Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 161756 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1156 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM (REST OF TODAY) TO
MAKE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDCOVER...BUT FORECAST
GENERALLY ON TRACK. 02/GARMON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
KICK OFF SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE.

FOR TODAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD CLEAR THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING OR SO. PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY NOON TIME OR SO THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. WINDS A SMALL CONCERN FOR THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS
THE GFS SHOWS 850MB WINDS THIS MORNING 35 TO 40KTS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THESE WINDS FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY OUT THAT WAY.
WINDS REALLY EASE THIS AFTERNOON AS GFS SHOWS 850MB WINDS OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15KTS.

PRETTY NICE DAY THURSDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +2C BY
FRIDAY MORNING. 60S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD IN THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY
WITH 50S WEST. EVEN WARMER DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
FOR THE PANHANDLE. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS
HAS THIS AS A DRY FRONT. NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF DOES
HAVE SOME PRECIP OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST GOING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. THE LEESIDE SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WITH
A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SFC TROUGH OVER NE CO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC WINDS WILL BE A STRONGER UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
FORCING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY WITH VERY
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE CWA. A STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY WITH WEAK ENERGY
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS ENERGY COULD SPARK OFF A
FEW WEAK TSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN BACK TO THE SW ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES HANDLING THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS OVERALL MUCH
STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN THE ECMWF. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WELL
WITHIN THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH...SO EXPECTING CONTINUED VERY
WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

ALL FORECAST SITES AT MVFR OR VFR CURRENTLY...WITH HIGHEST WINDS
25G40KT HOLDING THROUGH 4 PM FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SITES
UNTIL THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER IDAHO SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING...THEN WE SHOULD SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AS NEXT
JETMAX SWINGS THROUGH...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A
MENTION IN AVIATION FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MENTIONED SOME LIGHT
FOG WITH CEILINGS 1000-2000 FT AGL AT MOST SITES LATE TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE
LIGHT WINDS VEER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  02/GARMON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE AREA REMAINS IN COLD
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TODAY WILL
BE QUITE HIGH...IN THE MID 30S AND LOW 40S. DRIER CONDITIONS INTO
FRIDAY...BUT HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GARMON
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







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