Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200557
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS HAVE FIRMLY TRENDED TOWARD A FARTHER  SOUTH SOLUTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST TRACKING TROPICAL STORM REMNANT. AS A RESULT HEAVY RAINS
ARE UNLIKELY TONIGHT, AND IT`S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TO HAVE TROUBLE EVEN SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS AN OUTLIER THE THE GFS/NAM/EC WITH A
VORTICITY TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF HEAVY RAIN OVER LOCATIONS EAST
OF LIBERAL TO AROUND COLDWATER, BUT IT IS AN OUTLIER. EVEN THE NAM
REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY DESPITE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER AS WELL AS INCREASING (STILL RELATIVELY
LOW) POPS AFTER 18 UTC SATURDAY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH AN INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS AS
WELL AS INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH SHOULD BE EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST PROBLEM LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
RECIRCULATING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
FIRST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT MOVES SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. BOTH WRF CORES (ARW AND NMMB) AND NAM12 HAVE A FAIRLY
DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL IN THE 06-15Z TIME FRAME ALONG THE 850-
700MB FRONT, AND AS A RESULT HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE 06-12Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THESE STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSOLVE AFTER 15Z AS THEY APPROACH THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER, WITH THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SEEING RECOVERING SKY
COVER (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS) WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 70S, TOPPING OUT 80-83F OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH A LONGER PERIOD OF
THE DAY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS,
HELPING MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

A PACIFIC JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY, RESULTING IN FURTHER LEE TROUGH
DEEPENING MONDAY. THIS WILL DRAW UP MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
ENHANCING THE LOW STRATUS EVEN MORE CLOSE TO THE COLORADO BORDER.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING ABOVE LOWER TO MID
70S. THIS IS ALSO WHERE POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME SHOWERS. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, DEPENDING
ON DEGREE OF WARMING AND IF STRATUS SCATTERS OUT, SOME MORE VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
THE LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE WILL BE VERY GOOD, BUT THE LIMITING OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRAVEL FROM NORTHERN
UTAH TO SOUTH DAKOTA FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS WESTERN KANSAS, HIGH CHANCE POPS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT RESULT IN A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS FIRST LOW
LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST MID-WEEK WITH A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST COAST. A VERY IMPRESSIVE POLAR JET WILL
IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN CONUS ENHANCING THE LEE TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH FAIRLY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING AS
A RESULT. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-21Z,
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 10-13KTS AND
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KGCK/KDDC. BEFORE THEN, WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  82  57  80 /  30  40  10  10
GCK  62  81  58  77 /  30  30  10  20
EHA  61  79  60  75 /  20  30  20  40
LBL  64  82  60  80 /  30  30  20  20
HYS  60  77  53  76 /  30  20  10  10
P28  67  85  57  81 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH



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