Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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597 FXUS63 KDTX 021808 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 208 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures continue through the next 7+ days. - Showers and a few thunderstorms expected tonight with greater coverage and intensity Friday afternoon, although severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. - Low confidence forecast in place through the weekend regarding additional showers, then clearing high pressure arrives Sunday night into Monday. - A large low pressure system lifts into the High Plains Tuesday and Wednesday lending renewed storm chances, locally. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will persist throughout the afternoon and evening hours with an amplifying ridge overhead and anticyclonic trajectories. Any lake breeze response will remain muted with a prevailing southeast wind direction this afternoon already in advance of the mesoscale forcing. A deep potential vorticity lobe will pivot across northern Minnesota this evening and tonight driving a narrowing axis meridional moisture transport across Southeast Michigan Friday. Precipitation chances begin to increase after 09Z Friday as southern stream/mississippi River Valley moisture does lift northward and streamlines immediately in advance of the northern tier trough. Two specific time windows of concern at the Detroit terminals, a quick chance for elevated shower activity between 09-11Z and the potential for some shower/tstorms developing along a weak cold front Friday afternoon. Confidence in coverage and occurrence is lower Friday afternoon and did account by a Prob30. For DTW/D21 Convection...Shower activity is expected to lift northward out of northern Ohio between 09-11Z Friday with a low potential for thunderstorms. Additional shower activity with thunderstorms will develop over portions of Southeast Michigan after 19Z. Low confidence in occurrence at Metro as activity could remain north and west. Strong to severe thunderstorms are not anticipated Friday. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for thunderstorms tonight and Friday && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 424 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 DISCUSSION... Morning MSAS MSLP data shows a broadening region of high pressure across the Upper Midwest while GOES vapor imagery reveals a well formed circulation along the central Ontario/Quebec border. Lower Michigan will remain positioned between these two systems, at least through the morning hours. Given the more diffuse pressure gradient, weaker winds eventually veer toward the northeast, before taking on a southeasterly trajectory this afternoon as the ridge migrates northeastward and breaks down. Today`s flow scheme offers more seasonable conditions attributed to the advection of cooler lake- modified air. The coldest readings will be found immediately downwind of the shorelines where temperatures peak in the 60s. Highs moderate in the low-mid 70F range across the rest of the forecast area with southwest extent. Inbound shortwave troughing tilts negatively and tracks into the Upper Midwest today with an active LLJ. Latest NWP solutions have fallen into better agreement regarding dry PoPs for most of Southeast Michigan during the daylight period. More formidable ambient dryness provided by the neighboring anticyclonic gyre is now reflected in forecast soundings, marked by a higher temperature through the warm nose preceding the surface front and better column uniformity of dry southwest flow. PWATs continue to trend lower as a result. Local probabilistic data lends confidence that any showers that could develop prior to 00Z should remain along the western fringe of the forecast area. Did adjust PoPs to restrict Slight Chance mentions west of US-23. Should note that the 02.12Z FV3 and 02.04Z HRRR are the two CAM outliers since both suggest showers developing earlier and surviving past the demarcated PoP boundary. Chance for showers and some sub-severe storms increases from west to east overnight. Lack of instability limits the coverage of any stronger storms. Showers will be on-going Friday morning as dewpoints creep up with the arrival of the surface warm front arrives. There are still points of uncertainty wrt the triple point location midday which affects coverage and strength of convective activity. Regardless, about 250-750 J/kg of MLCAPE should build as the cold/occluded front works in with some indications of a brief window for SBCAPE development. This would mainly induce a more robust flare-up during the afternoon/evening period, but a weakening trend in shear parameters limit severity. In spite of cloud cover, temperatures should still top out in the upper 70s for most areas. Most of the convective activity should depart into Ontario by midnight, but low- level omega signal indicates some lingering ascent and shower activity with moist easterly feed. Low level moisture remains trapped beneath an inversion with weak gradient wind Saturday. This supports continued stratus and some sprinkles with perturbed mid-level flow. The abnormal warmth persists through the weekend while an upper level trough approaches Sunday warranting continued low-end PoPs. This pushes a cold front into the region before it stalls just south of the state line Sunday night. High pressure quickly crosses the Great Lakes Monday offering the first truly dry day before the low tracks into the High Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. The aforementioned front then lifts northward as a warm front lending renewed rain/storm chances midweek with little evidence of any significant cool-down. MARINE... Modest wind speed from the northwest expected through early today as high pressure builds into the region. Winds establish an easterly component late today as the high exits the region. A low pressure system is forecast to track across the northern great lakes Friday. This will draw a cold front through lower Michigan, bringing increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds holding from the southeast at less than 20 knots in advance of this front Friday. HYDROLOGY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive tonight with varying degrees of coverage through Friday. A cold front moves through Lower Michigan Friday afternoon/evening which may produce a few robust thunderstorms containing heavier downpours. Some areas could see in excess of a half inch of rainfall by Friday night. No major flood concerns are expected at this time. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...KGK MARINE.......MR HYDROLOGY....KGK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.