Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 301853

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough over the upper
Great Lakes which remains through 00z Mon. Looks quiet for this
forecast period and dry and will continue to go with persistence for
this forecast. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Surface ridging will remain over the Great Lakes through the
beginning of the long range forecast with a continued warming trend
into the middle of next week. Overall upper flow will be generally
zonal along the US/Canadian border with shortwaves embedded in this
flow bringing shower and thunderstorms chances to the upper lakes
during the mid/late week time frame.

The most noticeable change for the upcoming week will be the return
to hot and humid weather for the Tue-Thu time frame.  Models show a
weakening shortwave rippling eastward towards the great lakes on
Tuesday. With a rebound in low level moisture by that
time...dewpoints in the mid 60s...and diurnal heating it should be
enough to trigger at least scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.

Wednesday now appears to be mainly dry and very warm with subsidence
behind the Tuesday shortwave.

Timing issues still remain with a more substantial shortwave/cold
front moving from the plains into the Upper Great Lakes late week.
GFS continues to be the quickest with these features bringing them
through during the day Thursday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms accompanying their passage. ECMWF and other medium
range guidance are a little slower with the timing...more late
Thursday night into early Friday. Given the timing uncertainty...a
broadbrush approach to pops during the Thu/Thu Night time period
remains the best course of action at this time.

Once the front passes...temperatures will return back to normal by
late Friday through next weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Expect VFR conditions and light winds to prevail this fcst period
with high pressure dominating.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at
159 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

High pressure will linger across Lake Superior into early next week.
This will keep winds around or less than 15 kts through the entire
forecast period.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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