Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 220948
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
448 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT FM NORTHERN PLAINS
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE IS VCNTY OF
JAMES BAY WHILE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR WASHINGTON DC.
WARMER AIR IS STREAMING OVERHEAD BUT LOW-LEVEL WARMING HAS BEEN
SLOWER AS DOME OF COLD AIR IS STUBBORN TO LEAVE. TWO AREAS WHERE
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS MORE PRONOUCED ARE OVER FAR EAST CWA...VCNTY
OF KERY...AS SEEN IN THE T/TD OF 35/29. COMPARE THAT TO THE FIRE WX
RAWS SITES JUST TO THE WEST OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND ALGER COUNTY...WITH
DWPNTS STILL IN THE TEENS WHILE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. OTHER
AREA THAT IS SEEING SOME MOISTENING IS OVER FAR SW UPR MICHIGAN...
WITH KIWD SHOWING A T/TD OF 30/27 AT 09Z. DRIZZLE CHANCES ARE THE
MAIN ISSUE TODAY AS GRADUAL WARMING CONTINUES.

LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY CONTINUES EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE EAST COAST DRIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC. WEAKENING SW WIND WILL KEEP
TRANSPORTING GREATER MOISTURE FM THE SW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
KEPT CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR TWO MAIN AREAS WHERE
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALREADY NOTED. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
AROUND BUT TOO MUCH DRY AIR BLO CLOUD BASE TO HAVE ANY DRIZZLE. WARM
AIR ADVECTION BACKS OFF SOME BY AFTN...SO HAVE ENDED DRIZZLE CHANCES
ALL AREAS BY THAT TIME. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE...REACHING THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTN. FIRST TIME IN OVER 10
DAYS OF SEEING TEMPS REACHING THE 30S...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FIRST
TIME SINCE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NOVEMBER THAT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL END UP
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHING MOVES TO NORTHERN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHILE ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST FM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT AHEAD OF WHAT ENDS UP BEING AN
ELONGATED TROUGH DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. LINGERING DRY
LOW-LEVELS WILL BE NON-ISSUE TONIGHT WITH THE MOISTENING THAT OCCURS
THROUGHOUT TODAY. SO...EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE AND EVEN
SOME LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL AS DWPNTS
CLIMB TO THE FREEZING MARK OR EVEN ABOVE BY LATE TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING THE DRIZZLE WILL BE OVER CNTRL CWA WITH UPSLOPE
LIFT HELPING OUT THE CHANCES...AND OVER THE EAST CWA WITH ADDED
MOISTURE OFF LK MICHIGAN DUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY START OFF NIGHT STEADY...BUT BEGIN TO RISE ONCE
THE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL STILL LOOKS
QUIET ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AT THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE DRIZZLE ENDS UP
MORE OF AN ISSUE EITHER TODAY OR TONIGHT...IT COULD BECOME TRICKY ON
ROADS THAT ARE CLEAR OF SNOW MAINLY DUE TO THE COLD GROUND TEMPS.
THEY ARE ALREADY SEEING THIS DOWN IN PARTS OF WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IF THE DRIZZLE DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A VERY ACTIVE WEEK IS IN STORE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A
POTENT MID-LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING A DECENT SURGE OF WARM AIR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE
WEEKEND...BRINGING THE AREA BACK INTO ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
A SHORT PERIOD. WITH THIS WILL COME A DECENT ROUND OF RAIN ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
QUICK TRANSITION BACK TO WINTER WILL THEN TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...BRINGING STRONG CAA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WORKS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE QUIETEST PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR ABOVE 900 HPA AND THE LACK OF ANY
APPRECIABLE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD LIMIT ANY DEEPER PRECIP
POTENTIAL. THE ONLY CONCERN IS A CHANCE FOR DZ/FZDZ ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA SOUTH LATE IN THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SET TO BEGIN SUNDAY AS
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TAKE AIM ON THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. FIRST...A LOOK AT THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TRACKS ESE TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS TX SATURDAY EVENING WILL
EJECT NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MERGING PIECES OF ENERGY
COMBINED WITH A QUICKLY DEVELOPING 120KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL
INDUCE A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE FROM EASTERN UPPER MI TO NORTHERN LOWER
MI BY 12Z MONDAY.

