Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 261755
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1155 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SE WY EARLY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX IN THAT AREA...QUITE EVIDENT ON THE
88D. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD EXIT THE
CWA BY MID-MORNING.

EXPECT SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO RE-FIRE INITIALLY AROUND THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND MINOR RIPPLES CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEDS NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AS A MORE OPEN TROUGH. AS A RESULT AT LEAST SCTD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDS NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON THURSDAY. MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDS AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
MOVES UP AND A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN SETS UP FOR A TIME OVER THE
AREA. DECENT INSTABILITY PROGGED OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHEAR VALUES RATHER LOW SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE TOO ORGANIZED. EVEN
LESS INSTABILITY WEDS WITH ACTIVITY MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS. CONTINUED
MILD TODAY AND WEDS THEN A LITTLE WARMER THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN SUNDAY THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY.

AFTER ISOLATED EVE CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND SOUTHERN NE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL MT TO SOUTHERN SD/MN WILL ADVANCE EAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE CWA SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG WITH
STRONGER 700MB WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WY. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KT WILL
DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THESE WINDS COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY MAY RAISE THE FIRE DANGER FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 80S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND 60S AND 70S TO
THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS
MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 55 TO 65
FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...MOST NUMEROUS FROM LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE
TO SIDNEY...PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...TURBULENCE AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS.

AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A RAWLINS TO ALLIANCE LINE...PRODUCING IFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCUREMENT...WITH IFR PREVAILING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THOUGH WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR SOUTH OF A RAWLINS TO
SCOTTSBLUFF LINE IN SHOWERS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
AND DECENT CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE






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