late tomorrow, shortwave troughing is expected to be trekking across the northern tier of the country with attendant low pressure over southern Canada. This wave will eventually drive increased low-end shower chances locally Tuesday night. Forecast Details: Sun-filled skies across northern Michigan this afternoon with high temperatures back into the 60s across the majority of the area. Some northwest breeziness lingers through sunset with calm winds and clear skies anticipated overnight as aforementioned high pressure parks overhead -- ideal radiational cooling setup for an excellent nocturnal temperature response. Still expecting much of the interior to fall into the mid-upper 30s with some the typically cooler areas perhaps dipping to near 30 degrees. Will go ahead with a frost advisory in those typically cooler counties with the highest likelihood for frost away from the Great Lakes shorelines -- and while not every location within the advisory counties will see frost tonight, given that it`s nearly mid-June, feel that even a smattering of locations sub-36 degrees is enough to warrant taking precaution. Coastal areas likely to remain a few degrees warmer, and while frost is unlikely in these areas, low- lying spots even several miles inland from the coasts may see localized/patchy frost in typically colder/susceptible areas. A sunny and chilly start to Tuesday, although temperatures rebound nicely into the 70s for most with sunshine becoming more filtered during the afternoon as high clouds gradually increase from the west.&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A weak moisture starved cold front traverses the region Tuesday night. Showers will likely be approaching northern Michigan from the west but the loss of diurnal heating is expected to weaken this activity. Could either see showers totally fizzling out or possibly surviving as light scattered rain showers or sprinkles but it shouldn`t be much of anything either way. Weak high pressure likely leaves Wednesday rain free. A weak area of low pressure (to the north) and an associated cold front will bring renewed rain shower and possibly thunderstorm chances to the region later Wednesday night on into Thursday night. The timing of this system will determine the amount of instability and subsequent strength/coverage of storms given the expected increasing wind fields (question is whether the timing will coincide with peak heating). Cooler and rain free conditions are then expected to return for Friday. Increasing ridging this weekend into early next week is expected to lead to much warmer temperatures and possibly showers and storms (mainly Sunday into Monday). Some spots in northern lower could approach the 90 degree mark Sunday and possibly even hit the low and mid 90s by early next week depending upon the amount of convective activity/cloud cover. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Large area of strong high pressure will build over Michigan overnight into Tuesday...maintaining clear skies and solid VFR conditions. A warm front will approach our state Tuesday night...resulting in increasing clouds and a slight chance of showers. Light wind regime will allow for lake breeze development on Tuesday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ016-017- 021>023-027>029-033>035-086-095-099. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MLR SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...MLR