Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 060452
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016


.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING FORECAST AS WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPS REMAIN MVFR CIGS EAST OF AREA AS THE FORECAST
BEGINS. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN 5-10KFT OR SO INTO SATURDAY AS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ENCROACHING ON THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT EDGE
INTO THE AREA AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. AFTER A BRIEF VEERING
OF WINDS TO THE WNW IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...EXPECT A
GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE REST OF THE FORECAST...CLIMBING INTO THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE MIDDAY SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME
AND BEST DAYTIME MIXING ENSUES.

FOR DTW...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND ANY CIGS AOB 5KFT WILL BE
THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE AS A 10KFT FOOT DECK TONIGHT IS REPLACED
BY 6-9KFT SCT-BKN DECK ON SATURDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

DISCUSSION...

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED AN 850 MB TEMP OF -12 C...A TOUCH COLDER
THAN MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLID LOW LEVEL (925-850 MB) THETA-E
RIDGE/(2+ G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY)/CONVERGENCE/ TRAVERSING THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY GENERATING SOME LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCED
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY (MAINLY NORTH OF I-
69)...DESPITE BEING EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT
AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH.

MAJORITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV OVER THE PLAINS WILL DROP INTO
TEXAS TONIGHT...WITH DEEP COLD LOW/PV ANOMALY ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO. STILL...A MODEST 500 MB HEIGHT FALL CENTER TO
TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT LOW LEVELS WILL BE
DRYING OUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW...AND EXPECTING SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY
ACTIVITY TO END WITH MAINLY JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A MODEST WARMUP...AS POTENT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/JET OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SPILLS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 500 MB
CLOSED LOW/CIRCULATION DEVELOPING. SUBSEQUENT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/DEVELOPING OCCLUSION/NARROW MOISTURE PLUME (PW VALUE AROUND
HALF AN INCH) ON SUNDAY SUPPORTING CHANCE POPS...EXPANDING TO LIKELY
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT COOLING EXPECTED TO TREND
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

PER 12Z EURO...925 MB TEMPS RISING TO -4 TO -2 C ON SATURDAY WITH
FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES (SIMILAR TO TODAY). HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S ARE THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS 925 MB TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE ZERO.
SUFFICIENT CLOUDS PERSISTING DURING NIGHT HOURS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS
IN THE 20S.

CHANGES COMING ABOUT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. A STRONG POLAR JET
DIVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH WHICH WILL
HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
MAKE A RUN AT 40F ONE LAST TIME BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S BY
WEDNESDAY...HOLDING THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK KEEPING SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT STRETCH.

MARINE...

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER FOR FEBRUARY
STANDARDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL EVENTUALLY
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY BEFORE AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE LOW SETTLES
AND STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...SF/DK
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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