Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 210753
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
253 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

...Drier and colder...

High Impact Weather Potential...Ongoing hydro issues across lower
Michigan.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Surface low pressure continues to
advance up into Ontario/Quebec with attending sharp cold front
trailing southwestward and just about to clear SE lower Michigan
as of 06Z. Strongest mid level deformation/F-gen processes and
ongoing axis of precip trails behind the surface front...running
from Texas...up through the Midwest then crosses central/southern
lower Michigan. Still raining across the SE counties...although
precip axis should finally shift out of those counties around
daybreak. Temperatures have fallen to at or below freezing back
across the rest of the CWA. Trailing shallow moisture and flow off
the lakes has managed to produce some -FZDZ and/or light snow
showers during the overnight hours...especially in the higher
terrain.

Upstream...Strong high pressure is building across the
central/northern plains this morning along with a colder/much
drier airmass that is now edging into the western Great Lakes.
Surface high...cold/dry air will build through the state
today/tonight bringing a quieter stretch of weather.

Primary Forecast Concerns...ongoing areal and river flooding.

Will probably have to keep some PoPs in the forecast very early
on as back edge of post frontal precip axis slips out of the SE
counties AND we get some nuisance shallow lake induced precip in
the snowbelt areas. But incoming strong high pressure/subsidence
and dry air will eventually win out and bring a diminishing trend
to cloud cover as we go through day. Surface temps will continue
to fall off heading into the morning hours. And with continuing
cold advection through the day...don`t expect they will move
upward very much even with increasing sun. Clearing skies heading
into tonight along with diminishing winds will result in a rather
cold night. We may get some increasing mid and high cloud cover
trying to sneak into the southern counties overnight. but single
digit to the teens low temperatures should be easily attainable.

Hydro concerns. Various rivers/streams continue to rise especially
in the SE part of the CWA where highest rainfall amounts have
occurred. River flood warnings will of course remain in effect for
the next few days and there may be a few more added. Ongoing
flood warning for the SE counties expires at 1415Z this morning
which is probably a bit premature given the reported localized
flooding/standing water issues south of the M-55 corridor.
Temperatures down that way will fall to at or below freezing this
morning which may help alleviate flooding issues. But for
now...plan to extend the flood warning out at least through the
day and allow day shift to gather reports from down that way.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

...Beginning Drier Weather until Thursday night...

High Impact Weather Potential...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure drives moisture out of the
Upper Great Lakes during the morning. The high then moves across the
Upper Great Lakes Wednesday night, and then onto the east on
Thursday. By 00z/Fri, the next system begins to knock on the door
and moves into northern Michigan between 09z/Fri and 12z/Fri. It
looks like there could be some mixed precipitation along M-55 during
that time, with the chance of snow elsewhere. 850 mb temperatures go
above freezing along M-55 and the ECMWF suggests as far north as
M-72.

Primary Forecast concerns...Most of the time will be rather quiet as
the high moves through the Upper Great Lakes and northern Michigan.
The questions arise with the Thursday night/Friday morning forecast
as the warm air moves north. A couple of things to think about...if
the winds are due south like the GFS and ECMWF show, then the sfc
warmth will move north with the 850 warmth, so we may not get much
in the way of mixed precipitation. The SREF, however, is showing a
WSW wind, which is almost a neutral/cold advection, and would bring
the likelihood of snow along M-55. Think will continue the forecast
since it looks more of the middle of the road.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

...A Brief Cool off, then Gradually Warming for the Weekend...

Extended (Friday through Monday)...After the front moves through on
Friday morning, high pressure builds into the forecast area and
dries thing out through Saturday afternoon. Saturday evening a
strong wave moves out of the Central Plains, and into lower Michigan
overnight. The GFS has a 988mb low, while the ECMWF has a 1005mb
low. Both models has roughly the same track, but the strength of the
storm will wrap more warm air on the GFS solution while the ECMWF
would have more snow. Sunday looks like it will be a day where the
afternoon may dry out, but the Sunday night definitely does and into
Monday afternoon. Another quick storm moves through the region late
Monday afternoon and night.

Temperatures through days 4-7 look to be in the lower to mid 30s in
E Upper each day, while N lower temperatures range from the mid 30s
to the lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Back edge of the widespread rain will exit NE Lower Michigan
overnight as a cold front pushes east of our region. Residual MVFR
conditions overnight and will eventually return to VFR on
Wednesday as high pressure and drier low level air build into the
region. NW winds will strengthen to 10 to 20 kts with some higher
gusts expected.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MR



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