Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 021927
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
327 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A QUIET BUT COOL NIGHT AHEAD. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...THEN DOWNSTATE OVERNIGHT. EARLIER
MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER ARE GONE. A HIGH-BASED FLAT
CU FIELD HAS FORMED AWAY FROM SUPERIOR IN EASTERN UPPER...AND AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER MI.

DIURNAL CU WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.
EASTERN UPPER WILL SOMETHING OF AN EXCEPTION...WARM ADVECTION MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THERE VERY LATE TONIGHT.

EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. SOME NON-SEVERE THUNDER
CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: NOAM LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...DRIVEN IN LARGE PART BY STEADILY BUILDING
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING. IN RESPONSE...OVERHEAD TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...WITH ROBUST SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH AXIS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS (PERHAPS THUNDER?)...AS
WELL AS BRINGING A RATHER CHILLY AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES FOR
MIDWEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDRESSING THOSE SHOWER CHANCES
(POSSIBLE THUNDER?) LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: TUESDAY IS A DAY OF TRANSITION AS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED
WAVE AND ATTENDANT RATHER STRONG EARLY MAY COLD FRONT MAKE A RUN
INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE MORNING LOOKS DRY...ARRIVAL OF STRONG DYNAMICS
LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS INTO EASTERN UPPER
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH NORTHERN
LOWER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE STILL REMAINS HINTS OF
SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHERE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. SUB
H8 ENVIRONMENT REMAINS AWFULLY DRY...HOWEVER (EXCELLENT INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE ON SOUNDINGS)...AND SIMPLY DOES NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. STRONG DYNAMICS AND CORRIDOR OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE COLLOCATED NICELY WITH ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SUPPORTING OVERNIGHT SHIFTS IDEA OF AT LEAST SOME THUNDER
POSSIBILITY. LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED AND WELL REMOVED FROM STRONG TO
SEVERE THRESHOLDS. INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO HELP THE WARMING CAUSE...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO
PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

JUST NOT WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FROM YOUR TYPICAL EARLY MAY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THAT SHORTWAVE FURTHER DEEPENS...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
INTO MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE HELPING LOCK IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
AND POINTS EAST...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A THREAT FOR AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. FAR BIGGER STORY WILL BE
TEMPERATURES...WITH A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF CAA (H8 TEMPS
FALLING BELOW ZERO) ON GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. JUST ONE RAW
DAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY NOT TO GET OUT OF THE 40S/LOWER 50S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

SYSTEM BEGINS TO LOOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WHILE RAINS MAY END...PATTERN RECOGNITION SURE SUPPORTS
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE
START OF THURSDAY. WOULDN`T BE ENTIRELY SHOCKED IF MUCH OF THURSDAY
ENDED UP ON THE CLOUDIER SIDE OF THINGS. TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN THE
REBOUND PROCESS THURSDAY (LIKE THEY HAVE ANY OTHER CHOICE)...BUT
STILL LOOK TO FALL A TOUCH BELOW EARLY MAY NORMALS.

EXTENDED (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...NORTHERN MICHIGAN LIES ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE COUNTRY`S
MIDSECTION. RIDGING ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY
RESULTING IN A RATHER PICTURE PERFECT SPRING DAY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGHS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES.
CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN...PERHAPS
BRINGING SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. LITTLE OF CONSEQUENCE TO END THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DRIVES OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS
ERN UPPER TO THE LOWER 70S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS OF NRN LOWER. POST
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS BACK NEAR
NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR.

WEAK PRESSURE OVER SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPPER MI WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SE. MID-CLOUDS AND HIGH-BASED CU WILL BE SEEN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CIGS WILL BE COMFORTABLY VFR. CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY PATCHY CIRRUS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING.

LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LIGHT SW
WINDS TUE MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT/VARIABLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ON LAKE MI IN THE AFTERNOON...JUST AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE A BETTER BET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MSB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ



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