Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDTX 212315
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
715 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions can be expected throughout the forecast even though a
shortwave pivot southeast through the area overnight will bring a
period of BKN ceilings in the 6000-8000 kft area. Once this system
passes the area, expect SCT diurnal cumulus on Sunday and clear
skies by the end of the forecast. Light/variable winds tonight will
become NNE at 10-12 knots Sunday.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

DISCUSSION...

Highly amplified and slowly evolving longwave pattern will nudge
east over the next 12 hours as the cyclonic gyre over the lower
great lakes ingests additional energy diving out of Ontario tonight
and closes off over the northern Appalachians. This place Southeast
Michigan in a favorable position for prolonged dry northerly flow
for the balance of the day on Sunday. Increasingly dry air and
strengthening subsidence will provide clear skies for the balance of
the day Sunday, with the exception of some morning cloud debris
associated with the aforementioned Ontario wave. Light cold
advection taking place within the northerly gradient flow will lower
850mb temperatures by a couple of degrees leading to highs similar
to today in spite of the increased insolation. The exception will be
the Thumb region where marine-modified air will limit mixing depths
and therefore limit highs to the low to mid 60s. A similar story for
Monday as the pattern trudges eastward. The exit of the low-level
thermal trough as columnar warmth increases beneath the ridge will
raise the potential ceiling on high temperatures. At the same time,
the antecedent dry air characterized by dewpoints in the low 40s and
very strong subsidence will once again scour the column of any cloud
save for some stray cirrus streaming in around the closed low over
the east coast. Highs will easily reach the mid to upper by
Monday afternoon 70s in this regime.

The extended forecast looks relatively wet starting midweek. Expect
increasing clouds Tuesday afternoon/evening ahead of a developing
area of low pressure over the central plains and midwest. By
Wednesday afternoon/evening this low will begin its transit through
the Great Lakes region in earnest...bringing in abundant warm/humid
air and better chances for showers and thunderstorms. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue through the remainder of the
week.

MARINE...

High pressure and a weak pressure gradient will maintain the light
winds across the local waters this weekend. Light southerly winds
and warmer temperatures arrive early next week...leading to a chance
of showers and thunderstorms by mid week.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...JVC/DE
MARINE.......CB


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.