Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 222153
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
353 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME ECHOS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MAINLY
VIRGA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
JET. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOMORROW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
AFFECT VIEWING THE OF SOLAR ECLIPSE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN THE WEST AND BREEZY IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. IF ANYTHING CLOUD COVER MAY
SOMEWHAT INHIBIT STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
EC HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA ALTHOUGH THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN SEVERAL WEEK BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF
OCTOBER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 3 TO 6
INCHES MIGHT BE A GOOD BET FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AT THIS TIME BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EC IS MUCH MORE OPTIMIST WITH ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL WATCH
THE MODLES TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR
NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO BIG AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML






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