Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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097
FXUS63 KDDC 161900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Shortwave trough passing over SW KS presently, with associated
frontal/outflow boundary making headway throgh the SE CWA.
Instability is mounting ahead of this wind shift across the SE
zones, with visible satellite imagery showing cumulus field
becoming agitated east of Dodge City. A rather robust severe
threat will evolve this afternoon across central Kansas (mainly
Wichita`s CWA), and will need to monitor Stafford, Pratt and
Barber counties over the next few hours for any convective
initiation. Mesoanalysis shows ML CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg as of
noon, with bulk shear near 40 kts. Medicine Lodge currently 84/70,
with backed SE surface winds. Where/if the warm sector can hang
on in our CWA (most likely SE Barber county near Kiowa) some rapid
thunderstorm development is possible. Otherwise, somewhat
cooler/drier NW winds of 15-25 mph will continue this afternoon
with highs primarily in the mid 80s.

Tonight...Clear with light and variable winds. Weak surface high
settles into SW KS, offering decent radiational cooling for
mid-August standards. Free air conditioning tonight, with
temperatures falling into the upper 50s across the northern and
western zones.

Thursday...Return flow commences, with gentle S/SE winds of
10-20 mph by afternoon. Models prog this return flow to be
relatively dry, with surface dewpoints only in the lower to
mid 50s. This, combined with a lack of forcing, results in a dry
forecast for all zones for all of Thursday through 7 pm. Afternoon
highs in the 86-92 range. Another thunderstorm complex (MCS)
expected to impact at least the southern zones near the Oklahoma
border Thursday night/Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Model guidance has been consistent on depicting some flavor of
noctornal thunderstorm activity Thursday night into Friday
morning. An MCS is probable during this time, but as is typical
location is ambiguous. Consensus is for convective initiation east
of the Raton Mesa Thursday afternoon, with subsequent upscale
growth eastward along and south of the KS/OK border. SPC Day 2
slight risk follows this scenario and it appears to be the most
likely outcome. NAM suggests a seperate complex originating from
the Cheyenne Ridge, impacting the northern zones near I-70
Thursday night. 12z ECMWF lends some credence to this too, with a
small MCS impacting all of the eastern zones by sunrise Friday
morning.

Beginning Friday, and continuing through early next week, a very
gradual rise in the midlevel height field is expected, with 500 mb
heights near 592 dm by Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures will be
noticeably hotter as a result, but nothing noteworthy for August,
with highs in the low to mid 90s. Am expecting rainfall chances
and coverage to degrade in this pattern, but am also confident
rain chances will not dry up completely. Warmer afternoon
temperatures in the 90s will still work with sufficient CAPE to
yield isolated late day thunderstorm activity. Most locations will
be dry through the weekend.

Early next week (by next Tuesday) 12z ECMWF forecasts a subtle
pattern shift, in which the strong summer subtropical high settles
over the SE US, and a weak cutoff low lingers over the eastern
Pacific near Los Angeles. This evolution would open up a pathway
for Mexican monsoonal moisture to find its way into the central
plains. Indeed, ECMWF depicts an embedded disturbance in this
pattern producing heavy rain in SW KS around the August 22/23
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Good flying weather expected through this TAF cycle. BKN stratus
and stratocumulus near HYS will continue to diminish to a
scattered cumulus field this afternoon. Shortwave trough
presently over western Kansas at midday will progress eastward
this afternoon. Any convection associated with this will be
restricted to near Pratt/Medicine Lodge this afternoon, and will
remain south and east of the TAF terminals. Modestly gusty NW
winds of 15-25 kts will continue through 00z. Weak surface high
settles into SW KS overnight, with winds becoming light and
variable through sunrise Thursday. After 15z Thu, SKC with light
return flow, south winds near 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  58  89  65 /  10  10  10  40
GCK  84  57  86  63 /  10  10  10  30
EHA  85  61  87  63 /  10  10  10  40
LBL  87  62  90  66 /  10  10  10  50
HYS  82  58  89  65 /  30  10   0  40
P28  91  65  90  68 /  20  20   0  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner



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