Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 270500
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING AS SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED
OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND HEADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER
THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED.  00Z APX SOUNDING EXHIBITS STEEP LAPSE
RATES BELOW 650MB...IF THAT RESIDUAL LAYER CAN HOLD UP OVERNIGHT
(SHALLOW SURFACE BASED NOCTURNAL INVERSION)...THEN CAN ENVISION A
QUICK RUN TOWARD 90 DEGREES MONDAY. STILL LIKE THE OVERNIGHT FOG
IDEA FOR EASTERN UPPER...MAY LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER
50S AND 60S FOR INLAND AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG COLLIDING
LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS SHOWN
A QUICK DEMISE OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES. A FEW DECENT LOOKING
CUMULUS CLOUDS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE OFFICE POPPED DURING LATE
AFTERNOON BUT THOSE ARE ALSO GOING BY THE WAYSIDE. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WILL RULE THE ROOST
OVERNIGHT...AND IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAIRLY BENIGN NIGHT IN
STORE. HAVE ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. GIVEN
AFTERNOON RAIN IN SPOTS AND GENERALLY HIGH DEW POINTS/LOWER
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS THANKS TO LAKE BREEZE PENETRATION.
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MAY BE A BIT LOW FOR
FOG CONCERNS OVERNIGHT BUT WILL EVALUATE THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A BUBBLE HIGH SITS OVER LOWER MI. THICKER CIRRUS PATCHES HAVE
CROSSED SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS NOT PREVENTED
TEMPS FROM REACHING INTO THE 80S ACROSS NORTHERN MI...THOUGH THE
WARMEST READINGS TEND TO BE IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM LAKE
MI...MITIGATING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SINCE 1 PM SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE IN EASTERN UPPER.
THIS IS AN AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCES IS MAXIMIZED...AND
LAKE MI IS CONTRIBUTING A LITTLE BIT EXTRA MOISTURE.

ONGOING CONVECTION IS SURFACE BASED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND
WILL NOT LAST PAST MID/LATE EVENING. DEEP SHEAR FIELDS ARE
QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH WINDS AT 25KT OR LESS ALL THE WAY UP TO
300MB. HOWEVER...THERE IS TURNING TO THOSE WEAK WIND FIELDS...0-3KM
SRH NEAR 100 M2/S2. AND THERE IS SOME LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AVAILABLE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. SO THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE
EXHIBITING WEAK ROTATION...PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER THAN ONE WOULD
EXPECT IN WHAT IS OTHERWISE A PULSE-STORM ENVIRONMENT. NOT SEEING
TOO MUCH OF A SVR THREAT...MLCAPES ARE STRUGGLING TO EXCEED 1K J/KG.
BUT THE STRONGER CELLS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS THANKS TO
PRECIP LOADING.

OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IS AHEAD. A TOUCH OF MID CLOUDS MAY HANG
AROUND NORTHERN LOWER FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO MOVE SOUTH. A TOUCH OF FOG MAY BE SEEN
OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL FOG-PRONE LOCALES. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM...NEAR 60F TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AS OF YET. NEED
TO MONITOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE
TALKED ABOUT THE PAST FEW DAYS IS INDEED TAKING SHAPE...WITH WATER
VAPOR/MODEL GUIDANCE/12Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATING WESTERN LAKES
RIDGE BUILDING WELL AHEAD OF DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO MATURE THROUGH THE EARLY STAGES OF THIS WEEK...WITH
OVERHEAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ATTENDANT DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...
AUGMENTED DOWN LOW BY SLOWLY RETREATING SURFACE HIGH...WILL HELP
SPREAD SOME OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS HEAT NORTH INTO OUR
AREA. THIS WILL EASILY RESULT IN THE WARMEST PERIOD OF WEATHER YET
EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER. UNFORTUNATELY...ABOVE WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER...WAITING UNTIL THAT UPSTREAM TROUGH
ADVANCES EAST MIDWEEK TO BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ADDRESSING SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: RIDGING...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...CONTINUES TO MAKE
THEIR PRESENCE FELT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NICE POCKET OF DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND GENERAL DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE...SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR STRETCH OF WEATHER (SIMPLY NOT
BUYING THE CONVECTIVELY EXCITED GFS WITH ITS MUCH TOO MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER). GOING TO BE A WARM ONE...WITH NOW WELL AGREED UPON H8 TEMPS
UP NEAR 19-20C...WHICH EASILY SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE
80S...AND EVEN LOWER 90S IN OUR TRADITIONAL WARMER AREAS. DEW POINTS
WILL BE A TOUCH ELEVATED (UPPER 50S/LOWER AND MID 60S) BUT NOTHING
TOO EXTREME...KEEPING HEAT INDICES JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN HEADING THROUGH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO ONTARIO. HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN AS SOON AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
MAIN WAVE SET TO ARRIVE LATER ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY SUPPORT FOR A
RATHER PHENOMENAL MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...WITH PWAT VALUES UP NEAR 2 INCHES WITHIN WELL
DEVELOPED THETA-E AXIS. GOTTA BELIEVE A DECENT AREA OF STORMS...SOME
SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WHAT`S
LEFT ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
GROWING SUPPORT FOR THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT TO ARRIVE/PUSH ACROSS
OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...VERY MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY`S FRONTAL EVENT. DESPITE WHAT APPEARS TO BE DECENT
DYNAMICS AND EXCELLENT MOISTURE PROFILES...ACTUAL FRONTAL TIMING IS
PROBLEMATIC FOR ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
CIPS ANALOGS CONCUR...WITH THE TOP ANALOG (A DECENT LOOKING MATCH)
SHOWING SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR WEST...WEAKENING THROUGH OUR
AREA...AND THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SURE HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE...WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRE-
FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET RIDES ATOP LAKE INDUCED SURFACE COLD
DOME...WITH THIS AREA OF RAIN SLOWLY DECAYING AS IT ADVANCES EAST
THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF COURSE...THIS IS JUST ALL
SPECULATION FOR NOW...WITH ANY SLOWER TIMING THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED UPPING THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS ONE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BY 00Z THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR SLOWLY
FUNNELING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (CLIMATOLOGICALLY 79-81 DEGREES FOR THE LAST
WEEK OF JULY) READINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE-UPPER 70S INTO THE LOWER 80S. HAVE NO
CONVINCING REASON TO REMOVE INHERITED LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE HINTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE OR TWO MOVING THROUGH
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH COULD BE ABLE TO KICK OF A WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME. OVERALL THROUGH...REALLY FEEL
THAT MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STALLED OVERHEAD.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LOWER MI THRU MONDAY...THEN DRIFT
EAST. STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNTIL THEN...WINDS/WAVES WILL
BE MEAGER...FAVORING LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS AND LAND
BREEZES AT NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ



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