Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 101731
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1031 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

WE HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX AS WINDS HAVE
DECREASED INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH OVERALL GUSTS REMAINING
BELOW 50 MPH. THE NAM STILL SHOWS 50+ KT FLOW AT H8...SO WE CANNOT
RULE OUT WINDS INCREASING AGAIN AS LLVL MIXING ENSUES. EXPECT THIS
IS THE END OF THE STRONGEST WINDS THOUGH AS SURFACE PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE THIS MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AS EXPECTED IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OVERNIGHT. MSAS SFC PRESSURE TENDENCIES SHOW ROUGHLY 6MB/6HR
PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
RESPONSE. MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING ARE SEEING WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
OCCURRING AT BORDEAUX WITH SUSTAINED WINDS CONSISTENTLY ABOVE 40
MPH GUSTING 50 TO 55 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. MAKES SENSE BASED ON
PRESSURE FALLS TO THE EAST AND THE STRONG LLVL INVERSION IN PLACE
TRAPPING THE ACCELERATING WINDS NEAR THE SFC. WINDS ALOFT STILL
LEAVE SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED WRT HIGHER WIND GUSTS...BUT A FEW 50
KTS BARBS ARE PROGGED JUST OFF THE SURFACE WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY
MIX DOWN WITH SUNRISE. WITH THE COMBINATION OF HIGH SUSTAINED
WINDS AND POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING...WENT AHEAD
WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE BORDEAUX AREA. IN THE REMAINING
WIND PRONE AREAS OF ARLINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MILD AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH TEMPS
INCREASING WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SOME QUESTION EXISTS WHETHER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
(PARTICULARLY SIDNEY) WILL EXCEED WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WINDS IN THE 850-800 MB LAYER
WILL BE AROUND 45 KTS THROUGH 18Z...BUT NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A VERY STRONG NEAR SURFACE INVERSION PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY. SO THINKING THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
JUST GENERAL BREEZINESS LIKELY FOR SIDNEY.

PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS IN ORDER FOR THURSDAY WITH TEMPS PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER UNDER MORE CLOUD COVER STREAMING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BACK WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS
OVERALL FOR FRIDAY AND MUCH LESS WIND. IN FACT...SFC WINDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRATUS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN STRENGTHENING POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOUNDINGS EVEN SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE MOIST LAYER DEEPENS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL KEEP OUT MENTION FOR FOG/DRIZZLE FOR
NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHERE OR EVEN IF IT WILL OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKYS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS A LITTLE
STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT MAINLY OVER THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH PCPN WITH IT. IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY. AFTER THAT MILDER BUT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE CWA RESIDES UNDER A FAIRLY FAST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ACCENTUATING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EXCEPT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET AGL.
THROUGH 00Z...WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 37 KNOTS AT WYOMING SITES...
AND 25 TO 28 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

THROUGH 00Z...WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 31 KNOTS AT SCOTTSBLUFF AND
SIDNEY SITES...THEN AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALL NEBRASKA SITES AFTER
15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
RESIDUAL SNOWPACK AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM


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