Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 260740
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
340 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE EXITED THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.  THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...THERE HAS BEEN AREAS
OF PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LINGERING DRIZZLE AND OVERCAST SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO HANG TODAY WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY ENDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AROUND 18Z OR SO.
NORTHEAST FLOW THEN KICKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 2C TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THEN
WORK IN OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW WITH SOME MODELS TAKING THE CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
MI/OH BORDER WHILE OTHERS ARE STAYING MORE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE AREA BRINGING QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS THEN ARE ADVERTISING A COMPACT LOW PUSHING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON AS NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LEADS TO BUILDING WAVES. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS LOW EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
NEAR GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...WILL FORGO A WARNING AS THE COVERAGE AND
TIME WINDOW FOR SUCH MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SMALL.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PERSIST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
LEAD IN AN EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
IFR/LOW MVFR CEILING...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE.  THIS MOISTURE WILL HOLD FIRM
THROUGH THE DAY...SIMPLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CEILING HEIGHT DURING
THIS TIME.

FOR DTW...RAPID REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEYOND 06Z. BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH MID MORNING.  SOLID INCREASE IN LOW STRATUS
/IFR-LOW MVFR/ DURING THIS TIME.  IMMEDIATE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...VEERING TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET PRIOR TO 12Z...HIGH THEREAFTER
  ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LHZ442-443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
     441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......DG
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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