Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 242031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
231 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Tonight...Another quiet and stable airmass day is on tap with quite
minimal chances for evening showers and thunderstorms. Expect
another relatively cool night, though a few degrees warmer at most
locations as the airmass moderates.

Sunday...The cool and relatively stable airmass remains in place, so
shower and thunderstorm chances appear quite minimal, except perhaps
for isolated afternoon thunderstorms over and near the southern
Laramie Range.

Monday...Upper ridge axis moves ever so slightly closer to our
forecast area. With limited low level forcing and moisture, and a
relatively stable low level, chances for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms appears quite minimal. Warming trend
continues and have compromised between the NAM and GFS MOS
maximums for high temperatures.

Monday night...Minimum temperatures even warmer than Sunday night as
the airmass moderates and with an increase in low level moisture.
Continued dry with lack of lifting mechanisms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

A more active pattern is setting up through the remainder of the
week. The models are in fairly good agreement in showing several
shortwaves moving through the base of the upper trof in central
Canada. The timing of these shortwaves will be very difficult to
ascertain through the week. At this point, it appears like the
initial shortwave is progged to move through on Tuesday. This
shortwave may tap into to some decent instability (1000-1500j/kg) mainly
east of the Laramie range on Tuesday, but the shear profiles are
somewhat limited for severe convection. However, cannot rule out a
few strong storms. Behind this shortwave, we may have a brief
period of northerly flow, which may also stabilize and limit
convection potential on Wednesday. The next in a series of
shortwaves may move through on Thursday or Friday and bring
another shot of thunderstorms. Things may turn a bit cooler behind
this next shortwave, but should not be as cool as it has been
this weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Fairly quiet weather pattern is anticipated during the next 24 hrs
due to the influence of strong high pressure in place. As a
result, light wind speeds and VFR conditions is expected.


Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Minimal concerns with relatively light winds the next few days,
even though humidities will be rather low in the afternoons west
of Interstate 25.




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