Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 281744
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TODAY...
SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND
DELIVERING A RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH MORNING SHOWERS TODAY GIVING
WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES
BY HALLOWEEN MORNING...SENDING TEMPERATURES PLUNGING AND BRINGING A
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUNRISE OR SO...OTHERWISE JUST NOT MUCH...MINUS SOME GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE GUSTS ON
PARTS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

QUITE THE AIRMASS DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE MOMENT AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A WARM
FRONT BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN AT 06Z. IN FACT...TEMPS DOWN ALONG
THE M-55 CORRIDOR AND INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES ARE NEAR 70 CURRENTLY
(WOW!) WHILE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA CONTINUE TO BE STUCK ONLY IN
THE 40S. THAT WARM FRONT HAS BEEN STEADILY LIFTING NORTHWARD THE
PAST FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
QUITE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WORKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRECIP CONTINUES TO ARC AROUND THE CWA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED AXIS ROLLING UP THROUGH EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL U.P. WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF
INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT SITS JUST UPSTREAM ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HELPING FUEL ANOTHER FLAREUP
OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND POINTS SOUTH.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN DEPTH FOR DAYS...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
WILL SPIN ITSELF ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP TOWARD SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY EARLY
EVENING...QUICKLY SENDING THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS AREA
BY NOON AT THE LATEST. AFOREMENTIONED AXIS OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP AN ARC OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS UP ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
INTO THE EASTERN U.P. THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH ACTUALLY VERY LITTLE
SUPPORT WORKING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT
WILL COME INTO NORTHEAST LOWER UP THROUGH 14-15Z AS A MARKEDLY
WARMER/MORE HUMID AIRMASS IS RAPIDLY ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ACT TO FURTHER
STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OUT THAT WAY. AS SUCH...REALLY FORESEE
A SPLIT IN PRECIP COVERAGE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN CWA AND EASTERN
AREAS...THOUGH GIVEN THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WORKING OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA...WOULD SUSPECT THAT AT LEAST A SMATTERING OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN BETWEEN (THOUGH IT`S FAR FROM A CERTAINTY).

STRONG DRYING WILL KICK INTO GEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AS QUITE THE PUSH
OF COLD ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. DESPITE LOSS OF MOISTURE ABOVE
800MB...INCREASINGLY COOLER PROFILES DOWN LOW AND SUBSEQUENT STEEPER
SFC-800MB LAPSE RATES/LAKE COMPONENT ARGUE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE FOR A TIME IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...EVEN THE SUB-800MB LAYER LOOKS TO DRY SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER
18Z...STRONGLY INFERRING THAT NOT MUCH AT ALL WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER...WITH DOWNRIGHT SUNNY SKIES LIKELY FOR A TIME INTO
THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH A DIFFERENT STORY WITH DEEPER
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE LIKELY SUPPORTING SOME DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD
THEN EXPAND BACK INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER/EASTERN UPPER
OVERNIGHT AS A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE PINWHEELS BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN AROUND -2C EASILY SUPPORTING AN UPTICK
IN LAKE ENHANCED RAIN COVERAGE. WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO
PREVENT ANY SNOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS TODAY NOT TOO SHABBY...WITH
DEEPER MIXING OFFSETTING COLD ADVECTION INITIALLY (MAINLY 50S TO LOW
60S EAST) BUT WITH FALLING READINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS...GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...A STRONGER SHOT OF COLD AND POSSIBLE SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

OVERALL...PROGRESSIVE MERIDIONAL FLOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROLLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH WEAKER ACTIVITY KEEPING OVERALL BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE REALLY SHARPENS UP THE
TROUGHING...AND ALSO PROVIDING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING FOR HALLOWEEN. TRENDS ARE FOR RIDGING AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. NOT ONLY WILL
WE BE PROVIDED WITH SHOTS OF SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION...BUT ALSO LAKE
EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS PERIODS OF SHOWER CHANCES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: A VARIETY OF FALL WEATHER...PRECIP...SKY
COVER AND TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES
ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO HALLOWEEN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY VORT MAX AND
COLD FRONT WILL BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY MORNING...PROVIDING SYNOPTIC
RAIN CHANCES...AS WELL AS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. H8 TEMPS AT THIS TIME
ARE SUFFICIENTLY COOL...IN THE -2 TO -4C RANGE. NOT REALLY EXCITED
OVERALL WITH THE THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH MOISTURE BARELY
THROUGH -10C FOR ICE ACTIVATION. THE LOW EXCITEMENT IS MORE SO
THROUGH THE DAY...AS THIS MOISTURE FALLS WELL BELOW -10C. WILL SEE
SHOWERS AROUND IN THE MORNING IN THE NW FLOW REGIMES...WITH TRENDS
MORE TOWARD JUST CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
IN THE 40S. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR THINGS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. PROBABLY MORE OF JUST
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPRINKLES WED/THURS AFTERNOONS
IS THERE.

