785
FXUS63 KDTX 061937
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
337 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Still breezy on Friday with high temperatures topping out around
  70 degrees.

- Temperatures running below normal over the Weekend into Monday,
with a good chance of showers Saturday afternoon/evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Breezy westerly winds have gusted above 30 mph, as temperatures have
climbed well into the 70s this afternoon.

12z INL raob indicated 500 MB height of 545 DAM, with a 500 MB temp
of -20 C. The cold core/500 MB low center tracking close to the
Straights and into Georgian Bay tomorrow morning. Stream of upper
level PV/Jet energy on the backside of this circulation will track
through Lower Michigan tonight into tomorrow, triggering
isolated/scattered showers as the mid levels (5000-10000 kft)
steepen up with some modest cape generated. Activity should be
mostly over the Thumb region, closest to the departing upper level
low.

Still breezy on Friday, but the overall wind field looks slightly
weaker compared to today, so would expect only up to 30 mph or so.
Looking at high temperature around 70 degrees with the cooler start
and 850 MB temps progged to reside in the 7-8 C range.

Fast flow over the Great Lakes region this weekend with the jet
stream (110-15 knots at 250 MB) overhead.  Jet forcing and cold pool
tracking through Lake Superior expected to elicit a mid level FGEN
response over Lower Michigan with the tight baroclinic zone in place.
Good forcing is progged to reside over the north half of the CWA
Saturday afternoon, before sinking south Saturday afternoon. NBM
pops appear to be slow in increasing pops.

Perhaps some isolated showers to close out the weekend as cool
cyclonic flow/shortwave tracks through the Central Great Lakes.
Otherwise, upper level ridge builds in early next week (by Tuesday)
supporting cool nights (40s) and dry/mild days (70s).

&&

.MARINE...

Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all nearshore zones as post-
frontal winds remain strong and bring potential for hazardous waves.
Chances for some light showers through the rest of the evening today
over northern Lake Huron. Upper level low remains in place tomorrow,
maintaining westerly flow and sustaining chances for light wrap-
around showers. Winds once again reach 20 knots gusting to 25 with a
similar setup to today`s winds, which have been overachieving at
times today. As the upper level low continues to bring chances for
light showers to the Great Lakes and moves off to the east this
weekend, it develops an trough to the east, bringing a ridge over
Michigan and an associated high pressure to start next week. Winds
lighten slightly to 10-15 knots over the weekend before the high
pressure center settles overhead and brings winds below 10 knots.
The next low pressure system is expected to arrive mid-week next
week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

AVIATION...

A broad area of low pressure is locked in across northern Ontario
and will be in control of conditions across Lower Mi today through
Friday. West wind is the highlight for this afternoon as gusts in
the 20-30 knot range carry in cooler and less humid air. The low
pressure influence contributes to increasing VFR cumulus across SE
Mi with greater coverage toward MBS where a stray light shower is
also possible late afternoon through this evening. Mid level clouds
linger after midnight and again with greater coverage toward MBS
where ceiling approaches MVFR by sunrise Friday morning.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected this
afternoon through Friday.

 DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for exceeding crosswind threshold this afternoon.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......BC
AVIATION.....BT


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