Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 142259
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
359 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL OCCUR INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
INTO THE PLAINS. IMPACTS FROM SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE PLAINS WILL BE
MINIMAL AS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE
SNOW FALLS. ALSO ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE
SNOW SHOULD MELT ON CONTACT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION LATER TONIGHT AND SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. ANOTHER SHOT OF
SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
SNOWY RANGE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY
STAY BELOW HIGH WIND THRESHOLDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR
HIGH WIND THRESHOLDS BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAR INTO THE PLAINS WILL THE STRONG WINDS SPREAD BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WIND PRONE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING ALONG WITH THE LARAMIE VALLEY. A
HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ADJACENT PLAINS WHICH INCLUDES
WHEATLAND AND CHEYENNE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WED AND THE LLVL GRADIENT WILL
DECREASE. IT WILL BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF WIND AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT AT SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING
FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO WY ON THURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING (AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE) BY THURS AFTN. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ON
THURS NIGHT WITH A STRONG FROPA AND BORA WIND EVENT. THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE AND 700 MB WINDS OF 55-65 KTS.
THUS...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVEN SPREADING ONTO THE
PLAINS BY THURS NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. WHILE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA MADRE/SNOWY RANGES...THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH BREEZY-TO- WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS WILL BE COMMON. THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE SOME BY LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CIGS WITH BASES
AROUND 10000 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

MILD...DRY...AND WINDY FOR THIS UPCOMMING WEEK. MAY SEE A FEW
DAYS LATE THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES
DIPPING INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT
NOT EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
     WYZ106-110-115>117.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     WYZ107-118.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML


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