UPPER MI FINDS ITSELF CAUGHT IN A CONVOLUTED PATTERN SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE TWO SYSTEMS CONSOLIDATE OVER THE AREA. OVERALL SYNOPTIC
FORCING REMAINS LIMITED TO START THE DAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT RESULTING IN A DEEPENING MOIST LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING CHANCES OF FZDZ/DZ IN THE MORNING...AND RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES DURING THE DAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE INFLUENCES FROM SE
WINDS OFF LAKE MI. TEMPS THROUGH THE MOIST LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR SUPER-COOLED LIQUID...INTRODUCING CONTINUED CONCERN FOR
FZDZ/FZRA IN THE MORNING. GIVEN OUR RECENT SUB-FREEZING
STRETCH...CLEARED ROADS MAY SEE SOME ICING EVEN AS TEMPS WARM INTO
THE 30S TO LOW 40S DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LATEST MDOT ROAD SENSORS
ARE SHOWING SUB-FREEZING TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 24 INCHES BELOW THE
ROAD AND SUB-20F TEMPS DOWN TO AT LEAST 6 INCHES FOR NEARLY ALL
UPPER MI HIGHWAYS. WILL THEREFORE EXTEND THE FZDZ/FZRA POTENTIAL
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL AIR TEMPS WARM WELL-ABOVE FREEZING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...DECENT LIFT UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER
JET WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WARMING TEMPS THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN WILL RESULT IN A PTYPE OF ALL RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ALL BUT THE WESTERN CWA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE DECENT FORCING AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SURPASS 0.75IN ACROSS THE EAST HALF. THIS
MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER
MID-LEVEL SUPPORT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER JET BEFORE
INCREASING PRECIP AMOUNTS ANY FURTHER.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY STARTS THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW AS
THE SFC LOW REACHES EASTERN UPPER MI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM MERGE...THE NEW DEEPER TROUGH NEARLY
STALLS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN IMPRESSIVE 140KT UPPER JET
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING 120KT JET MOVING
OVER QUEBEC WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A DEEPER SFC LOW OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT TROUGH NEAR SEATTLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL DIG INTO THE DEPARTING THE TROUGH...FURTHER SLOWING
ITS MOVEMENT. ALL OF THIS COMES TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A LAGGING
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AND DEFORMATION ZONE OVER UPPER MI ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT KICKING IN WITH N/NNW
WINDS...THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS
HAVE BOTH COME IN WITH MUCH HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA ON MONDAY. THOUGH THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI...THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT PAINTS HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS WELL. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...THEN
CONTINUE PRESSING EASTWARD. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALL BUT SOME OF THE
SHORELINE LOCATIONS OF THE WEST HALF SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICK SNOW RATIOS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD FALL FOR MOST OF THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY JUMP
ON BOARD WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE QUITE YET...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO AT LEAST INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT. THE EASTERN CWA
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATIONS...BUT A LATER TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW COMBINED WITH A LESS FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE FORCING WILL
KEEP AMOUNTS LOWER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS AS AT LEAST SOME WINTER WX HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE AND LAKE
INFLUENCE WILL GENERATE SNOW FOR THE N TO NNW WIND SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. BY
TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 5KFT...CUTTING OFF MUCH OF THE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ITS TRACK AND STRENGTH ARE TOO
VARIABLE IN THE MODELS TO PIN DOWN LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE LOW AND INDUCES LES FOR THE NNW WIND
SNOW BELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A SLOWLY MODERATING
850 HPA AIRMASS WITH TEMPS -15 TO -20C WILL RESULT IN THE WEATHER
FEELING MORE LIKE CHRISTMAS THAN THANKSGIVING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE TEENS FOR AT LEAST THE WEST AND CENTRAL. BY
FRIDAY...ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING MODERATING CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LLWS IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET REALLY INCREASES 1-2KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEFT GUSTS UP TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUICK DROP IN CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH KSAW HAVING THE LOWEST VALUES THAT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE IFR RANGE LATE. WITH THESE LOW CLOUDS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.
CURRENT SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN HIGH THOUGH AT 10-15F...SO
WILL NOT MENTION FZDZ ATTM. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES ON SAT WILL BE
LOW MVFR OR IFR AT ALL SITES AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SW GALES ARE DIMINISHING TO 30 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 30 KTS BY THE AFTN WITH LOSS OF TIGHTER SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN 30
KTS OR LESS. WINDS VARIABLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH CROSSES LAKE
SUPERIOR. DEEPENING LOW THEN MOVES TO EAST OF LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES 40-45 KTS MONDAY AFTN INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR BTWN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     263-264-266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07/JLA
MARINE...JLA







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