Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 200844
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
244 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS OF EXTREME EASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY
OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
MOISTURE ALOFT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM COLORADO. THIS WILL BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP HOWEVER...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A QUICK RAIN SHOWER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE...JUST ANOTHER PLEASANT WARM DAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE...WILL PUSH INLAND AND EVENTUALLY INTO IDAHO AND WYOMING
BY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOTHING REALLY
IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AS THE
JET STREAM QUICKLY WEAKENS AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
RIDGE...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20
TO 30 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH VALUES AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
LOW TO MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND LI/S BETWEEN ZERO AND -2C. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. PRECIP VALUES WILL BE LIGHT WITH QPF VALUES
BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...AND BETWEEN A
0.10 TO 0.25 IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN THOUGH...DRY
CONDITIONS...SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE EXTREMELY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD CONTINUES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE AREA TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT









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