Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 231924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
324 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

12Z raobs/latest wv imagery and RAP analysis show a closed upr lo
sinking slowly swd thru the Upr MS River Valley under general upr
troffing stretching fm Quebec into the Plains downstream of an upr
rdg in wrn NAmerica. There is a good deal of cld cover stretching
into the Upr Lks under the upr troffing, and there have been some
sct showers mainly over the scentral where wv imagery hints there
may be a weaker shrtwv lifting nwd toward the Upr Lks within the ssw
flow aloft e of the upr trof axis.

Main fcst concerns thru Wed focus on pops for mainly the se cwa,
which wl remain under a ssw flow alf e of the slowly progressive
upr trof axis.

Tngt...Although the main closed h5 lo is fcst to continue to drift
slowly s and into nrn Missouri by 12Z Wed, most of the guidance
indicate some hier mid lvl rh/large scale forcing wl impact roughly
the se half of the cwa, where the winds alf wl be out of the sw on
the ern flank of upr trof stretching fm James Bay to the slowly
departing closed upr lo. Since the llvl flow wl remain weakly cyc,
wl retain some pops in this area. But absence of any daytime
heating, exit of closed lo/sharpest forcing to the s, and concerns
about impact of some dry air in the h9-85 lyr supporting more breaks
in the clds to the ne and e wl restrict pops into the chc range.
Even over the w where the forcing wl be weak or even negative,
guidance shows a good deal of mid cld lingering, which wl limit the
diurnal temp fall.

Wed...As the closed lo to the s and upr trof axis drift slowly to
the ese, the guidance shows mid lvl drying/larger scale subsidence
pressing slowly to the ese as well. But since some large scale
qvector cnvgc/deeper mstr wl linger to the e of the upr trof axis
and over the se portion of the cwa thru most of the day, wl retain
some chc pops there thru the day as well. With earlier arrival of
larger scale drying/subsidence, expect at least some sunshine over
the w. Expect temps to rise aoa 60 away fm cooling off Lk Sup in
llvl ne flow.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

No high impact weather is expected through the long term. Only item
to mention specifically is that there`s a slim chance of some frost
over far western Upper Michigan Wed night. Otherwise, looks like
chances for some light rain over at least portions of the CWA in
each period with temps near or below normal. Did not make any
changes to blended initialization.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 235 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

Expect generally VFR cigs into this evng, when some lower MVFR cigs
are likely to dvlp at the TAF sites with upslope llvl nne flow and
loss of daytime heating/mixing. Upstream obs over ne MN/adjoining
Ontario show a good deal of lo cld, so lower IFR cigs may impact IWD
for a time. With the arrival of drier air on Wed and daytime
heating/mixing, cigs wl rebound into the VFR range.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

Expect winds under 20 kts into this coming weekend as a relatively
flat pres gradient dominates the Upper Lakes.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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