Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271251
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
751 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING WILL
ROUND THE EDGE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS LATER TODAY. AS THIS DOES, THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM HAYS, DOWN TO
NEAR DODGE CITY, AND WRAPPING BACK UP TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS STAFFORD
COUNTY. THIS IS A BLEND OF THE TWO ARW/WRF CORES, WHICH SHOWS THE STRONGEST
FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS REGION. A LOW TO MODERATE AMOUNT OF SBCAPE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP (1000-2000 J/KG). BULK SHEAR WILL BE WEAK TOO (20-30
KT). THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS ARE 50-60 MPH WINDS, NICKEL TO
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. UNDER THE STRONGEST
STORM, WOULD NOT RULE OUT 1" OF RAIN. MORE REALISTICALLY, RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPOTTY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. HAVE POPS TAPERING QUICKLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
OF THE MODELS CONTINUE PRECIP THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS WITH LIFT. OTHERWISE, HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WE WILL SEE A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS SLIGHTLY COOLER 850-HPA TEMPERATURES ADVECT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
EXPECTING UPPER 80S FOR THESE DAYS. THE HEAT WILL RETURN WITH 90S LIKELY
BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EXTENDED
MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SUPERBLEND HAS ISOLATED
15-20 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. I SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MOST AREAS REMAIN HOT AND DRY SINCE ANY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL
ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE FOR
THIS SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A line of scattered convection will likley develop late in the
afternoon through early evening, and TAF forecasts will need
adjusted for convective timing. The NMM models and ARW runs were
fairly agreeable on the farther south initiation zone as compared to
the 4 km NAM. Until that point breezy southerly surface winds in VFR
conditions will prevail, as boundary layer mixing develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  66  88  62 /  50  50  10   0
GCK  94  64  88  61 /  30  40  10   0
EHA  93  64  88  61 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  96  66  89  61 /  40  50  10   0
HYS  96  65  87  62 /  60  60  10   0
P28  98  70  91  66 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...Russell



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