Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 290843
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
443 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES ITS
TREK EASTWARD TODAY...CONTINUING THE FLOW OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CWA. SOME BANDED PRECIP HAS BEEN SPIRALING NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN CWA SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUOUS
DRY NE FLOW...SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 15F
ARE LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. IN FACT...SFC
OBS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEB CAM IMAGES INDICATE THAT NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DAY BREAK BEFORE THE
REMAINING WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGING TRACKS SE ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH SOME HIGH-BASED
CUMULUS INLAND CANT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. LESS CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHTER WINDS SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND. COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON...THESE TEMPS WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND
BEYOND WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA WHICH
WILL IN TURN INDUCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS ERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WILL REACH ITS PEAK AMPLITUDE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A
GENERALLY DRY NW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE
MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS AND CANADIAN...SUGGEST POTENTIALLY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING FORCED MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE
REACHES PEAK AMPLITUDE. AN ASSOC COLD FRONT PASSAGE WL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE EITHER LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND COULD BRING A CHC FOR -SHRA
TUE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN ON MOST DAYS AS NOTED ON MODEL
SOUNDING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF .5 INCH OR LESS MOST DAYS
WILL SUPPORT RATHER LARGE TEMP RANGES FROM NIGHTLY MINS TO AFTN
MAXES. THRU THE WEEKEND...TEMPS AT NIGHT WILL LIKELY DROP TO OR BLO
FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR COLDER AREAS. AFTN TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
UPPER 50S AROUND 60F AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME WARMING WILL BEGIN MON...BUT PROBABLY MORE SO TUE AS W
TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD ARRIVE TUE NIGHT. HOW WARM TUE TEMPS GET WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT SOME LOCATIONS COULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S. IF QUICKER 00Z GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY WITH FRONTAL
TIMING TUE AFTERNOON...CLOUDS MAY ALSO ROLL IN QUICKER KEEPING TEMPS
COOLER THAN EXPECTED ON TUE. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WED...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK IN FM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY
THU AS THE 8H THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS E.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON
BAY AND A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY/FAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS CONTINUED NE WINDS UNDER 20 KTS FOR MOST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL FUNNEL AND
ACCENTUATE THE NE FLOW SAT WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
SHARPEST. AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. SW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KLUBER


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