Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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586
FXUS63 KDTX 310356
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1156 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016


.AVIATION...

SE Michigan airspace will remain under the influence of a dry and
stable high pressure system through this TAF period.  This will
ensure skies remain clear tonight and early Tuesday.  Brief period
of late day diurnal cu possible Tuesday afternoon, beneath a
thickening cirrus deck.  Eastward movement of the high will bring a
wind shift from west-northwest this evening to northeast by the
morning period.  Winds will carry a light /AOB 10 kts/ easterly
component through the latter half of the Tuesday.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 FT or less Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

DISCUSSION...

Overall quiet weather taking us through Wednesday before the next
frontal passage brings showers and thunderstorms back to lower
Michigan. A more active pattern sets up over the weekend as
northwest flow looks to send a series of waves down through the
region. This may result in periodic showers through the weekend.

For this evening, a solid cu field has developed as peak heating was
aided by a passing mid level wave. There has been a response at the
surface in the way of a weak trough developing along eastern
Michigan. In addition there is a lake breeze starting to head
inland. Even with dewpoints in the 50s and cloud bases around 6kft,
this boundary has already set off a couple small and brief showers
over Ontario. It`s not out of the question it may also aide the
surface and mid level troughs in developing an isolated light rain
shower over our eastern counties thus a few hours of 20 pop will
linger into this evening.

High pressure will build into the region at the surface tonight
allowing winds to relax and skies to clear out. With dewpoints
falling to around 50 tonight, temperatures will easily fall with
some cooler locations possibly touching the upper 40s.

A longwave trough will deepen over the northern and central plains
on Tuesday resulting in down stream ridge amplification over the
Great Lakes. With high pressure at the surface still over the area,
this should ensure mostly sunny skies through the day. Slight
southeasterly flow will keep high temperatures limited, but since
the cold front was not strong enough or deep enough to scour out the
warm layer aloft, diurnal mixing will once again bring highs into
the low 80s.

Things start to change on Wednesday as the now mature surface and
mid level cyclone releases out of the plains into southwest Ontario.
This will send a cold front toward lower Michigan, passing through
the area early Thursday morning. Flow will become southwesterly late
Wednesday as a warm front lifts through the area allow some moisture
return. Looks like we could fall far enough south of the system to
get the right entrance region of the jet to pass over with the front
overnight. In addition the models are hinting at possible shortwaves
riding up the boundary ejecting out of the southern stream jet which
could enhance the shower and thunderstorm activity further. Does not
look overly great for severe storms at this point, but we`ll see how
things come together in the coming days.

Scattered rain showers will hang around through Thursday afternoon
as cold front pushes through. Cold front will drop temperatures in
its wake back near the season norm.  The next low pressure system is
quick on it heels....currently scheduled to push into southeast
Michigan overnight Friday...resulting in chances of showers and
thunderstorms for the weekend. High temps appear to stay locked in
the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s through the extended period.

MARINE...

Surface high pressure will be in control of marine weather tonight
through Tuesday and maintain favorable wind and wave conditions over
all areas. Light southeast flow will develop Tuesday night and
increase modestly Wednesday as the high moves into Quebec and the
next low pressure system organizes over the upper midwest. Small
Craft Advisory conditions remain unlikely prior to a stronger cold
front forecast to cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
This front will provide the next chance for thunderstorms and
potential for westerly wind gusts around 25 knots Thursday before
high pressure returns again Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...DRK/DE
MARINE.......BT


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.



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