Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 271704

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
104 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016


While the gradual trend over the next 4-6 hours will be for ceilings
lifting from IFR to MVFR, pocket of -dz/br within moisture pooling
along trailing surface trough will delay the process to some degree
during the afternoon and bring some limited vsbys as well.

Otherwise, expect ceilings to lift to MVFR and then lower VFR later
this evening with lower clouds scattering out within drier northwest
in subsidence region in wake of exiting shortwave/low pressure late

Northwest winds in wake of surface trough will gusts 15-20 knots for
a time this afternoon within best boundary layer mixing. Winds will
become light/variable overnight and back to SSW Friday morning, but
remain 10 knots or less in general.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet through this evening.


Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu OCT 27 2016


Compact shortwave over northern Lower Michigan tracking off to the
East. Meanwhile, Upper level wave along the southern
Manitoba/Ontario border early this morning, tracking southeast and
reaching Lake Huron by this evening. Southeast Michigan will be
influenced by the mid level dry slot (700 mb dew pt depressions of
10 to 20 C) working into the State this morning. As of 7z, low
pressure located along the southern Michigan border, and will be
exiting the state around 12z, taking most of the measurable
precipitation with it. There is actually a good deal of mild air
on the backside of the low (around 50 degrees in Chicago), and
Detroit area and points south will likely hit 50 degrees or
slightly better (almost there already), even with low clouds
trapped underneath dry slot. Across the far north, temps probably
won`t get out of the lower 40s with northerly winds developing.
Main surge of cold advection does not occur until late day, with
850 mb temps falling to -5 C, but could be devoid of ice nuclei
(per nam soundings) as saturation fails to reach -10 C isotherm.
Either way, 850 mb temps then quickly warming overnight as
subsidence and pronounced upper level ridging builds into Lower
Michigan promoting clearing (outside of warm advection high
clouds toward morning).

Excellent warm advection pattern Friday into Saturday, with 850 mb
temps pushing into the low to mid teens by Saturday Morning ahead of
a cold front. Strong Upper level Jet forcing still looks to reside
just north of the Northern Great Lakes, and thus front will likely
be mainly dry as it comes through with the limited moisture and lack
of upper level support. Any light rain showers/sprinkles will have
to be generated down low with the low level convergence, and at this
point the prospects for measurable rainfall looks very low, as nam
likely overzealous with the low level moisture/qpf noise.

Temperatures look to be well into the 60s on Saturday, and still
reasonable shot at 70 degrees for Detroit Metro area depending on
the timing of the front and low clouds.

Not a great southward push to the front over the Weekend, and with
Upper Level Energy off the California coast progged to move into the
area Saturday Night, good chance the low level front will get going
and generate showers, especially near the southern Michigan border
into Sunday Morning...per 00z Euro. Clouds and cold advection
through the day on Sunday holding maxes in the low to mid 50s.


Strong east to northeast winds north of low pressure tracking across
Lake Erie will maintain gusts to near gales across portions of Lake
Huron this morning.  The persistent onshore flow will maintain large
wave action over Lake Huron, leading to extended small craft
conditions across the nearshore waters.  Winds and waves will
diminish late today and tonight as high pressure works across the
region.  Southerly flow then quickly ramps up on Friday, peaking
late Friday into Friday night.  The potential exists for gusts to
reach gale force during this time, prompting the issuance of a gale
watch central portions of Lake Huron.


Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening FOR LHZ421-422-

     Gale Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night FOR LHZ362-

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.



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