Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
FXUS63 KDTX 170453
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1153 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017
Favorable late February aviation conditions will be in place for
the rest of tonight through Friday night. VFR in mixed mid and high
clouds/mostly above 5000 ft will be accompanied by light southeast
wind during the night. Similar conditions will then continue through
the day as low pressure over the Plains sends the surface warm front
into the Great Lakes. Based on observations along the front during
the evening, expect VFR will continue as the boundary enters Lower
Michigan during the afternoon and as the warm sector of the
system moves in Friday night.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
Issued at 243 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017
Upper heights will build steadily through Friday as mean upper
trough over the northeast CONUS shifts east as deep low pressure
system lifts into the Canadian maritime. The progression of the
upper trough will allow upper ridging to translate eastward over the
area during the next 24-36 hours. This will allow for moderating
conditions on Friday after another cool start early Friday morning.
Expect lows to range generally in the 20s with perhaps a few teens
mixed in from the Saginaw Valley into the Thumb. Southeast flow will
then veer to south on Friday as a warm front lifts north into the
area coincident with the building upper ridge. This will lead to
some north to south disparity in temperatures with locations near
the Michigan and Ohio state line reaching 50 degrees while lower 40s
hold sway over the northern forecast area. Would not be too surprised
to see a 50 degree reading at Detroit as well.
While the upper ridge flattens into a more zonal flow pattern into
Saturday as separate northern and southern stream waves brush by
area in split flow pattern, very mild conditions will prevail. ECM
MOS continues to lead the way on Saturday with temperatures into the
lower 60s metro Detroit south, GFS MOS middle 50s and 12z NAM MOS
right at 60. All temperatures taper back 5 to 10 degrees north and
northeast into the Thumb. Do not plan on any changes at this time
with MaxT grid pretty close to MET MOS guidance ranging from 60
south to 50 far northern forecast area.
With the northern and southern streams split, do not expect any
precipitation as the aforementioned shortwave traverse both north and
south of the central Great Lakes.
With the upper level ridge axis over the Great Lakes on Saturday
morning southwest flow will allow 850 mb temps approaching 10 C over
SE Michigan. Under limited cloud cover, high temperatures on
Saturday could approach record values in the mid to upper 50s at
Saginaw and Flint and near 60 at Detroit. A weak cold frontal
passage on Saturday night will usher in slightly cooler air mass on
Sunday but sunny skies will allow diurnal warming with highs
remaining well above average in the 50s over much of SE Michigan.
Ridging then builds again over Michigan on Monday with increasing
southerly flow ahead of an approaching low pressure system. While
increasing cloud cover might limit diurnal warming high temps could
again approach near record values across SE Michigan with warm air
advection in place. The next chance for rain returns early next week
as low pressure passes to the north of the Great Lakes region.
A ridge of high pressure sliding over the area will bring very light
winds tonight. Modest southerly flow will then develop Friday and
continue through Saturday as broad low pressure lifts through the
Northern Plains and Central Canada, turning west in the evening. The
strongest winds will be located over Lake Huron, with gusts reaching
just over 20 knots Friday from the south, and 20 to 25 knots on
Saturday from the west.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
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