338
FXUS63 KAPX 060654
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
254 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms again later
  today.

- Unsettled weather continues through the weekend.

- Warming and drying trend could begin early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Strong, amplified troughing with downstream blocking will continue
to pivot over the Great Lakes today and tonight. As the system
becomes increasingly vertically stacked with time, the associated
surface cyclone will gradually weaken as it spins over Ontario.

Forecast Details:

Shower/storm chances today -- Ongoing showers and rumbles of thunder
will continue to work across parts of northern Michigan over the
next few hours before ending later this morning. A brief lull in
rain chances is anticipated from around mid morning into the early
afternoon before chances for showers and storms return. Sufficient
forcing aloft provided by the aforementioned wave pivoting overhead
and relatively weak buoyancy (~300 to 1,000 J/kg MUCAPE) will
support scattered to numerous showers/storms this afternoon into the
evening hours. Primary hazards with this low-topped activity will be
lightning, small hail, and brief heavy downpours. Severe storms are
not anticipated at this time. Otherwise, cooler temperatures will be
in place today with highs staying in the mid 60s to low 70s for
most. Overnight lows look to dip into the 40s for many areas away
from the immediate lakeshores.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: A deep upper level closed low
continues to move east Friday, gradually taking rain chances with.
Most rain chances should be east of the CWA by Friday evening. West
to northwest flow and generally cloudy skies should keep
temperatures cooler. Brief zonal mid and upper level flow Saturday
as around 60 to 70kts move over the central part of the state. A
weak surface low will likely accompany this upper jet, giving way to
more light precipitation chances Saturday (best chances are over
northern lower at this time). An upper level ridge will start to
accelerate southward over the Hudson Bay Sunday, and will elongate a
shortwave extending towards the northern plains from the previous
closed low to our east. This will lower heights aloft once again,
and use recycled moisture for some more rain chances Sunday. Warmer
and drier weather looks to arrive Monday, however some guidance
suggests more rain later next week.


Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Confidence in the pattern
remaining wet and unsettled is high as anomalous moisture is already
circulating around the closed low to our north and guidance doesn`t
suggest anything to push it out (deterministic or ensembles). There
will be breaks from the clouds and rain, however generally chances
remain in the forecast for this weekend. There is run to run
consistency on an upper level ridge moving down from Hudson Bay, the
inconsistencies have been what that does to the feature in front of
it (the upper closed low/shortwave). Guidance leans more towards a
shortwave and resulting rain from this for Sunday, with the ridge
building in Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Expect passing periods of clouds and a few showers through this
taf period. Trends support cloud bases to primarily remain VFR
for areas of northern lower Michigan, with MVFR cigs spreading
back across KCIU this morning. West to southwest winds will
become a touch gusty later this morning and afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MB