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000
FXUS65 KCYS 280537
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1037 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CHEYENNE HAS SET YET ANOTHER JANUARY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY GETTING TO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN
TO INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THEY HAVE NOT
BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS FEATURE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS ARE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL RISE FURTHER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE 850MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT (CURRENTLY AROUND 40 METERS) WILL PEAK AT 55
METERS BY 09Z WED. THIS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING YESTERDAY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STRONGEST PREFRONTAL
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 03-06Z AT BORDEAUX AND ARLINGTON...THEN THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND
LARAMIE BEHIND THE FRONT (AROUND 09Z). MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT AT CHEYENNE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO A BIT
MORE CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WILL GET GUSTS CLOSE TO 50
KT CONSIDERING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE. HIGH WIND
WARNINGS APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED...ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MARGINAL.

IT WILL BE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES COOLER. WINDS ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG INTERSTATE 80 STRETCHING
FROM KIMBALL TO SIDNEY. THIS IS WHERE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN. THINKING IS
THAT WINDS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT IS
SOMETHING THAT THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT SHOWING 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING TROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS IS OVER
NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. EXPECT ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON FRI. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS FOR FRIDAY...BUT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FROPA WILL TEND TO COMPLICATE
THINGS. CONSENSUS MOS STILL SUGGESTS MID 40S FOR HIGHS...ALTHOUGH H7
TEMPS AROUND -5 DEG C PER THE GFS/ECMWF MAKE THAT A LITTLE DIFFICULT
TO BELIEVE. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROGS RAMP UP ON SAT/SUN ALONG WITH MOIST
OROGRAPHICS OVER THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES. SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW SITUATED WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE US
AND MEXICO BORDER. OUR MOUNTAINS WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE BEST AIR MASS AT BEST...SO AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE A SUB
ADVISORY EVENT. MAIN COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT OR SUN AS
H7 TEMPS PLUNGE TO AROUND -10 DEG OVER THE WY/NE STATE LINE. A FEW
PIECES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY EMANATING FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW MAY KEEP
AT LEAST ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
IT WILL BE VERY DIFFERENT THAN OUR RECENT STRETCH OF RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH...NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL EAST OF LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ALONG/WEST OF LARAMIE RANGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR AFTER 10Z AS LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF RAWLINS...SARATOGA AND LARAMIE. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS WITH GUSTS OF
40-50 KT. FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AFTER FROPA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 PERCENT. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...ZF