THURSDAY NIGHT/HALLOWEEN/HALLOWEEN NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE SLAMS
INTO NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A QUICK HEAVY SHOT OF
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY PRE-FRONTAL IN THE
WARMER AIR (I.E. MORE RAIN THAN SNOW CHANCE..ALTHOUGH INLAND EASTERN
UPPER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX IN).
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAYBE A SECONDARY
SUFFICIENT BATCH OF MOISTURE FOR SOME BONA FIDE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS (NORTH FLOW). H8 TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER...IN THE
-8C TO -10C RANGE. THIS WILL BE OUR COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S MOST AREAS (AROUND 40F NEAR AND
DOWNWIND OF THE WARMER LAKES). LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
LOOKING COLDEST WITH A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A SFC HIGH
THAT WILL BE ARRIVING. COULD BE VERY COLD. AM LOOKING AT LEAST FOR
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...AND VERY POSSIBLY...COLDER.

NEXT WEEKEND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND A SLOWLY MODERATING AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN FOR LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...A STRONGER SHOT OF COLD AND POSSIBLE SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

OVERALL...PROGRESSIVE MERIDIONAL FLOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROLLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH WEAKER ACTIVITY KEEPING OVERALL BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE REALLY SHARPENS UP THE
TROUGHING...AND ALSO PROVIDING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING FOR HALLOWEEN. TRENDS ARE FOR RIDGING AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. NOT ONLY WILL
WE BE PROVIDED WITH SHOTS OF SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION...BUT ALSO LAKE
EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS PERIODS OF SHOWER CHANCES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: A VARIETY OF FALL WEATHER...PRECIP...SKY
COVER AND TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES
ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO HALLOWEEN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY VORT MAX AND
COLD FRONT WILL BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY MORNING...PROVIDING SYNOPTIC
RAIN CHANCES...AS WELL AS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. H8 TEMPS AT THIS TIME
ARE SUFFICIENTLY COOL...IN THE -2 TO -4C RANGE. NOT REALLY EXCITED
OVERALL WITH THE THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH MOISTURE BARELY
THROUGH -10C FOR ICE ACTIVATION. THE LOW EXCITEMENT IS MORE SO
THROUGH THE DAY...AS THIS MOISTURE FALLS WELL BELOW -10C. WILL SEE
SHOWERS AROUND IN THE MORNING IN THE NW FLOW REGIMES...WITH TRENDS
MORE TOWARD JUST CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
IN THE 40S. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR THINGS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. PROBABLY MORE OF JUST
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPRINKLES WED/THURS AFTERNOONS
IS THERE.

THURSDAY NIGHT/HALLOWEEN/HALLOWEEN NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE SLAMS
INTO NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A QUICK HEAVY SHOT OF
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY PRE-FRONTAL IN THE
WARMER AIR (I.E. MORE RAIN THAN SNOW CHANCE..ALTHOUGH INLAND EASTERN
UPPER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX IN).
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAYBE A SECONDARY
SUFFICIENT BATCH OF MOISTURE FOR SOME BONA FIDE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS (NORTH FLOW). H8 TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER...IN THE
-8C TO -10C RANGE. THIS WILL BE OUR COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S MOST AREAS (AROUND 40F NEAR AND
DOWNWIND OF THE WARMER LAKES). LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
LOOKING COLDEST WITH A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A SFC HIGH
THAT WILL BE ARRIVING. COULD BE VERY COLD. AM LOOKING AT LEAST FOR
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...AND VERY POSSIBLY...COLDER.

NEXT WEEKEND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND A SLOWLY MODERATING AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN FOR LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A VERY BRIEF LULL IN WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. OVERALL PEAK WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST SHY OF GALE CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH AS IS
TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...A COUPLE OF GALE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS. THOSE LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH
ANOTHER BURST OF HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SOME VERY COLD AIR DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 142 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT PLN ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING HELPS CLEAR
OUT THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN CONTINUING COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTS IN ENOUGH OVERLAKE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MVFR CIGS
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

EXPECT WRLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AIDED
BY INCREASING SFC HEATING/MIXING. WINDS MAY STILL A BIT GUSTY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$





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