Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 050957
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
457 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016


.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. GENERAL LOW VFR HAS OVERSPREAD SE MICHIGAN IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WITH LOWER CEILINGS FOCUSED WITHIN THE SURFACE
TROUGH ITSELF. BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY WILL YIELD HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF MVFR FROM KPTK NORTH WITH VFR MOST LIKELY TO PREVAIL SOUTH.
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE INVOF FNT
WHICH WILL WARRANT MONITORING AS SNOW SHOWERS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED
FOR A TIME DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW HINTED AT POTENTIAL
WITH MVFR SHSN AT FNT FLANKED BY VFR SHSN AT MBS/PTK. LIGHT WIND
WILL SHIFT TO WNW BEHIND THE TROUGH.

FOR DTW...EXPECATION IS THAT CIGS REMAIN LOW VFR. HOWEVER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE TROUGH ITSELF WORKS
ACROSS THROUGH ROUGHLY 01-03Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

DISCUSSION...

BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL NOT BE FOR A
LACK OF WEATHER FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...JUST THAT
THEY WILL PRODUCE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IF ANY AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO HOLD A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. READINGS WILL EXTEND MORE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING OUR NEXT SOLID
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE FIRST OF TWO WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL EXIT THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE MORNING AND PULL A FILLING OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THIS WILL ACT MORE AS A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL SCOUR THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH EASTWARD WHILE
OTHERWISE ONLY ABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY AUGMENTED BY SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO AGREE THAT SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WITH SOME SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE THAT
COULD SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES WITHIN THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL SQUASH CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO ABOUT 850 MB WHICH
SUGGESTS HOLDING THE LINE ON JUST A CLOUD MENTION FOR NOW.

THE DYING FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE
SYSTEM MAINTAINS DECENT STRUCTURE ALOFT BUT IS FEATURELESS IN TERMS
OF SURFACE PRESSURE. HIGH STATIC STABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH A
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY AND MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS
ANYWHERE EXCEPT FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE UPPER
WAVE DOES WHAT IT CAN WITH CHINTZY PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE MID
LEVELS WHILE THE GULF REMAINS CLOSED BY HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING FROM
EASTERN TEXAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. MODEL SOLUTIONS THEREFORE LOOK ON
TARGET IN KEEPING THINGS DRY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE CURRENT GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW IS THE ONE THAT WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IT WILL BE A
CONSIDERABLY LARGER AND STRONGER SYSTEM COMPARED THOSE OF TODAY AND
SATURDAY...AND IT WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP SOME MODIFIED
CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE GULF COAST BY THEN TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS.
STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION WHICH FAVORS THE WARM SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ACROSS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 40S OHIO BORDER TO UPPER 30S NORTHERN
THUMB LOOK VERY REACHABLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT GRADUAL CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT AS WET BULB AND DIURNAL COOLING BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. THIS APPEARS BETTER REPRESENTED BY
NAM SOUNDINGS AT THIS POINT BUT WHICH ARE STILL CLOSE TO 0C IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN BY MONDAY MORNING. THE WARM PROFILE AND LATE
CHANGE OVER WILL KEEP ACCUMULATION MINIMAL.

EXTENDED MODEL SIMULATIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED LOW
SOLUTION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF OFFERS PERSISTENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS RIGHT OVER SE MICHIGAN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN ACTIVE
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ASSUMING
THE SYSTEM DOES LIFT AWAY DURING WEDNESDAY...THEN COLDER AIR WILL
TAKE ITS PLACE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS
AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM SOUTHEASTERLY
EARLY SUNDAY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......JVC


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