Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 251900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
100 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Unsettled weather ahead through the next few days into next week.
Forecast challenges deal with timing and location of precip.

Currently...Cold front extends from eastern Montana, south to near
Casper to just west of Rawlins, into northern Utah this afternoon.
Showers confined to northwestern Wyoming on mosaic radar this
afternoon. Pretty tranquil conditions over our county warning area
this afternoon as skies continue to thicken and lower. afternoon
temperatures running in the mid to upper 50s across the area.

Front forecast to move into our western zones (Carbon County)
after 00Z (5PM) today to Converse and Albany Counties near 06Z
(11PM)and then into the northern Nebraska Panhandle and around
Cheyenne by the 09-12Z (2-5AM) timeframe. Would expect these time
to be when showers would begin to break out across the CWFA. HRRR
simulated radar confirms this timing as the front moves through
tonight. Not a lot of cold air behind this system. 700mb
temperatures fall from +1 to +4C this afternoon down to -4C to -1C
from west to east. Snow could develop in the valleys out west as
this colder air moves into the area. As for eastern areas, do
expect showers to remain all liquid.

Not expecting much in the way of accumulations as QPF fields are
fairly low on all the guidance forecasts. Looks like a
cloudy/showery day for Sunday with highs in the 40s and low 50s
from west to east.

Best chances for precip looks to be late in the short term as our
next Pacific low moves into northern New Mexico Tuesday
afternoon. Given the performance of the guidance on our last low
pressure system, will lean towards a low confidence forecast on
snow accumulations and timing for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Tuesday night/Wednesday...Strong upper trough moves slowly across
northern New Mexico with widespread rain and snow showers progged to
spread west to east across our counties Tuesday night. After
daybreak Wednesday, the upper low is forecast to track into east
central New Mexico with ridging moving over our counties north of
the low. In response, precipitation is expected to end from west to
east during the day.

Thursday...Transitory shortwave ridging aloft progged to move across
our counties, producing a dry day with warmer temperatures due to
more sunshine and a moderating airmass.

Friday...Next vigorous closed low aloft progged to move southeast to
near the Four Corners by late afternoon, while a cold front moves
across our counties, with a chance of showers across most of our
region. Cooler temperatures due to expected precipitation and
extensive cloud cover.

Saturday...The closed low is progged to continue moving southeast
into southern New Mexico, a further south track than the previous
weather disturbance, thus lesser chances for precipitation across
our counties, especially in the afternoon when the bulk of
precipitation and clouds associated with the upper low, is progged
to move over Colorado.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Wyoming TAFS...VFR prevails, except for MVFR at Rawlins from 03Z
to 15Z. MVFR at Laramie from 06Z to 15Z. MVFR at Cheyenne from
09Z to 15Z.

Nebraska TAFS...VFR prevails, except for IFR at Chadron, Alliance
and Sidney after 12Z, and MVFR at Scottsbluff after 11Z.


Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Unsettled weather for the upcoming work week. No fire weather
concerns through the weekend. Minimum humidity values will mostly
be above 25 percent this afternoon. Cooler temperatures along
with a chance of rain and snow showers are expected on Sunday.




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