Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
FXUS63 KDTX 221119
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
719 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016
Surface high pressure in place over the central Great Lakes will
maintain quiet aviation weather at the terminals through the period.
The last of the northwesterly cyclonic flow aloft is serving as a
conduit, advecting varying amounts of midcloud southeastward over
the terminals. An area of midlevel moisture has led to ceilings over
central Michigan. Expecting this moisture to remain trapped below a
lowering inversion, which could result in a fairly robust cumulus
response at 3 to 4 kft agl near Saginaw Bay. Otherwise, weak winds
and plenty of sunshine.
//DTW Threshold Probabilities...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon AUG 22 2016
Quiet and seasonable weather through mid week. Large surface high
pressure centered over the Ohio Valley early this morning will slowly
slide to the east tonight and off the East Coast Wednesday. In the
meantime dry and relatively cool airmass today with 850mb temps in
the single digits will provide lots of sunshine with a scattering of
afternoon cu. Even with full late August sun, mixing with 850mb
temps in the single digits will yield mainly mid to upper 70s with
light westerly winds. Return flow around departing high pressure
will bring a gradual increase in temps and humidity through
Wednesday. The next system to effect the area will be a warm front
that will lift through the area Wednesday night. Models for the
most part hold off most precipitation til then, however, some shower
and thunderstorm activity could effect the far western border and
Saginaw Valley late Wednesday afternoon and evening where these
locations will be close to sharp gradient in deeper moisture. Band
of higher theta-e along warm front will bring better chances for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night. Activity Thursday will
be associated with cold frontal passage. Most upper level support
will be with the warm front leaving just mainly surface convergence
with the front along with peak daytime heating as models bring fropa
18z-00z Thursday afternoon. High pressure will bring basically dry
conditions and seasonable temps Friday through the Weekend with next
chance of rain Sunday night and Monday.
Surface high pressure in place over the central Great Lakes today
will result in very quiet marine conditions over the area waters.
The center of surface high pressure will then drift east of the Ohio
River Valley by tonight leading to increasing southwest return flow.
Southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots are expected by late tonight over
central Lake Huron including Saginaw Bay. Winds over the open waters
on Tuesday are expected to increase into the 20 to 25 knot range.
The southwest winds will continue on Wednesday in advance of an
approaching trough and cold front. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will increase Wednesday night.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
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