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000
FXUS65 KCYS 080642
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1142 PM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

VERY MINIMAL CHANGES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. KEPT HIGH POPS
GOING FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN
HAVING A TOUGH TIME SATURATING TO THIS POINT WITH MUCH MOISTURE
BEING BLOCKED BY THE COLORADO ROCKIES BUT STARTING TO SEE MORE
RETURNS ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. AS STRONGER UPPER FORCING COMES
IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD START TO SEE THINGS
SATURATE WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO UPWARDS OF A COUPLE INCHES EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE INCLUDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT GENERALLY INDICATE PLATES AND NEEDLES
FOR ICE CRYSTAL TYPE SUCH THAT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER
END OF COURSE THAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY LIGHT WINDS. ALSO
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE ISENTROPIC FORCING TONIGHT WITH
THE MAIN LIFT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WHICH ALSO INDICATES SLOW
PRECIPITATION RATES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST. MAY ACTUALLY SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING IN SOME PLACES AS SNOW
DEVELOPS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES. ON THE OTHER HAND...ANYWHERE
THAT CLOUD COVER BREAKS TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING...
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REMAIN VERY COLD. MAINLY LOOKING FOR HIGHS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TO KICK IN MONDAY
AS WEST WINDS TAKE OVER. SOME PLACES WILL BE QUITE WINDY AND EVEN
WITH THE WARMER AIR ADVECTION WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW
MONDAY. MAY AGAIN NEED WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THIS
PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS SEEN AFFECTING THE AREA. A
GENERALLY NW OR WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE LITTLE EFFECT OTHER
THAN BRING A SHOT OF COOL AIR VIA A BACK-DOOR FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOL FOR WEDS. LEE TROFFING
DEVELOPS WEDS NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A WARM-UP THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT
PACIFIC FRONT PASSES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A BIT COOLER AGAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COULD BE
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION IS NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY INCLUDING IT IN TAFS. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WINDSPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 15 KTS. CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE ABOVE 5 THOUSAND FEET BY
LATE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 449 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THAT THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW LATER TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     WYZ112-114.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN