Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 021156
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
556 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...AIDED IN PART BY
SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND A SFC TROF THAT WILL EDGE NORTHEAST
INTO EAST CENTRAL WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. THIS SFC TROF MAY
FOCUS SOME TSTRM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DECENT
CAPES LURKING VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST PART OF THE CWA IF NOT JUST A
LITTLE INSIDE. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING AS A MINOR UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.

A COOL FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER IMPULSE WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDS. EXPECT TO
SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS WEDS AND THIS COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
DAY. CAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG PROGGED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WEDS
BUT IT MAY BE A RELATIVELY LATE SHOW FOR STORMS WITH THE NEXT
UPPER IMPULSE ARRIVING MORE TOWARDS WEDS EVENING. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MORE LIKELY WITH BETTER SHEAR EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY
LIKELY CONTINUING OVER THE PLAINS WEDS EVENING.

NO BIG CHANGES SEEN FOR THURSDAY WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE RETREATING SFC
BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION THOUGH BUILDING HEIGHTS MAY
HINDER IT SOME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLING IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING NORTHWEST INTO NEVADA
BY SUNDAY AND WEAKENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES
BY SUNDAY. WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. TO START...LOOKING AT A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH
SBCAPES PROGGED BETWEEN 1000-3000 J/KG AND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER THIS AREA. CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF
STRATUS/FOG OVER THE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING UP INTO WYOMING FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WILL
STRENGTHEN SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH INCREASED
VEERING FLOW PROGGED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS WELL. LOOKING
AT A BROADER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AS A
RESULT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 30-40KTS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD BE MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG
THE ROCKIES. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...AND A FAIR NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BE PUSHING 80F. PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW ON MONDAY WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH STRATUS ALSO EVIDENT ALONG THE WY/NE/CO BORDER.
STILL THINK THE STRATUS COULD IMPACT MAINLY KCYS AND THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SITES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS TURNING TO A MORE
NORTHERLY FETCH AND SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS LOOKS TO MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NO CONCERNS SEEN IN THE NEAR FUTURE WITH FUELS PRETTY MUCH IN
GREENUP AND WEATHER FACTORS REMAINING NON-CRITICAL. WARM TODAY
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE LARAMIE RIVER NEAR FT LARAMIE AND THE LOWER N PLATTE RIVER WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BE ENTIRELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGES BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE INCREASING SNOW
MELT OVER THE MTNS WILL RAISE THE UPPER N PLATTE DURING THE WEEK
BUT NOT YET EXPECTED TO ATTAIN FLOOD STAGE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
RIVERS FOR ANY EFFECTS FROM RUNOFF FROM ANY HEAVIER RAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...RE


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