Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 231711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
111 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Issued at 1037 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Strengthening short wave continues to drop SE out of South Central
Canada toward the arrowhead of Minnesota late this morning.
Surface reflection has pushed east into Western Wisconsin. Area of
rain showers continues to develop ahead of the upper level wave
and NE of the surface low impacting Western Upper
Michgian and far Northern Wisconsin. Some weak returns have
entered Eastern Upper Michigan as mid levels begin to moisten...
but little in the way of actual precip has actually reached the
ground across this area so far. Upstream precip is likely
receiving some lake contribution with delta T`s currently around
11-12 C.

The upper wave will continue to slide SE into Upper Michigan this
afternoon and thru Lower Michigan this evening. Surface low will
gradually deepen as it drops SE thru Wisconsin this afternoon and
thru Southern Lower Michigan this evening. Deep moisture will
spread into our CWA from NW thru SE this afternoon and evening...
produce scattered rain shower across our area. Some lake
enhancement is expected...with more pure lake effect rain showers
developing tonight thanks to CAA and NW flow in the wake of the
wave and surface system. Thus...expect increasing clouds as we
head into the afternoon...with increasing chances of rain showers.
Temps will be a bit more mild this afternoon ahead of the wave...
ranging from around 50 in Eastern Upper Michigan to around 60 near
Saginaw Bay.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

High impact weather potential: none.

High pressure is over the deep south, extending ridging into the
western Great Lakes and on into central Canada. Skies are partly
cloudy north of M-32, mostly clear south. Upstream, an area of
much colder cloud tops and associated rain is advancing ese-ward
from southern Manitoba and northern MN. This is associated with a
fast-moving shortwave that will cruise overhead early this
evening. Precip trends are the main concern.

Today...will have a window at the start of the morning to see
some sunshine, especially from M-72 south. However, mid/high
clouds will rapidly invade from the nw as we move thru the
day, thickening initially north of M-32. Nam is very much
inclined to minor out precip as this system moves in. To some
degree this makes sense, as the regional 850mb temperature
gradient is somewhat weaker here, resulting in less of an fgen
response. But it is a sharp increase in dpva forcing that arrives
this afternoon, and am inclined to regard the Nam as being
curiously underdone. Some sprinkles/weak showers could reach
eastern upper MI toward midday. Much better pops in order after
18z/2pm, with the highest over far northern lower. Will keep pops
in the sct category for now.

High temps today will range from around 50f in eastern upper, to
around 60f near Gladwin/Standish.

Tonight...shortwave quickly races east of the region, with a weak
surface reflection exiting southern lower MI. Synoptically-forced
showers will quickly exit ne lower MI by late evening. Nw to nnw
1000-850mb winds will return cooler air to the region, with 850mb
temps tumbling back to the -3 to -5c range by morning. Inversions
heights will also rise toward 6k ft by dawn. That will return the
threat of lake effect showers to parts of far western Chippewa, and
especially to nw lower MI. Partial clearing is expected overnight in
ne lower MI (especially south of Rogers/APN). Min temps will be
mainly in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Monday through Tuesday night...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/Expected evolution: Expansive area of low pressure
and associated upper-level troughing is now centered over Maine/
Quebec early this morning. Weak ridging aloft gradually attempts to
make its way toward northward Michigan tonight; however, becomes
dampened before really reaching the area as a shortwave, currently
over the Pac NW, glides up and over the ridge and moves into the
region on Sunday, filtering in cooler air beyond its exit . The next
feature of note beyond the weekend is a a wave that exits the
Intermountain West by the middle of next week with cyclogenesis
ongoing, perhaps impacting portions of northern Michigan by

Monday - Monday night: Just enough cool air overhead should continue
the threat for scattered light lake effect rain showers across the
typical NW flow lake belts of northwest Lower/eastern Upper. A lack
of any appreciable moisture and synoptic forcing should limit the
overall coverage and intensity of showers, but as seen just this
past week, the lakes are prime and don`t take much cool air atop
them to kick of lake processes. Shower chances begin to wane late
Monday into Monday night as high pressure builds overhead with
partly cloudy skies expected to prevail. High temps ranging from the
mid-40s north to the low 50s south and east. Lows in the 30s.

Tuesday - Tuesday night: Surface high pressure settles overhead, in
theory keeping northern Michigan precip-free despite lingering H8
air bottoming out around -4 C. Will continue the inherited dry
forecast as it`s hard go against with such paltry moisture fields.
Partly cloudy skies will be the rule, most prevalent near Lake
Michigan/Superior with more sun as you head east of I-75.
Temperature trends Tuesday night are a bit of a challenge with
higher level clouds perhaps spreading in from the west as an area of
low pressure develops to our southwest (mentioned below), but will
hedge toward a cooler solution away from the big lakes...thus have
bumped min temps down a couple degrees below guidance in those areas.

Extended (Wednesday through Saturday)...

The focus for the extended period continues to revolve around an
area of developing low pressure progged to move from the Rockies
eastward toward the mid-Mississippi Valley, bringing another threat
for precip to portions of northern MI late Wednesday - Thursday with
nearly all global runs and ensemble members spreading an area of
rain across the area. Interestingly, Wednesday night, guidance
suggests temperatures in the lowest 1000-1500` of roughly 33-35 deg
and temps through the remainder of the column below freezing for
locations in eastern Upper and the highest elevations of northern
Lower. Suppose there could be some wet snowflakes that mix, based on
precip intensity, across those locations. At this point, have only
included a chance of a rain/snow mix Wed night for those north of
the bridge as there`s rather low confidence being an early fall
system 4+ days away. Additional precip chances continue through the
remainder of the period, both of the lake effect rain shower and
synoptic system varieties.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Low VFR/MVFR cigs will gradually develop from NW to SE across
Northern Lower Michigan this afternoon and tonight as a potent
short wave and surface response slides thru Michigan. Scattered
rain showers will develop in response to increasing lift and
moisture associated with this wave. Modest over-lake instability
will lend some support to precip production. Precipitation will
evolve into a more pure lake effect rain shower scenario later
tonight into Monday thanks to CAA in the wake of the departing
wave. Light winds this afternoon will shift to the NW later this
afternoon and evening and will begin to strengthen to around 10
kts behind the wave...with higher gusts expected by Monday


Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Weak west to northwest winds will be seen today, around distant
high pressure in the deep south. Late today an area of weak low
pressure will move toward far southern lower MI. This low will
intensity tonight as it moves off to the east, resulting in
stronger nw-erly winds tonight into Monday. Small craft advisories
could well be needed for some northern MI waters, but it is a
little early to issue those yet.




LONG TERM...Gillen
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