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000
FXUS65 KCYS 022356
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
456 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

THE PATTERN WILL TURN ZONAL FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...PUSHING THE
SFC HIGH OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY
BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE LARAMIE RANGE OVR THE WEEKEND
WILL PUSH EAST...MOVING EAST OF THE CWFA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. AT 21Z...FRONT WAS LOCATED AT AROUND 5500 FEET IN
THE SE WYOMING PLAINS...WITH VEDAUWOO 34F...CHEYENNE 25F...AND PINE
BLUFFS 14F. AREAS EAST OF THIS FRONT WERE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10F AT 21Z. AT ANY RATE...THE RESULT WILL BE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE REACHED THIS EVENING WITH WARMING OVERNIGHT TEMPS THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
MAY FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND WITH WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL HOLD OFF ON A HIGHLIGHT ISSUANCE. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS LIFTED
INDICES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE WEST OF THIS FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN WEAK SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THESE TOO SHOULD DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AS
STABILIZATION OCCURS.

ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF LIFTED INDICES MAINLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
ON MONDAY. INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF EMBEDDED MOISTURE IN
THE FLOW WILL YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERY
CONVECTION. DEPENDING ON HOW THESE ORGANIZE...PERHAPS COULD SEE UP
TO AN INCH IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE. THE MORE NOTICEABLE
CHANGE TOMORROW WILL BE TEMPERATURES. WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY IN
THE REAR VIEW MIRROR AND H7 TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -5C FULLY MIXED
WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 40S AT MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
IN THE WIND CORRIDOR AS DEVELOPING LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES THE GRADIENT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH IN THE VICINITY
OF ARLINGTON TOMORROW.

MOST OF TUESDAY WILL BE NICE...BUT EYES WILL BEGIN PEERING WEST AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC MOISTURE TAKES AIM ON THE
AREA. A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. LLVL THERMAL ADVECTIONS WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE...SO EXPECT VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS WAS
SEEN MONDAY. FROPA WILL JUST BE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE CWFA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO ON TUES NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM
INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES OVER ABOUT A
6-9 HR PERIOD ON TUES EVENING AND NIGHT. QPF OFF THESE MODELS
SHOWS AN AXIS OF 0.2-0.3 INCHES ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE 12Z GFS...IN CONTRAST TO ITS 06Z RUN...IS
MUCH DRIER. GENERALLY HAVE CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY. HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY WED IN THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. WHILE TEMPS ON WED WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IT IS
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THURS AS 700MB TEMPS
RISE TO AROUND 2-4C WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WILL LIKELY BE SOME HIGH WIND CONCERNS OVER THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WY ON THURS MORNING INTO THE AFTN AS THE 700MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS AROUND 60 METERS. MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW UP BY FRI MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DIGS AS IT HEADS INTO UTAH-COLORADO. THE ECMWF YET AGAIN SHOWS MORE
QPF BEHIND THE FROPA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS COLORADO. SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE SO AFTER A BRIEF
COOLDOWN ON FRI...TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KSNY WHERE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ADVECT MVFR CIGS TO THIS AREA THROUGH AROUND 03Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE MONDAY MORNING. GUSTS OF 25
TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE WYO TERMINALS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW LATE
TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME MIN HUMIDITY VALUES LOWERING TO
BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN