Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 131951 CCA
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
251 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Downstream ridge amplification over the Great Lakes and energy
pivoting across central Canada will tighten the resident mass
gradient and support a stationary upper jet well into the weekend.
Plenty of cirrus will accompany this fast upper flow leading to
filtered sunshine through Sunday. Strong surface high over the area
tonight will support decoupling, particularly for clear sky areas on
the northern fringe of the cirrus shield. Thus, the Saginaw Valley
and northern Thumb may dip into the upper single digits with teens
to low 20s elsewhere. Eastward migration of strongly confluent upper
flow will force the surface high east and support an emergence of
warm return flow on Saturday. Thus, temps will moderate toward 30
degrees. With no airmass exchange anticipated under stagnant upper
air conditions, Sunday will essentially be a repeat of Saturday.
Higher potential for a few hours of unfiltered sun early, but clouds
move back in by aftn as system ejects out of the SW.

Low pressure over Texas/Oklahoma on Monday will bring widespread
precipitation to Michigan as it crosses the Great Lakes region early
next week. Potential for a wintry mix exists as precipitation first
enters the region on Monday with cold air remaining near the
surface. However, any initial precipitation should remain light
before southerly flow brings a stronger push of moisture and warmer
temperatures Monday night changing any wintry precipitation to rain.
As the low tracks to the west of Southeast Michigan on Tuesday,
southerly flow will boost temperatures well into the 40s, possibly
near 50, with rain across all of Southeast Michigan. A chance for
showers might linger some into Wednesday with colder air aloft and a
brief return to westerly flow as the low pressure exits the Great
Lakes region. Ridging then builds over much of the Eastern US late
next week bringing drier conditions and unseasonably mild
temperatures to Michigan.

&&

.MARINE...

Northwest winds will continue to diminish this afternoon and become
light and variable area-wide by this evening as high pressure builds
into the region. This high will slide off to the east, allowing for
a modest increase in southwest winds on Saturday, topping out around
20 knots as a weak front moves through Lake Huron. Light winds will
return on Sunday and then linger into Monday as milder air begins to
edge north into the central Great Lakes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

AVIATION...

With a large area of high pressure building into the area, expect
generally VFR conditions with just a FEW-SCT stratus this afternoon
near 2500 feet. Otherwise, CIGS will thicken and lower closer to
10kft late tonight -vs- 20kft this afternoon. Winds under 10 knots
will veer from N to NE with approach of the high and then become
light/variable tonight.

For DTW...FEW-SCT 2500 stratus possible this afternoon, otherwise
just thickening/lowering mid/upper clouds within subtropical plume
funneling east into the area. Period of ~7 knot NE flow afternoon
into early evening, then light/variable later tonight.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* None.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC/JD
MARINE.......DG
AVIATION.....DG


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