Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KCYS 012054
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
254 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS OF SE WY AT THIS TIME
WITH A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS AIDED BY AN APPROACHING IMPULSE IN THE UPPER FLOW.
ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE IMPULSE MOVES BY AND HAVE
TAILORED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION.

OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE CWA UNDER A NWLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT LEAVING A MODEST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE THURSDAY ALONG WITH A BIT COOLER TEMPS.
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING/MOVING OUT. SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS SLIPS EASTWARD
FRIDAY REDUCING THE UPSLOPE FLOW BUT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A LITTLE
MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY MORE OVER SE WY HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH PRECIP CHANCES JUST
ABOUT EVERYDAY.

STARTING OFF SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH A 591DM HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AREA. PERHAPS OUR DRIEST
DAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS OUT
WEST.

STRONG AND ABNORMALLY COOL SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF ALBERTA PROVINCE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP FROM +20C SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...TO +12C SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY +8C MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF VERY SIMILAR ON SOLUTIONS FOR
THE FRONT TIMING. PRETTY STRONG 850MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OUT
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COULD BE SEEING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS ECMWF 850MB WINDS 35 TO 40KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN LIKELY MONDAY WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDFLOW. FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP CONVECTIVE...BUT IF THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES...WILL PROBABLY NEED TO SWITCH TO STRATIFORM IN
LATER FORECASTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE MONSOON SETTING UP OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FROM MONDAY ON INTO THE WEEK. NOT REALLY LIKING THE
SETUP OF THE 500MB HIGH THOUGH...ITS NOT IN THE RIGHT LOCATION FOR
US TO GET WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ON EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR A
LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE BEFORE UPPING POPS FURTHER.

ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHERN
WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD BE OUR NEXT SEVERE CONVECTIVE
EVENT AS 70KT JET MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH FAVORABLE LFQ DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. USED LATEST HRRR FOR TIMING ON CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST IN THE PANHANDLE ALL NIGHT. GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY FOG THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR PANHANDLE LOCATIONS AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS CHEYENNE. EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS
WILL AID IN LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO CONCERNS SEEN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH FUELS GREEN AND
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINING NON-CRITICAL OVERALL. THERE WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS BUT DRY LIGHTNING NOT EXPECTED.
WETTING RAINS LIKELY WHERE STRONGER STORMS OCCUR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.