Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 231928
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
311 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface cold front has slipped just south of the border with
elevated front quickly on its heals.  Any shower activity with front
is light and quickly dissipating.  Low level moisture still remains
behind the front and with peak heating of the day a few light
showers will still be possible before evening,  mainly Detroit are
on south.  Large high pressure north in Canada will slowly slide
southeast across Ontario through Saturday.  Northeast flow will
advect in cooler and drier air that will bring partial clearing into
thumb region overnight, however, low and mid level moisture will
remain in place across the rest of the area until Saturday afernoon
when surface ridging noses in bringing quick clearing from the
northeast.  Clear skies will remain in place through most Sunday.
Mid and upper level clouds ahead of next system will begin effecting
the Saginaw Valley Sundy evening and quickly overspread the rest of
the area Sunday night.  Chance for showers will also be increasing
nw to se Sunday night.  Temperature will be at or slightly above
average this weekend with most highs in the low 70s and most lows in
the 50s

An influx of low to mid level moisture and an approaching cold front
will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday into
Tuesday. The chance for precipitation will continue through
Wednesday, as low pressure moves east across Northern
Michigan/Ontario. High pressure builds back in behind the front for
the later half of the week, bringing dry conditions to the region.
Temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 60s early next week
before slowly warming up into the lower 70s closer to the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...

Brisk northeast flow within an unstable boundary layer over Lake
Huron will persist through the evening hours. Gusts in excess of 25
with waves challenging 5 feet will be the norm, especially over the
central basin into Saginaw Bay.  Winds relax overnight through
Saturday as high pressure settles into the region - but will remain
onshore through the day keeping waves up some.  Light wind
conditions are expected Sunday. Stronger southeast flow will
commence Sunday night as the next storm system approaches from the
west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri SEP 23 2016

AVIATION...

Post frontal ceilings are slowly climbing the ladder this afternoon.
The lowest ceilings will be around Pontiac within the highlands. The
low clouds are having difficulty making inroads into the Detroit
terminals. Therefore, anticipate MVFR ceilings this afternoon before
scattering out overnight. Farther north, the the lowest layers
are starting to mix out. Otherwise, some light fog is anticipated
from PTK north a s skies partially clear. Northeast winds will
persist through the forecast period.

For DTW...surface front has slipped through the immediate region;
however, the elevated frontal surface remains in place this
afternoon. While IFR ceilings are not expected, ceilings below 5kft
are expected to overspread and persist through most of the remaining
operating day. Saturday will be characterized by mainly mid-clouds.
The persistent northeast flow will be strong enough to force
continued NE flow operations today and possibly high enough for a
wave or two Saturday.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* High for ceilings below 5000 ft this afternoon

* Medium for ceilings below 5000ft this evening through 06z

* High for Northeast winds in excess of 7 knots this afternoon will
  dictate NE operations.

* Medium for Northeast winds around 7 knots are possible again
  Saturday possibly resulting in NE configuration once again.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRC/AM
MARINE.......Mann
AVIATION.....Mann


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.



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