Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 050517
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
117 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE IS STRETCHING FROM A HIGH OVER TX TO WRN UPPER
MI...WRAPPING INTO WRN QUEBEC AROUND A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
LOWER MI. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...WHILE SERN SECTIONS HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER. SOME CU IS BREAKING
OUT OVER ERN AND SCENTRAL UPPER MI...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IS
AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD MEANDERING DISTURBANCE. UP TO 500J/KG
OF CAPE IS BEING ANALYZED BY THE RAP OVER ERN UPPER MI...WHERE MANY
HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BREAKING OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIE OFF TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OVER THAT DIRECTION AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. SHOULD
SEE FOG TONIGHT OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI AS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SE.

SAT LOOKS WARMER AS SW FLOW INCREASES AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM
AROUND 15C TODAY TO 18-21C BY 00Z SUN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE...AND EVEN 90 IN BARAGA. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING W OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN UPPER
MI. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES W OF THE AREA SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WRN UPPER MI. THE HIGH-RES WRF ARW AND NMM ALONG WITH THE GFS HAVE
THE MOST PRECIP...BUT THE GFS IS VERY MUCH AN OUTLIER AND THE WRFS
ARE MORE REALISTIC. OTHER MODELS ARE DRY FOR THE MOST PART. AS
ALWAYS IN THESE SITUATIONS...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP IS
MORE LIKELY. IF AFTERNOON CONVECTION DOES FORM...SOME OF THE STORMS
OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS MUCAPES
WILL BE 1000-2000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS. THINK
SEVERE CHANCES ARE LOW...BUT IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MODELS SUGGEST THAT WITH A GRADUAL PATTERN PROGRESSION...THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE CNTRL CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SO...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY WED-FRI WITH MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER.

SAT NIGHT...WITH SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO LIFT
INTO THE AREA THAT COULD TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA. LOWER END CHANCE
POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO WRN UPPER MI.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SW
SASK LIFTING INTO MANITOBA WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE. A SFC TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO NRN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY MOVING THROUGH UPPER MI BY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON. ALTHOUGH SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY BRUSH THE WRN CWA...EXPECT
CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH DURING THE PEAK HEATING AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY TO MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
20C...TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO POSSIBLY 90 IN SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF HEIGHT
FALLS...LOW LEVEL CONV NEAR THE FRONT AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF WEAKER
SHORTWAVES APPROACHING THE AREA IN SW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS WILL
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS. WITH MUCAPE VALUES TO AT LEAST 1K J/KG AND 0-
6KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KNOTS...SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 2.0
INCHES...AND POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING CONVECTION FROM 45 KT SW
INFLOW...PER CORFIDI VECTORS...HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE GREATER HAZARD.

MON...SOME SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA MAY LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY OVER
THE ERN CWA...PER SLOWER ECMWF. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
WILL MOVE IN WITH WRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

TUE-FRI...PCPN CHANCES ARE MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN LARGER MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF SHORTWAVES AND THE
INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. FOR
NOW...ONLY LOWER END SHRA CHANCES WERE INCLUDED...PER MDLS
CONSENSUS. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY MOVE IN...PER ECMWF WITH 850 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO 3C...TO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED RAIN BY FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SE SHOULD RESULT IN FOG AND SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KSAW WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE ARRIVING MOISTURE POOL AND DUE TO BETTER UPSLOPING. AT
KSAW...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. A PERIOD OF MVFR VIS IS EXPECTED AT KCMX
AROUND SUNRISE...BUT KIWD WILL PROBABLY STAY VFR WITH A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THRU THE NIGHT. FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT COMES ON MONDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE PATCHY ACROSS THE LAKE UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS


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