Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 201938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
338 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

...Another Warm Night Followed by Above Normal Day ...

High Impact Weather Potential...Elevated Fire Danger with Warm
temperatures and gusty winds this afternoon, and Saturday

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Models suggesting that the current sfc
high that is over the Mid-Atlantic states, will continue there for
another day. With the high over the same area for the next 24
hours, will expect that the return flow will continue over
Michigan keeping the heat going for another day, and beginning to
moisten the low levels as the moisture moves north out of the Gulf
of Mexico. This should raise the minimum RH values for Saturday
afternoon, however, with the temperatures still around 75F and the
winds expected to be gusty Saturday afternoon, will expect that
elevated fire danger will still be needed for Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...One thing that is a bit bothersome
about the forecast is that the mixing that the models progged in
the soundings this morning has not turned out, especially near the
Lake Michigan shore where the winds have stayed sustained below 10
knots, and hardly a gust. This has then shown up in the dewpoint
and RH fields with some areas not falling as much as progged this
morning. So will ease back a bit on the mixing for Saturday, and
will expect higher RH values for the afternoon. However, most of
the area will still see consistent wind gusts over 15 mph, and
temperatures around 75F, so will expect to have some elevated
fire danger for Saturday.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A large scale upper trough in the central plains Saturday night,
will slide into the western great Lakes and southern plains Sunday,
before the upper flow splits Sunday into Sunday night. The srn
branch closes off while the nrn stream continues eastward into our
neck of the woods Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening, along with
the system`s cold front. Rain chances are pretty good, with hints of
upper divergence in right entrance region of a 100+kt upper jet,
DPVA and low level convergence with PWATS increasing to 1.50".
Thunder likely no, as steeper lapse rates will be well out ahead of
the better forcing, and with no CAPE expected. Stronger shortwave
energy dives into the backside of the nrn branch and carves out
sharper troughing. Low pressure develops along the U.S. Canadian
border and tracks into the nrn Great Lakes Monday, along with it`s
cold front. The deeper moisture and stronger forcing will be with
the srn branch, which may be too far east of us, while this next
cold front would be moving into our atmosphere which may
subsequently be too dried out. Thus, precipitation chances look
rather small. Temperatures will remain warm Sunday ahead of the
initial cold front in the mid 60s to lower 70s, cooling off to the
upper 50s to lower 60s Monday, which is still above normal.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

High impact weather potential: None.

Depending on the exact placement of the srn branch`s deeper moisture
and forcing and possible phasing with our nrn branch (which will be
closing off overhead), will play a big role in our weather starting
Monday night. If too far east, chances for synoptic rain will be
less in our drier air mass, despite the nrn branch closing off
directly over lower Michigan (which would lead to potential
diurnally driven showers underneath a cold pool/steep lapse rates
aloft). Either way, we are still looking for lake effect showers. H8
temps fall to 0C to as cold as -4C late Monday night into Wednesday
with more than sufficient overlake instability. Maybe even some
snowflakes for the higher terrain of nrn lower? Warming/moderation
ensues Thursday, ahead of the next expected front approaching us on
Thursday. High temperatures will gradually fall to near normal over
this time, in the upper 40s to lower 50s, generally speaking.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Expecting VFR CIGs and VSBYs as high pressure remains over the
region for the next 24 hours. Southwest flow will remain over the
region until the next system moves in (expected Sunday morning).
The one thing of note will be the low level wind shear. With the
warm sw flow, especially aloft, has been setting up stable
condition over the land, mainly at night, but some coastal sites
such as MBL and TVC have been having stable conditions through
most of the day. Looking at the model soundings, the inversion,
at these sites, is still expecting to continue through most of the
day, overnight tonight, and probably into the day on Saturday.


Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Tonight through Sunday...High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic
States will continue to produce a strong pressure gradient over
Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay tonight. However, little mixing
over the lakes are expected as the temperatures above the surface
are warmer than the lake temperatures. So will expect that
tonight some of the gusts will remain a little lower overnight,
before creeping up again on Saturday. However, Saturday night, the
winds will probably increase some as the gradient tightens as the
next cold front moves towards the Upper Great Lakes. The winds
will diminish on Sunday as the front moves through, and the
gradient slackens.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345-347-
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-


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