Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 120741
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
341 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues today, with highs reaching the mid to
  upper 60s. Well above average temperatures will continue through
  Wednesday.

- Dry conditions into Tuesday, with just a limited chance for a
  late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

- Rain chances increasing Thursday into Friday as a low pressure
  system tracks across the area. Potential exists for a few
  thunderstorms during this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A nocturnal increase low level southwest flow within the background
lower amplitude upper level ridging offering a noted period of warm
air advection early this morning. This advective process captures an
added boost from daytime heating as skies remain partly to mostly
sunny, effectively lifting 850 mb temperatures a solid 8-9 degrees
from readings noted yesterday. Thermal ridge anchors locally this
afternoon, translating into an inbound profile that resides a good
20 degrees above average. Highs of mid to upper 60s. Modest height
falls streaming across the northern great lakes will ease a weak
frontal boundary into the lower peninsula tonight. Simply a wind
shift and some increase in high based cloud noted at this stage
given presence of deep layer stability with limited low level
moisture quality. Lows tonight in the 40s.

Frontal boundary sags into the local area Wednesday, before stalling
into Wednesday night as large scale flow briefly aligns parallel to
the feature. Daytime heating projected to effectively offset any
degree of boundary layer cooling offered by this fropa, again
leading to highs mainly low to mid 60s. Winds will veer to
northeasterly into the afternoon, drawing much cooler lake modified
air inland with time. Depending on the timing, this may cap highs in
the 50s over the thumb region and bring a more aggressive cooling
trend from northwest to southeast region wide into the evening.
Frontal zone may prove a focus for light shower production as early
as late Wednesday and Wed night should the initial stages of
emerging northward moisture transport arrive coincident with
embedded shortwave energy. Mixed signal yet on prospective
precipitation chances and outgoing forecast will simply maintain a
low end mention highlighting the I-69 corridor southward.

Greater rainfall potential centered Thursday (mainly afternoon) and
Thursday night. Deep layer southwest flow fixated downstream of a
low pressure system ejecting across the central plains will
establish a broad corridor of moist isentropic ascent. This process
will continue to engage the elevated frontal slope anchored locally,
supporting periodic rainfall production with an element of elevated
thunder given the high magnitude theta-e advection. A peak in mid
level dynamics and overall convergence tied to encroaching mid level
wave, surface low and favorable upper jet support occurs late
Thursday night, offering the main window for a higher intensity
period of convective showers and elevated thunderstorms. System
trajectory will dictate whether a brief northward advance of the
warm sector can make inroads over southern areas and offer some
destabilization within the boundary layer for the surface wave and
trailing cold front to act on Friday morning.

Cloudy and cooler conditions with some lingering showers possible
Friday as wraparound moisture remains under ongoing cold air
advection. Inbound airmass stays on the warm side of average through
Saturday given lack of meaningful height falls. A more noteworthy
southward surge of lower mid level heights arrive Sunday, leading to
a period of high amplitude troughing through early next week.
Potential for showers with the attendant cold front Sunday, with any
trailing pv features rotating through the mean trough bringing a
shot for snow Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Increasing southwest flow today, but there is very mild air
streaming in which will lead to increased stability over the cooler
waters of Lake Huron, Lake St. Clair, and western Lake
Erie. Expecting wind gusts topping out in the 20-25 knot range,
and highest gusts mainly along the shoreline areas.

A weak, dry cold front looks to swinging through Tuesday night, with
modest northwest winds following for Wednesday. Low pressure
tracking through the northern Ohio Valley in the Thursday-Friday
time frame will bring rain showers to southern Lake Huron and
locations south. Moderate easterly winds (~25 knots) are expected to
develop over Lake Huron as high pressure translates east through
Ontario/Quebec during the same period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024

AVIATION...

An amplyfying upper level ridge will be responsible for strongly
anticyclonic flow trajectories and a brisk northwest gradient wind. A
near surface inversion is trying to develop in response to nocturnal
cooling leading to nonconvective LLWS. Given the well mixed, dry
near surface conditions from this past afternoon did maintain a
mention of hz. Full insolation will allow for a well mixed planetary
boundary layer by the late morning Tuesday, leading to southwest
winds of 12 to 25 knots.

For DTW...LLWS tonight. Low confidence in hz at daybreak. 230 winds
Tuesday of 12 to 25 knots.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....CB


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