Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 280658

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
258 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...Quiet and seasonable...

High impact weather potential...none.

1019mb high pressure is centered over Lake Superior. The high will
be quasi-stationary for most of the near-term period, eventually
dipping down to the WI/upper MI border late tonight. Aloft, a
closed-off shortwave is over central upper MI, and will dig across
northern MI this morning. This is a potent wave, but is quite
moisture-starved. Some mid clouds and even weak showers are seen
back in central WI, but this activity is moving to the se or
even sse, and will plainly miss us. Over our heads, just some
cirrus and high altocu.

If the timing of this shortwave were a little different, we could
almost have an interesting afternoon. Diurnal convection will
certainly sprout over the southern lakes this afternoon, ahead of
the wave. But we will see considerable height rises at 500mb this
afternoon, and corresponding warming/subsidence aloft. That will
suppress any chance for deep convection here. Mid/high clouds
will occur this morning, especially in northern lower MI, but
that will decrease this afternoon. Some cu will replace it for
part of this afternoon, especially south of M-72. Surface and
500mb ridging will contribute to largely clear skies tonight. A
touch of shallow ground fog possible tonight in some of the
boggier, fog- prone locales in northern MI. But too much mixing
today for that to be a major concern.

Will slightly broaden the diurnal temp range compared to guidance.
Max temps lower 70s (ne lower MI coast, with an onshore ne wind), to
around 80f (TVC area). Min temps near 50f interior to mid 50s coasts.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...Lots of sunshine...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Broad ridging aloft encompassing the western two-
thirds of the CONUS is expected to dominate the short term forecast
period. When combined with an expansive area of surface high
pressure across the Great lakes/Midwest, little in the way of
sensible weather is expected through the upcoming weekend. However,
by late Saturday night-Sunday, a subtle shortwave and associated
weak frontal boundary are progged to be dropping southeastward out
of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley before
crossing northern Michigan on Monday, but with little fanfare as it
does so.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Little in the way of
concern/impact through the upcoming weekend. Only challenge revolves
around temperatures and any diurnally driven cumulus.

Details: Not a whole lot of sensible weather to talk about for the
upcoming weekend as high pressure and strong subsidence across the
region provide mostly sunny skies and near to slightly above normal
temperatures. Light wind fields should allow for lake breezes to
develop both days, and perhaps some inland fair weather cu above a
well-mixed boundary layer.

High temperatures Saturday ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s
warm a couple of degrees for Sunday with the majority of northern
Lower topping out in the low-mid 80s (just a touch cooler north of
the bridge). Dropped Saturday night low temps just a couple of
degrees below guidance across the typically cooler/interior spots of
northern Lower as clear skies and light winds should promote decent
radiational cooling.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

High impact weather potential: Chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

The main focus through the extended revolves around the Monday and
Tuesday night-Wednesday timeframe. Guidance continues to hint at a
very subtle mid-level shortwave and associated weak frontal boundary
approaching the forecast area of Monday, but with even less fanfare
than was depicted 24-36 hours ago. Thus, the latest trends continue
to suggest limited forcing and anemic moisture will combine to yield
a dry Monday for most. Can`t completely rule out a pop-up afternoon
shower, but any activity should certainly be few and far between.

After generally quiet daylight hours on Tuesday, the threat for
showers and a few thunderstorms returns late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Despite more robust support sliding into the region from
the west, there remains uncertainty with just how much appreciable
rainfall we`ll be able to muster. At this juncture, scattered
showers and a few rumbles of thunder moving northwest to southeast
across the CWA looks like a good bet.

High temperatures continue to top out within a few degrees on either
side of normal...ranging from the mid-upper 70s to mid 80s area-


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1143 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

VFR conditions with north to northeast winds through this taf
period as high pressure slowly builds into the western Great Lakes.
Skies will continue to increase in mid and upper level clouds
tonight ahead of a disturbance in Wisconsin. This feature will
cross nrn Michigan Friday, likely only bringing some sct-bkn
cumulus. Air mass is awfully dry for rain chances. Maybe a
tendency for winds trying to turn a bit onshore/lake breezes
Friday afternoon. Clearing skies Friday night with winds going
lighter as the high inches closer.


Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

High pressure over Superior will support ne winds today. These
will be on the breezy side on Huron, and will approach advisory-
level conditions in some areas (especially near Oscoda/Tawas).
Will take a harder look at this later this morning. The high will
sag south into WI late tonight into Saturday, and ne to n winds
will slacken.




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