Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 030725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07


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