


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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560 FXUS65 KCYS 020931 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 331 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and daily chances for PM showers and thunderstorms will continue late this week and into the weekend. - Seasonably warm on July 4th with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms earlier in the day. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 308 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Not many changes to the previous forecast package as all models continue to show a typical summer weather pattern setting up across the western United States extending eastward into the Front Range and Rocky Mountain Region. For today, models show the developing ridge axis strengthening and extending northward out of Texas into southern Wyoming. 700mb temperatures will respond with values between 14c to 18c across eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. These temperatures will translate to surface highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s across a bulk of the forecast area. This ridge axis is expected to drift eastward slowly, which should suppress deep convection across the eastern plains for much of the day. There is also no noticeable forcing today, so expect single cell thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming this afternoon through this evening. A few runs of the HRRR wanted to initiate near the Nebraska border today, but have since backed off as of 06z. This makes sense after looking at current model soundings with a dry and stable layer around 500mb. Kept any mention of thunderstorms/showers mainly along and west of Interstate 25, and even this may be a little too far east given current model trends. Gusty winds are possible with this activity (including shower activity). For Thursday, models continue to trend wetter with a higher coverage of thunderstorms...at least across southeast Wyoming. Models show a broad eastern Pacific trough moving into the Great Basin Region and finally into the Rocky Mountain area Thursday afternoon. This feature is expected to advect some subtropical moisture ahead of the trough as PWATs increase between 1.00 to 1.50 inches. A quick look at NAEFS shows PWAT and specific humidity between the 90th and 95th percentile across mainly southeast Wyoming but also extending east into western Nebraska late in the day. Can`t rule out some heavy persistent rain showers with this feature. WPC continues to indicate a marginal risk for excessive rainfall along and west of the I-25 corridor. Kept POP between 40 to 60 percent through the evening hours. Slightly cooler temperatures for Friday as the upper level trough lifts northeast across the area and brings some cooler air and increased cloud cover over the region. High temperatures will still be near normal for this time of the year and generally in the 80s. Showers and thunderstorms may actually occur earlier in the day as the trough axis moves east of the region by midday. This may result in mild and pleasant weather for the late evening hours of July 4th. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 330 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Somewhat drier conditions on Saturday as models show a shortwave ridge axis building over Colorado and Wyoming behind the upper level trough. This will be short-lived as most synoptic models show a back door cold front moving southwest across the high plains with ample surface convergence and moisture along the mountains. For next week, we will continue to monitor the development of a strong 595 to 600dm upper level high developing near the four corners region/eastern Great Basin. At this time, most models and ensembles have trended further southwest with this upper level high...developing closer to Nevada with northwest flow aloft across southeast Wyoming. Kept temperatures close to average for now with a daily chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Will need to watch this pattern closely since it can be a pattern conducive for severe weather across the high plains as we head into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1140 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Shower and thunderstorm activity has ended for the night with skies becoming mostly clear through early Wednesday morning. Upper level ridge axis will build over the area Wednesday resulting in less coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Another round of showers and possible thunderstorms are forecast for Wednesday afternoon, but should mainly impact KRWL and KLAR. Further east, can`t rule out some shower activity and an embedded thunderstorm, but confidence is too low to include for KCYS and the western Nebraska terminals. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...TJT