Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 280525
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
125 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Radar imagery shows area of showers over the southeast portion of
Upper Mi generally dissipating and moving east under weakening waa
pattern. Focus now into tonight will shift to area of showers over
the western U.P. which is being supported by increasing q-vector
convergence ahead of mid-level trough and associated shortwave
lifting ene through the Northern Plains toward the Upper Great
Lakes.

With the track of shortwave trough expected to lift more over
western and north central Superior and Ontario tonight models
indicate the strongest q-vector convergence will also stay generally
over the western and northern part of lake and points to the north.
Radar trends and models suggest best chance for sct showers to
numerous shra will likely be confined to far wrn counties of Upper
Mi through this evening into early overnight on edge of best
forcing/dynamics. As shortwave trough lifts well north of area late
tonight, strong q-vector divergence and resulting subsidence is fcst
to spread in fm west and will end showers after midnight for all
areas. There is a concern of some fog forming later tonight as low-
level moisture remains trapped near the sfc under increasing
subsidence...especially with potential for partial clearing.
Southeast upslope flow may also aid fog formation this evening over
central and eastern fcst area where ground will still be moist from
today`s rainfall.

Rising 5h heights and increasing mid-lvl subsidence should result in
dry conditions across the CWA on Sunday. Expect highs mainly in the
70s under mostly sunny/partly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 445 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Low confidence for Sun night into Mon morning as models vary widely
in handling precip associated with weak shortwave energy and WAA.
Greater confidence on Mon afternoon into early Tue morning as a
strong upper waves moves across Canada and drags a SFC trough/cold
front through the area. Main forcing will be well N of the CWA, so
not certain all areas will see significant precip. Best precip
chances appear to be out of the south-central. Not out of the
question that we could see a few strong storms Mon afternoon/evening
over the west, but that will be highly dependent on morning and early
afternoon precip, which is uncertain.

Tue into Fri will see increasing SFC ridging, leading to fair
weather for the most part. Could see increased cloud cover and maybe
some isolated showers on Wed as a thermal trough drops through and
brings 850mb temps down to around 6C. Otherwise, no significant
precip until possibly Fri night and Sat.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 123 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Weak low pressure sliding across the area will bring continued low
cloud cover through much of the night. There may be some isolated
rain showers at KIWD and KCMX early in the TAF period otherwise
conditions should remain dry. Ceilings at each of the TAF sites are
expected to be MVFR to IFR through much of the overnight hours,
before lifting through the day today as drier air slides into the
area. There may be some fog that forms late overnight if breaks in
the clouds occur. Overall confidence is medium on coverage and
density of the fog; therefore, did not go as low as some guidance
suggests. Improvement will occur at all TAF sites this morning
with VFR this aftn and evening.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 359 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Winds into next week should remain at 20 kts or less as the pressure
gradient remains weak.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Voss


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