Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 291924
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.

MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.

THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO FOLOW THE FRONT
AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
     014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07


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