Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 120318
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
918 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

CONVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM STRONGER
STORMS WITH MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS BEING EAST OF THE MTNS INTO
THIS EVENING. ANY FLOODING THAT MIGHT OCCUR SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
LOCALIZED. SOME HAIL THREAT STILL THERE AS WELL THOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT NOT ALL THAT GREAT. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
THOUGH SOME MAY HANG ON OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS SFC UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS DURING THE DAY ALLOWS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. INSTABILITY NOT PROGGED TO BE AS
GREAT THOUGH SO ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE.
TEMPS JUST A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVITY WILL DIE OUT
SAT EVENING. A STRONGER FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY WITH SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER
THE WEST. THIS STAGNANT PATTERN WILL KEEP THE CWA UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 70S BELOW 7500 FEET...WITH
60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON
MONDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT VEERING TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT...WITH MINIMAL CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION FURTHER EAST IN THE MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL CARRY ALONG PLENTIFUL PACIFIC
MOISTURE...THUS WILL SEE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND UPSLOPE FORCING. GFS IS PRODUCING
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KTS OVER THE CWA WITH THE JET
OVERHEAD SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS ORGANIZE TO
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS
ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST
TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBOUND
BACK OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS WARMING FOR THE CWA
AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THROUGH 06Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
LOCALIZED TURBULENCE AND MVFR...PRIMARILY AT THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
AERODROMES...OTHERWISE VFR.

06Z TO 18Z...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z...WITH LOCALIZED IFR AT THE WESTERN NEBRASKA AERODROMES.

AFTER 18Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR AND TURBULENCE ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS
REMAINING NON-CRITICAL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MOST
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH SUNDAY THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED
NEXT WEEK. DRY LIGHTNING NOT EXPECTED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE





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