832
FXUS63 KAPX 191930
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
330 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire weather concerns into this evening.

- Showers and thunderstorms increasing Monday and Monday night.

- Frontal passage Tuesday night brings chance for a round of
  showers and possible strong thunderstorms.

- Cooler and occasionally unsettled Thursday and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Synopsis/pattern: A cold front continues to slowly sag into se
lower MI. That front stalls along the southern lower MI border,
and then comes northward Monday, likely reaching our southern
zones in the afternoon. Wsw flow continues aloft, with the
potential for an MCV to take a run at us by Monday afternoon.

Forecast: Quiet tonight. Southerly return flow begins off the
surface overnight, and elevated instability will make some
inroads into southern MI, mainly south MKG-PHN. Not this far
north. High and mid clouds will be on a slow increase. Between
the clouds and the drier low-level air, significant fog is not
expected. Min temps near 50f to the mid 50s.

Monday, the lifting warm front will gradually climb into
northern lower MI in the afternoon. We will have a reasonably
healthy amount of mid and high clouds, so diurnal heating will
be somewhat inhibited. A bit more in the way of sun is possible
in southern areas midday/early afternoon. Max temps near 80f/
lower 80s will be common in northern lower MI, 70-75f in eastern
upper MI. Surface dew points reach near 60f in the south in the
afternoon. That pushes MlCape values to 1000-1500j/kg in the
south, where shear is less (0-6km bulk 25-30kt). More shear but
less instability to the north. Pops will be on the increase thru
the day, whether by convection moving in from upstream, or via
activity firing here if upstream convection erodes. Likely pops
in the afternoon w and n, chances in the east. SPC continues
with a Marginal severe threat in northern lower MI. That
includes all svr types (including a 2% tor area), in deference
to the surface warm front in the area. Sub-850mb flow is progged
to back somewhat during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A digging trough and its associated surface low is expected to track
into the Midwest resulting in a slug of moisture being brought into
the area for Monday/ Tuesday. This will be enough forcing to push a
stationary front, located in southern Michigan, northward into the
area for Tuesday, leading to rain showers and possible strong
thunderstorms. As the aforementioned surface low tracks out of the
region, cooler air will wrap around the low and be pushed into
Northern Michigan. As such, temperatures will be warmer to start off
next week with daytime highs in the 70s/ 80s, before more seasonable
temperatures set in for mid-week next week (50s/ 60s).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Monday night/ Tuesday Evening and Night: A stationary front
located downstate will provide lift to support thunderstorms for
Tuesday. The aformentioned front will get pushed northward into
Northern Michigan as a digging trough and associated strengthening
surface low track into the Midwest. Guidance continues to hone in on
a wave of energy that will track through the region Monday night
into early Tuesday, which will present the next round of showers and
possible thunderstorms for the region. However, attention quickly
turns to Tuesday evening/ night. First, I want to preface that this
setup and forecast can change as finer details continue to be
analyzed and conclusions are drawn. Now, Tuesday`s setup  has the
potential to produce strong thunderstorms and heavy rain. Southerly
winds will help to usher deep moisture into Northern Michigan, but
potential activity downstate could cut-off the deep moisture fetch
and essentially kill the chances of severe weather. Atmospheric
dynamics continue to be in favor of severe weather, but the
nocturnal nature of the frontal passage poses the question if
anything will be able to initiate along the front. However, given
the later timing and expected forcing, thoughts continue to be in
support of a linear convective mode with all severe hazards
possible. SPC (Storm Prediction Center) continues to have areas west
of US 131 in a Slight Risk (2/5) and the rest of the area in a
Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR.

Drier air in place, behind a cold front moving across se lower
MI. Cirrus and eventually mid clouds will increase tonight into
Monday. A cu field will start to sprout Monday morning, and a
few SHRA/TSRA could pop up right toward the very end of this TAF
period. VFR expected; we are likely too dry for a significant
fog threat tonight.

Nw winds weaken into tonight; se to s breezes develop Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...JZ