Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
FXUS63 KDTX 231925
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
325 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016
Compact strong dynamical wave currently centered over east central
Wisconsin will continue its fast path southeastward across Michigan
this evening and early night. Very strong lift occurring north of
the track however moisture is quite limited with very dry air in the
lower and mid levels. Decent amount of radar returns is seen but
amount reaching ground is quite light and limited. Expect the best
chance for measurable rainfall to occur this evening and early
tonight along and north of the surface low track which looks to go
from Milwaukee to lansing to Detroit. Lows will be slightly on the
mild side tonight in the lower 40s as more seasonable airmass won`t
start advecting in til morning behind departing surface low. High
pressure behind the departing wave will bring clearing trend Monday
starting from far southern counties to the Thumb region by evening.
High pressure will continue in control through Wednesday morning
with a fair amount of clear skies and seasonable
Low pressure traversing east from the Central Plains into Michigan
will bring the likely chance for precipitation Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday. While off to a projected chilly start Wednesday
morning with lows in the lower 30s, mainly north of I-69,
precipitation is not expected to move in until temperatures rise
into the mid to upper 40s, keeping everything as rain. Low pressure
will move over Lake Ontario Thursday into Friday. Precipitation
chances will be renewed Friday and into the weekend as a second low
from the North Central Plains travels east, dragging along with it a
cold front which will bring additional chances for rain.
Small craft advisories remain in effect for the nearshore zones of
Lake Huron as westerly winds this afternoon veer to northwest and
ramp up as colder air moves across the waters. Hazardous waves will
be accompanied by near-gales over the open waters. Gusty northwest
winds will persist through Monday before easing Tuesday and
Wednesday with the area in between two low pressure systems. The
next low will arive Wednesday night into Thursday bringing with it
the potential for a period of strong east winds.
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Sun OCT 23 2016
A dry 12z DTX sounding characterized by a dewpoint depression
pushing 45C near 7kft will guide the aviation forecast as a strong
waves dives out of Wisconsin. Clouds are prevalent along and north
of the surface low over WI and will expand eastward during the
mid/late as warm advection within SW wind increases. Forcing will be
sufficiently strong to produce a band of virga between about 23z and
midnight, but expect nothing more than brief light showers.
Confidence in tempo -shra impacting any one termal is low at this
time...most likely KFNT/KPTK but will wait for surface truth obs
before any TAF amendment. Regardless...any showers are unlikely to
be accompanied by a noteworthy vsby restriction. Passage of the low
will initially turn wind northerly before becoming gusty and backing
to the NW as cold air fills in. Borderline MVFR stratus expected by
predawn hours Monday.
For DTW...Clouds over northern Wisconsin and Lake Michigan will
expand southeast through this afternoon likely lowering cigs to 5kft
or less this afternoon. Northerly wind between 01-5z brings concerns
for noise abatement, especially after 03z. However, timing will be
sensitive to the exact track of the low since the center of the
low is currently forecast to pass directly over DTW.
//DTW Threshold Probabilities...
* Medium confidence in cigs aob 5kft this evening, then toward
sunrise Monday into Monday morning.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday FOR LHZ421-
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
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