Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 152152
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
352 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY FAR MOST SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD. WARM TEMPERATURES BOTH
AFTERNOONS WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVEN
AROUND 90 OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE WEDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS
POP OVER THE MTNS LATE WEDS AS SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPS OVER THE AREA BUT WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL HINDER IT
SOME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW UNDER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND DRY MIDLEVELS.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. ALSO THERE IS A HURRICANE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
WHICH WILL BE IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BIG
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR MOVE OF THE AREA AS COOL
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PLAINS. EVEN WITH A COOL DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
NORM FOR THE LATER HALF OF SEPTEMBER. GOING OUT FURTHER INTO THE
EXTENDED IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP BUT OVERALL AVIATION CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS THE COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY SPARSE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
VFR IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY THIN
FOG INTO LOW LYING AREAS BUT ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL OVERALL. MIN
AFTERNOON RHS WILL GET RATHER LOW IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER WESTERN
AREAS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RE





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