Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 290517
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
117 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Tonight, Low-level jet increases to 30 kt in response to shortwave
approaching from the Northern Plains and becomes oriented toward the
far western CWA. Increasing waa and theta-e advection along with
MUCAPE values increasing to near 1000 j/kg could generate some sct
shra/tsra late tonight over far west. Farther e, slow moving sfc
high pres ridge and axis of min precipitable water around 2/3rds of
an inch suggest leaning toward the low side of guidance for mins
tonight. Expect interior locations over the e to fall into the 40s.
Even over the central, a few spots could drop blo 50F if clouds are
slow to increase. Temps radiating through dewpoints could also
produce patchy fog over inland central and eastern areas of CWA.

On Mon, series of weak shortwaves in westerly flow aloft will bring
the approach of a cold front from west late Mon aftn or Mon evening.
Theta-e advection aloft ahead of the front could result in sct
showers and isold tsra as early as Mon morning. At the least,
consensus of models indicates good deal of mid-high clouds with a
few light showers. NAM/GFS and various high res guidance point to
weakening cluster of tsra moving into west half of Upper Michigan on
Mon morning. Extent of convection on Mon morning dictates how much
instability is present during the aftn as the front approaches.
Models show MLCAPEs increasing to 1000-1500 j/kg in the afternoon
generally over the west half of the CWA. Strong storms certainly are
possible with that extent of instability but effective shear is
barely over 20 kts so would seem that severe potential is low attm.
Mon looks to be a warm and humid day with dwpnts pushing over 60
degrees. Max temps near 80 or into low 80s seems good possibility
with even just a few breaks in the clouds during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

A low moving across Hudson Bay will drag a cold front across the
area between 00Z and 18Z Tue, with a weak shortwave possible
trailing just behind the front. Main question with the system is
potential for strong storms and coverage over the south-central CWA.
Could see some stronger storms over the west Mon evening depending
on possible morning/afternoon convection and cloud cover, but with
weak shear the overall threat is minimal. Models have slowed with
exiting the precip on Tue, with models now showing potential for
isolated to scattered showers over the southeastern CWA into Tue
afternoon. Lowest precip coverage and amounts look to be over the
south-central, with good chances of seeing measurable precip
elsewhere.

High pressure building into the area Wed and Thu should keep mostly
dry conditions, but models now show a shortwave trough skirting the
eastern CWA on Wed as 850mb temps fall to 6-8C. This may lead to
some isolated showers and should increase cloud cover, especially
closer to Lake Superior with NNW winds. Will see some cooler nights
Tue night through Thu night.

Looks dry until later Sat at the earliest, maybe even until late
Sunday, when a low pressure system will trek northwest of the CWA
and bring a cold front in.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 117 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Radiation fog could develop at SAW overnight under sfc high pressure
and near calm wind where MVFR vsby and brief IFR vsby was included.
Scattered showers/t-storms may also develop at IWD/CMX this morning
and at SAW in the afternoon with increasing warm advection ahead of
approaching trough over the Northern Plains so VCSH was mentioned.
There is less confidence in thunderstorm potential and was not
included in the TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 353 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Expect winds mostly under 20kt through the middle of next week as
pres gradient remains generally weak. If stronger winds do occur,
Tue/Wed would be the time frame as a high pres ridge builds toward
the area in the wake of cold front passage Mon night/early Tue
morning. Eastern Lake Superior would be favored for the stronger
winds.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...Voss


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