Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 070201
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

...RAIN TONIGHT(HOPEFULLY)...TURNING COLDER TOMORROW...

EVENING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WAVY COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...AND ON TO NEAR GREEN
BAY. ALOFT...STRONG SHORT WAVE IS ADVANCING INTO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN...ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG UPPER JET THAT
STRETCHES UP THROUGH NE ONTARIO. OVERALL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS MEAGER...ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE.
BUT THEN AGAIN INSTABILITY WAS MEAGER BACK ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THEY APPARENTLY HAD A TORNADO NEAR MARION
WISCONSIN. SPEAKING OF WHICH...WHATS LEFT OF THAT SMALL SUPERCELL
CLUSTER IS MOVING ENE THROUGH CENTRAL GREEN BAY WITH A DEFINITIVE
SPIN IN THE PRECIP PATTERN.

PRECIP-WISE...MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP HAS BEEN ACROSS NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ON THE TAIL END OF THE
UPPER JET. WAS GETTING A BIT CONCERNED THAT WE WERE GOING TO SEE
ANOTHER CLASSIC NRN LOWER MI PRECIP SPLIT. BUT RADAR TRENDS DOES
SHOW ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS TRYING TO EXPAND/NOSE ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN JUST WITHIN THE
LAST HOUR SO...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG-ASCENT PRESSING INTO
THE REGION AND ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS THAT IS TRYING TO STRETCH
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. APPEARS THAT WILL BE THE
TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...AND EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO EXPAND INTO THE REST OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

THUNDER CHANCES...NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. WE WILL PULL SOME MUCAPE UP
INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ENOUGH SO TO HAVE TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BUT
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LATEST SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK TOOK US
COMPLETELY OUT OF GENERAL THUNDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
NOT EXPECTED.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
HELP FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER WI PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO
FRONTAL SUPPORT...ADDITIONAL LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY
MID LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AND RIGHT-ENTRANCE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH ONTARIO.

INSTABILITY NOT OVERWHELMING IN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS...IN SPITE OF
HIGHER DEW POINTS. MLCAPES OF UNDER 1K J/KG ACROSS SRN WI WILL
SPREAD NE ACROSS REGION EARLY TONIGHT. 500 MB WINDS OF 30-40 KTS
MAY SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT WITH
MEAGER INSTABILITY SEVERE WEATHER /IN GENERAL/ APPEARS UNLIKELY.
OF GREATER CONCERN POTENTIALLY IS PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 14 KFT THAT MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/RAINFALL. ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO EARLY
EVENING ACROSS FAR NW LOWER AND E UPPER...MOST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-LATE EVENING NW
LOWER AND E UPPER...AND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT NE LOWER. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM MID 50S OVER ERN UPPER TO 65-70 IN THE FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING THE RAIN
OUT OF THE REGION.

(7/7) TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT BEING OFF THE LAKE HURON SHORE LINE
AND THROUGH ABOUT MBS TO BEH LINE. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE RAIN
WILL BE ALMOST OUT OF THE REGION, BY LATE MORNING. MODELS SHOW IN
THE QPF, THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL BE LEFTOVER ALONG AND EAST OF M-33
BY 18Z. FIGURING THAT THOSE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE
REGION BY 15Z AND THAT BY 18Z THE CLEARING SHOULD HAVE BEGUN IN
THE SE COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WITH THE 00Z 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 7C. WITH THE
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE GUSTY NW WINDS FOR A TIME UNTIL
THE SUN SETS AND THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S, BUT WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WON`T BE SURPRISED IF WEDNESDAY
MORNING WE GET REPORTS OF SOME LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S.

(7/8) WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TO THE REGION AND WE
GET BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE CORE OF
THE HIGH OVER US. LOWER TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY RISE A FEW
POINTS WITH THE SUNSHINE.

(7/9) THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WE GET INTO THE
WEAK RETURN FLOW, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, AND MAYBE A FEW 80S AROUND. THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER E UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE ECMWF IS DRY
WITH NO SHORTWAVE. WITH THE GOING FORECAST DRY, WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MODELS ARE AGREEING THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE
START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO SATURDAY...UNTIL IT MOVES OFF AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ARRIVAL
AND AMOUNT OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL UP FOR
QUESTION WITH THE MODELS DISAGREEING WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION...PLAN TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY CAN BE
EXPECTED SINCE THAT LOW IS STILL CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER SEEMS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE 05Z TO 08Z TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL QUICKLY TURN WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST.

ALONG THE FRONT...THERE IS A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BACK THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN AND UP INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. PLN SHOULD GET INTO SOME RAINFALL BY 02Z.
BUT OTHERWISE...RAIN IS LOOKING TO HOLD OFF AT THE REST OF THE
TERMINAL SITES UNTIL AT LEAST FROPA.

AFTER FROPA...A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. BUT STRONG DRYING SHOULD RETURN THINGS BACK TO
VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

WINDS...AGAIN...SHIFTING SHARPLY FROM S/SW TO NW/NNW AT FROPA.
SOME MODEST GUSTINESS DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUSTY S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MARINERS
CAN EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY VICINITY OF LAKE HURON. BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND
GUSTY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347-
     348.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SMITH


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