Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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705
FXUS63 KDTX 270728
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE PLUMMETED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA WHERE CLEAR CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN OVER AS CLOUDS SHIFTED
SOUTH.  THIS MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL ALSO
SEE TEMPS DROP ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB AREA. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO RETREAT TO THE SOUTH AND CURRENTLY ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.  A CLEARING TREND IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN SLOW...THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE AREA IS SITUATED BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA AND ANOTHER WEAKER LOW TO THE WEST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE LOW OUT TO THE WEST ENCROACHES ON THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL START PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY GIVEN A LITTLE INSTABILITY WORKING
IN...THE BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH.
THE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING.   SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY TO BE DRY AS RIDGING BUILDS
BACK IN.  THIS RIDGING WILL NOT LAST LONG AS YET ANOTHER LOW LOOKS
TO SWEEP ACROSS BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.  WHILE COOLER TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE 50S...STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE 60S IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...EPSECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE HURON. WHILE
A STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST...WAVES APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WIND
WINDS HOLD CLOSER TO 10 OR 12 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A BULK
OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO AN INFLUX OF
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW...LOCATIONS NEAR THE OHIO
AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE COULD RECEIVE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
AS FORCING NEARER THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY LONGER
DURATION EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 123 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE CLEARING LINE OF MVFR STRATUS WILL NOW BE SLOW TO WORK SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS IS DUE TO A
PRONOUNCED...SYNOPTIC SCALE CONFLUENCE ZONE IN PLACE. MODEL DATA
REMAINS STEADFAST THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD ACCELERATE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 09Z THIS MORNING. DID FAVOR LATEST RUC DATA
TO HOLD ONTO A BKN/OVC MVFR CIG THROUGH 12Z AT THE DETROIT
TERMINALS. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO AMOUNT/LONGEVITY OF
DEBRIS CLOUD BELOW 5000 FT DURING THE MORNING. MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY
WITH A PERSISTENT...BUT RELATIVELY BENIGN EASTERLY WIND.

FOR DTW...TWO ITEMS...EXPECTING EASTERLY WINDSPEEDS TO DROP BELOW 7
KNOTS FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 10
KNOTS BY MID MORNING. OVC-BKN CIGS OF 2000 FT AGL TO HOLD THROUGH
12Z WITH FEW/SCT DEBRIS CLOUD TO STICK AROUND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
  IN AMOUNT OF CLOUD BETWEEN 12-18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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