Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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032
FXUS65 KCYS 041431
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
731 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATED FORECAST TO CANCEL THE GROUND BLIZZARD WARNING FOR OUR
EASTERN WIND PRONE AREAS INCLUDING SW OF WHEATLAND AROUND BORDEAUX
AND THE I-80 SUMMIT AND FOOTHILLS. KEPT THE GROUND BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA BETWEEN LARAMIE AND RAWLINS WITH
ALL WEBCAMS IN THAT AREA SHOWING ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES OR
LOWER AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ENOUGH
ON THE I-80 SUMMIT FOR ROADS TO BE REOPENED...BUT STILL CONCERNED
WITH STRONG WINDS IN THAT AREA AS WELL AS BORDEAUX. MODELS DO
SHOW GRADIENT WEAKENING SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THESE AREAS FOR GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW IN
THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...PRETTY STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
CRAIG TO CASPER SURFACE GRADIENT AT 1 AM ROUGHLY 14.5MBS. 06Z
850/700MB GRADIENTS OFF THE NAM WRKHGT PRODUCT AT 56/49MTRS
RESPECTIVELY AND ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 60/52MTRS BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. WYDOT SENSORS REPORTING STRONG WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS WHILE THEIR WEBCAMS ARE ALSO SHOWING POOR VISIBILITIES.
CURRENT HEADLINES LOOKING GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH NO CHANGES.
BOTH INTERSTATE 80 AND 25 REMAIN CLOSED AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
CLOSED THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

WE DO START TO SEE A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY LATE MORNING. GFS
700MB WINDS FALL FROM 55KTS AT 12Z DOWN TO 40KTS AFTER 18Z. MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH TO DECREASE BLOWING SNOW THOUGH AND WE MAY NEED TO
EXTEND HEADLINES INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A
LOOK ONCE THE SUN RISES AND WE CAN SEE EXTENT OF BLOWING SNOW IN
WEBCAMS BETTER.

NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. STILL HAVE PRETTY GOOD CHANCES FOR MOST
AREAS TO SEE SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH
THIS SYSTEM. ONLY GETTING 4 INCHES THOUGH FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANYTHING FOR THEM.

THINKING WE WILL NEED MORE WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GFS 700MB WINDS BACK UP CLOSE TO 60KTS WITH NAM CRAIG TO
CASPER 850/700MB GRADIENTS BACK TO 70/56MTRS BY 12Z SATURDAY. GFS
GRADIENTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH 74/65MTRS RESPECTIVELY. LOCAL
WRKBRX WIND PRODUCT SHOWING A 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL WINDS AT BORDEAUX...SO IT IS LOOKING GOOD FOR HIGH WINDS IN
THE WIND PRONE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO HOIST A WATCH AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

SATURDAY NIGHT...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WYOMING ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK MOST
LIKELY AND MAINLY NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.

SUNDAY...WINDY AND COLD DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT BASED ON PROJECTED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS.

MONDAY...CONTINUED WINDY BASED ON PROJECTED LOW AND MID LEVEL
GRADIENTS. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT WARMING POTENTIAL
THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND PER HEIGHT AND
THICKNESS RISES.

TUESDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
CONTINUE TO RISE AND RESPOND TO RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING TOWARDS OUR
FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO NORTHWEST HELPING THE SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOP FURTHER AND ALSO HELPING TO WARM THE ATMOSPHERE
AND CONTINUE OUR WARMING TREND PER HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

WYOMING TAFS...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
3500 FEET AGL. WINDS GUSTING TO 41 KNOTS AT RAWLINS THROUGH 00Z...
TO 33 KNOTS AT LARAMIE AND TO 34 KNOTS AT CHEYENNE.

NEBRASKA TAFS...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
3500 FEET AGL. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AT SIDNEY THROUGH 22Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH A WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FIRE DISTRICT. STRONG WINDS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY WARM US UP SOME...BUT NOT TOO
MUCH AS COLD AIR REMAINS OVERHEAD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ104-
     105-109-113-115>117.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



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