Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 281429

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1029 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Issued at 1029 AM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

The northern Great Lakes will be in a transition zone
today...between area of Canadian high pressure pushing in from the
northwest while the sfc boundary which sank south into lower
Michigan earlier this morning remains nearly stationary over
southern Michigan into this afternoon.

Current radar showing area of showers...which formed over the
Straits of Mackinac earlier this morning in narrow band of mid lvl
mstr (850mb dew pts around 13c)...continually sinking south across
the cwa. Latest short term model data show this mid lvl mstr band
dropping slowly south into central lower Michigan into the afternoon
...while drier air pushes over ern Upper and nrn Lower Michigan.
Overall...current forecast in line with drier air and diminishing
clouds dropping south across the cwa. Based on radar data...will
maintain some chance of showers over the srn cwa into the afternoon
before drying out this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

...Cooler and less humid today...

High impact weather potential: none.

A cold front is in far southern lower MI, moving slowly southward.
Some indications of a weak wave along the front in far nw IL/far
sw WI. Cooler/drier air making slow inroads into the forecast
area; dew points in eastern upper MI are down in the mid/upper
50s, but still linger in the mid 60s in far southern sections.
Showers have expanded into eastern upper MI/Straits area in the
overnight hours, and are grazing the nw lower MI coast. Precip
trends are the primary concern.

Today...will preface this by noting that it`s quite challenging
to find a model that has a handle on current conditions. In
particular, no one thinks it should be raining in eastern upper MI
right now. Advection of cool/dry low- level air into northern MI
will increase after sunrise, as a northerly breeze increases. This
occurs as high pressure over southern Manitoba extends ridging
eastward, just north of Superior. Deeper moisture will thus be
suppressed southward with time.

Expect ongoing precip to move slowly se with time, but also
diminish with time. A decreasing trend should play out during the
morning, as better forcing/shortwave energy will shift to our sw.
Still, will need considerably higher morning pops than guidance
favors across nw and far northern lower, and se upper MI. Eastern
upper will see precip stop from north to south, and not expecting
anything left there by late morning.

To the south, though cool/dry advection will occur, dew points
could hold up just enough in southern sections to produce weak
instability this afternoon. Nam/RAP are both on board with a few
-shra this afternoon in the MBL-CAD-HTL area, in an area
characterized by mlcapes of 200-300j/kg. Difficult to see anything
more than an isolated pop required for this activity, and do not
plan on carrying thunder.

Northern lower will generally be on the cloudy side. Eastern upper
will start that way, but become mostly sunny by mid-afternoon. Max
temps upper 70s to lower 80s.

Tonight...a few light showers could hang around far southern
sections this evening. Anything further convective bubbliness
should evolve further south overnight, as cool/dry ne low-level
flow continues. The sw half of the forecast area will stay
relatively cloudy, with partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions
to the ne. Min temps in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

...Seasonable then turning warmer once again...

A somewhat convoluted pattern setting up over the next few days.
This will be a result of a low amplitude trough setting up across
the region while surface high pressure is centered off to our north. least one if not two vorticity centers move through
the flow. Models are having a difficult time deciding just how far
north these features track (as well as the timing). Will go ahead
and introduce low chance pops across southeast counties for Friday
night into Saturday as confidence is only in the fair range. One
thing that looks certain is a slight cool down on temps through
Saturday...with readings right around late July thirty year
averages. The trough will eventually be shunted northeast by a ridge
building across the center portion of the country. This should occur
during the late Sunday into Monday time frame. A wave caught up in
the flow will bring chances for much needed showers and storms
Tuesday into Wednesday (but unfortunately it doesn`t look like a big
rain maker at this point). Temperatures should increase to a few
degrees above average for the first few days of August.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 647 AM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

VFR. Some showers, mainly this morning.

Relatively narrow band of showers occurring this morning in the
Straits region and far northern lower MI. This is falling out of a
mid-cloud deck, and conditions are solidly VFR. A cold front
moving just south of the state was contributing to this activity.
It is expected to slowly settle southward and diminish, as
cooler/drier low-level air enters the region from the north. Still
a risk of showers this afternoon and evening, though mainly south
of TVC and east of MBL.

North winds will approach 10kt today.


Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Nw to n winds today, will give way to n to ne winds tonight and
Friday, as high pressure moves slowly east across southern Canada.
Tonight will be a bit breezier, especially on northern Lake MI,
but winds/waves are expected to remain below advisory criteria.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Sullivan
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